4038 Phelps Dr · Holiday Lake, IA 52211

$109,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,900 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 218 Days on market

Built 2000 1.02 ac lot $58/sqft · 55% below area ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity. This property is located at Holiday Lake in Brooklyn IA. This property has lots of potential, it has an oversize living with high ceilings, 2 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms and a deck off the kitchen.

Key facts

• Deck off the kitchen
• Oversize living
• High ceilings

Tags

• OVERSIZE LIVING
• HIGH CEILINGS
• DECK OFF THE KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $108 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (3.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $96k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 1.8% in Holiday Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#524 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Brooklyn-Guernsey-Malcom Community School District (rural): math 72% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #101 of 289 in IA (top 35%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Poweshiek County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($757 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (8.6% local appreciation)).
• Poweshiek County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (8.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 218 days — a 12% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $96,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 218 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.22%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,146
• List price: $109,500
• Delta: -55.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4077 Western Dr	0.15mi	2/1.5	2,033 (+7%)	1mo	$244,000	$120	78
2088 Franklin Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,852 (-2%)	24mo	$277,000	$150	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.56% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $55,929
• Equity at exit: $87,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.14×
• Total profit: $157,461
• Equity at exit: $177,677

Cash invested: $30,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 52211

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,053 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$574
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,254/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $917

Max offer price $109,500

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $170	-5% $139	+0% $108	+5% $77	+10% $46
Rent	-10% $25	-5% $66	+0% $108	+5% $149	+10% $191
Rate	-1.0pp $163	-0.5pp $136	base $108	+0.5pp $79	+1.0pp $51

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,375
• Closing costs: $3,285
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $109,500 Active 218 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,500 Active 216 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,500 Active 215 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,500 Active 214 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,500 Active 213 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,500 Active 211 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $109,500 Active 210 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $118,900 Active 207 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $118,900 Active 206 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $118,900 Active 205 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $118,900 Active 204 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $118,900 Active 201 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $118,900 Active 200 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $118,900 Active 199 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $118,900 Active 198 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $118,900 Active 197 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    status Active 210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    Great opportunity. This property is located at Holiday Lake in Brooklyn IA. This property has lots of potential, it has an oversize living with high ceilings, 2 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms and a deck off the kitchen.

18. 2026-05-08
    price $118,900 210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    Great opportunity. This property is located at Holiday Lake in Brooklyn IA. This property has lots of potential, it has an oversize living with high ceilings, 2 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms and a deck off the kitchen.

19. 2026-01-09
    price $145,000 210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    Great opportunity. This property is located at Holiday Lake in Brooklyn IA. This property has lots of potential, it has an oversize living with high ceilings, 2 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms and a deck off the kitchen.

20. 2025-12-09
    price $153,000 210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    Great opportunity. This property is located at Holiday Lake in Brooklyn IA. This property has lots of potential, it has an oversize living with high ceilings, 2 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms and a deck off the kitchen.

21. 2025-11-05
    listed $159,000 Active 210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    Great opportunity. This property is located at Holiday Lake in Brooklyn IA. This property has lots of potential, it has an oversize living with high ceilings, 2 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms and a deck off the kitchen.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,254 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,487 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$233/yr (+$19/mo · 18.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,640
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,134
• − Property taxes: −$1,254
• − Insurance: −$548
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,011
• − Management: −$1,011
• − Depreciation: −$3,185
• Taxable loss: −$503
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$121
• After-tax cash flow: $1,414/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brooklyn-Guernsey-Malcom Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1905490
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 74% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,307
• Composite: 61.79/100
• National rank: #734
• State rank: #101 of 289 in IA

Livability — Holiday Lake

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #524
• US rank: #11725

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday Lake, IA
• Population (ZIP): 2,671

Population outlook (Poweshiek County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,601 people
• By 2030: 18,342 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 17,944 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 18,029 · -3.1%
• By 2075: 19,945 · +7.2%
• By 2100: 22,637 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: English 4% Slovak 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Poweshiek

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 40.8% · R 57.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.7pp toward R · 2008: 11.8pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+13.3 2016: R+6.8 2012: D+9.1 2008: D+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.56%
• Current HPI: 332.4308
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

-25.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Relisted — IAR
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $118,900 IAR
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $145,000 IAR
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $153,000 IAR
• 2025-11-05 Listed $159,000 IAR

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,254 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.