None · Clarence, NY 14001

$39,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured · 38 Days on market

Built 1975 Fair condition $37/sqft · 39% below area Est $64k · 39% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome too 29 Quarry Hill in the demand community of Quarry Hill Estates. This two bedroom 1 bath home has been lovingly taken care of over the years. In 2019 the roof, gutters (with leaf guard system) and windows were all replaced. The front exterior has a welcoming front deck as you enter the front door. A bright and open living room extends to the dining room which includes built in hutches and desk area. The Galley kitchen includes all appliances and has plenty of cabinets. The laundry area is conveniently located off the kitchen. There is a three season room that is great for additional storage or to use during the warmer months. An attached one car garage and shed all complete this p

Key facts

• Front deck
• Built in hutches
• Windows replaced

Tags

• ROOF REPLACED
• GUTTERS WITH LEAF GUARD
• WINDOWS REPLACED
• FRONT DECK
• BUILT IN HUTCHES
• DESK AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease: $705
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee; Community clubhouse; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1-car)
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Single-wide mobile home (Holiday Rambler); Resale property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Existing construction
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Deck; Shed(s) / storage; Located on a cul-de-sac; Pie-shaped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Galley kitchen; Electric cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom; Second bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating; Window cooling units
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Separate/formal dining room; Separate/formal living room; Galley kitchen; Window treatments; Drapes; Bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $39k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $508 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($985 rent vs $39k).
• Recommended offer: $38k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.9% vs local median 1.3% in Clarence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#707 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Clarence Central School District (suburban): math 70% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #94 of 590 in NY (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $270 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $37,830 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.87%
• DSCR: 3.49
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $63,684
• List price: $39,000
• Delta: -38.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
136 Quarry Hill Ests	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,000 (-5%)	1mo	$72,000	$72	77
182 Quarry Hill Ests	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (0%)	10mo	$77,000	$73	72
181 Quarry Hl	0.21mi	2/1.0	980 (-7%)	11mo	$38,900	$40	69
—	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (0%)	22mo	$60,000	$57	69
110 Quarry Hl	0.19mi	2/1.5	980 (-7%)	14mo	$12,500	$13	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.39×
• Total profit: $26,075
• Equity at exit: $5,815

10-year hold

• IRR: 59.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.90×
• Total profit: $64,460
• Equity at exit: $3,372

Cash invested: $10,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14001

• Home prices YoY: -7.1%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $985 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$205
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$49 /mo · $585/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$207
• Net cashflow: $508

Break-even live

Break-even rent $341

Max offer price $39,000

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,750
• Closing costs: $1,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $39,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $39,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $43,900 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $43,900 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $43,900 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $43,900 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    listed $43,900 Active 707-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,816
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,185
• − Property taxes: −$585
• − Insurance: −$195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$945
• − Management: −$945
• − Depreciation: −$1,135
• Taxable income: $5,827
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,398
• After-tax cash flow: $4,702/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-bedroom manufactured home in Quarry Hill Estates has been well-maintained but could benefit from exterior painting and minor repairs to enhance its curb appeal and resale value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Front door — No visible damage
• Minor Deck — No visible damage
• Minor Garage door — No visible damage

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Replace front door — Improves entryway and enhances resale value
• Both Maintain deck — Keeps outdoor living space functional and attractive
• Both Maintain garage door — Keeps garage functional and enhances curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Front door · No visible damage	Minor	$500–3,000
Deck · No visible damage	Minor	$500–3,000
Garage door · No visible damage	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Replace front door — Improves entryway and enhances resale value ↑
• Both Maintain deck — Keeps outdoor living space functional and attractive ↑
• Both Maintain garage door — Keeps garage functional and enhances curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clarence Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607590
• Math proficiency: 70% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,568
• Composite: 64.85/100
• National rank: #514
• State rank: #94 of 590 in NY

Livability — Clarence

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #707
• US rank: #13415

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,122

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.68%
• Current HPI: 322.1897
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-11.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $39,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $43,900 WNYREIS