10838 SW 78th Ct · Liberty Triangle, FL 34476

$165,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,102 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 117 Days on market

Built 1988 10,019 sqft lot $150/sqft · 15% below area Est $194k · 15% under $123/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Major updates include a new roof (2026), A/C (2025), and electrical service (2022). This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,102 sq ft plus a 20' x 24' garage, with a comfortable, functional layout for easy living. Enjoy a bright 14' x 17' Florida room addition and a 9' x 16' lanai for outdoor relaxation. Located in Palm Cay, a gated 55+ community in Southwest Ocala, residents enjoy 24-hour security, golf cart-friendly streets, and an active lifestyle. Amenities include a clubhouse, pool, tennis court, and a variety of social activities. The monthly fee covers trash service, security, and community access. Optional RV/boat storage may available for a reasonable fee. Convenient to I-75, the World Equestrian Center, shopping, dining, and medical facilities, with easy access to Gainesville and Orlando.

Key facts

• Replaced a/c
• Brand new roof
• Florida room

Tags

• BRAND NEW ROOF
• REPLACED A/C
• UPDATED ELECTRIC SERVICE
• FLORIDA ROOM
• LANAI
• SECURE GATED COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $165 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (0.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.5% in Liberty Triangle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 852 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $165k implies a 211% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,150 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.28%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $193,838
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -14.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10881 SW 79th Ter	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,112 (+1%)	4mo	$145,000	$130	90
8157 SW 108th Loop	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,101 (-0%)	2mo	$175,000	$159	86
8045 SW 108th Loop	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,148 (+4%)	8mo	$182,500	$159	72
8108 SW 108th Place Rd	0.36mi	2/2.0	992 (-10%)	4mo	$160,000	$161	64
10806 SW 81st Court Rd	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,262 (+14%)	1mo	$192,500	$153	60
10897 SW 80th Ct	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,224 (+11%)	7mo	$190,000	$155	58
11140 SW 75th Ter	0.43mi	2/2.0	960 (-13%)	1mo	$135,000	$141	58
11246 SW 73rd Cir	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,163 (+6%)	2mo	$218,000	$187	54
8329 SW 105th Pl	0.55mi	2/2.0	960 (-13%)	2mo	$185,000	$193	52
11248 SW 78th Ct	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,226 (+11%)	7mo	$185,000	$151	51
8344 SW 107th Pl	0.49mi	2/2.0	960 (-13%)	8mo	$143,200	$149	49
8473 SW 106th St	0.65mi	2/2.0	936 (-15%)	10mo	$133,000	$142	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-21,045
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-23,336
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34476

• Rents YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 852
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,641 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $900/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$123
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,433

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8130 SW 108th Street Rd Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1084	$1,975	$1.82	21d	1	0.37mi
7867 SW 115th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,600	$1.09	21d	1	0.76mi
10441 SW 85th Ct Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1090	$1,495	$1.37	21d	1	0.82mi
8669 SW 108th Ln Ocala, FL	2.0	1.0	1152	$1,250	$1.09	21d	1	0.85mi
8287 SW 116th St Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1181	$1,550	$1.31	21d	1	1.05mi
8947 SW 108th Pl Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1096	$1,500	$1.37	21d	1	1.12mi
8942 SW 109th Ln Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$1,450	$1.51	21d	1	1.15mi
8935 SW 102nd Pl Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,500	$1.31	21d	1	1.22mi
8757 SW 97th Lane Rd Unit C Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1490	$1,600	$1.07	14d	1	1.22mi
8655 SW 98th Street Rd Unit G Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1424	$1,500	$1.05	21d	1	1.29mi
8670 SW 97th St Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1341	$1,600	$1.19	21d	1	1.34mi
9075 SW 102nd Pl Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,275	$1.26	21d	1	1.35mi
8671 SW 97th St Unit C Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1341	$1,474	$1.10	14d	1	1.35mi
10912 SW 69th Cir Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1169	$1,600	$1.37	21d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $123 · $1,476/yr
• Likely covers: trashelectricpoolsecurity

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 117 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 116 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 115 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 114 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 111 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 106 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 101 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 100 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 99 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 98 DOM
16. 2026-02-21
    listed $165,000 Active 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    Major updates include a new roof (2026), A/C (2025), and electrical service (2022). This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,102 sq ft plus a 20' x 24' garage, with a comfortable, functional layout for easy living. Enjoy a bright 14' x 17' Florida room addition and a 9' x 16' lanai for outdoor relaxation. Located in Palm Cay, a gated 55+ community in Southwest Ocala, residents enjoy 24-hour security, golf cart-friendly streets, and an active lifestyle. Amenities include a clubhouse, pool, tennis court, and a variety of social activities. The monthly fee covers trash service, security, and community access. Optional RV/boat storage may available for a reasonable fee. Convenient to I-75, the World Equestrian Center, shopping, dining, and medical facilities, with easy access to Gainesville and Orlando.

17. 2026-02-15
    historical
18. 2025-11-21
    status Active
19. 2025-11-21
    historical
20. 2025-11-17
    listed $159,000 Active
21. 2025-11-17
    historical
22. 2025-11-17
    listed $159,000 Active
23. 1995-04-18
    soldstatus $53,000
24. 1988-12-01
    soldstatus $52,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $900 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,370 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$469/yr (+$39/mo · 52.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,696
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$900
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,576
• − Management: −$1,576
• − HOA: −$1,476
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$699
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$168
• After-tax cash flow: $2,143/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Liberty Triangle

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Liberty Triangle, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 26,397
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,997
• Household income: $65,860
• Rent vs Own: 12.3% rent · 87.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 204.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 13% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.22%
• Current HPI: 189.0869
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.57%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+216.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-21 Listed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-15 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-21 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-17 Listed $159,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-17 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-17 Listed $159,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records
• 1988-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $52,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $900 · +31.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.