31306 Harp Ridge Dr · Fulshear, TX 77441

$289,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,717 sqft · SingleFamily · 11 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $169/sqft · 14% below area Est $335k · 14% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOVE IN READY. Welcome to the Knox, a two-story home offering 2,548 sqft. of living space. This floorplan features 4 bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms, and a game room. Step through the foyer into a stunning open-concept layout. The kitchen boasts elegant countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a large island that seamlessly connects to the dining area and family room. A secondary bedroom and full bathroom are conveniently located on the first floor. The primary suite, situated off the family room, offers a spacious walk-in closet, dual vanity and standing shower. Upstairs, you’ll find 2 additional bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a game room. A covered patio extends your living space outdoors, creating the perfect spot for relaxing or hosting gatherings. Enjoy Tamarron’s resort-style pool, splash pad, fitness center, playgrounds, lakes, trails & sports fields. Close to shopping, dining, I-10, Grand Pkwy & Westpark Tollway. Zoned to top-rated LCISD schools.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 11 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-393/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (14.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.5% in Fulshear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Huggins El (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 893 students, 23% FRL); Briscoe J H (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 1,914 students, 38% FRL); Foster H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #141 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,388 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lamar CISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1928 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 39d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($184k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $249,530 (14.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.48%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $335,351
• List price: $289,990
• Delta: -13.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3003 Liams Tower Ln	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,778 (+4%)	0mo	$309,990	$174	83
3011 Ferris Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,778 (+4%)	0mo	$299,990	$169	81
3002 Ferris Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,778 (+4%)	0mo	$304,990	$172	80
3035 Ferris Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,778 (+4%)	1mo	$314,990	$177	79
31427 Harp Ridge Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,544 (-10%)	0mo	$294,990	$191	76
3007 Finns Tunnel Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,544 (-10%)	0mo	$304,990	$198	76
3511 Ashe Landing Dr	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,748 (+2%)	1mo	$309,990	$177	70
3022 Liams Tower Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,535 (-11%)	1mo	$259,990	$169	68
30938 Star Gazer Rd	0.54mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,722 (+0%)	0mo	$374,900	$218	67
2814 Sunrise Field Ln	0.51mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,743 (+2%)	0mo	$374,900	$215	66
2715 Sunrise Field Ln	0.64mi	4/3.0	1,736 (+1%)	1mo	$374,900	$216	64
2867 Orange Leaf Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,545 (-10%)	1mo	$299,000	$194	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-56,353
• Equity at exit: $43,238

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-79,867
• Equity at exit: $25,073

Cash invested: $81,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 136 active · 156 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.1 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $319,495 ($183/sqft)
• Median days on market: 32 d
• This list price: 15% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +6.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77441

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1928
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,495 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$362 /mo · $4,350/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $-33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,537

Max offer price $285,248

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $168	-5% $67	+0% $-33	+5% $-133	+10% $-233
Rent	-10% $-230	-5% $-131	+0% $-33	+5% $66	+10% $164
Rate	-1.0pp $113	-0.5pp $41	base $-33	+0.5pp $-108	+1.0pp $-184

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,498
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31306 Bentley Pines Dr Fulshear, TX	4.0	2.0	1778	$2,100	$1.18	64d	1	0.19mi
31707 Melkridge Rd Fulshear, TX	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,300	$1.10	38d	1	0.62mi
3714 Sloane Peak Ln Fulshear, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1713	$2,456	$1.43	0d	5	0.92mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-30
   days on market $289,990 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-29
   days on market $289,990 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-28
   days on market $289,990 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-27
   days on market $289,990 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-26
   days on market $289,990 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-24
   days on market $289,990 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-22
   days on market $289,990 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-21
   remarks 240-char remark
9. 2026-06-21
   listed $289,990 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,944
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,244
• − Property taxes: −$4,350
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,395
• − Management: −$2,395
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$5,327
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,279
• After-tax cash flow: $885/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,585–$25,755 screening

This home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. It has potential for further improvements to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 63/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Huggins El B TX #321/4,322 Nat'l #6,217/41,679 Middle Dean Leaman J H School B TX #206/1,662 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High Foster H S B TX #141/1,632 Nat'l #2,354/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Fulshear

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #430
• US rank: #8901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• City population: 41,324
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,324
• Household income: $184,390
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 4% Chinese 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.74%
• Current HPI: 275.8798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.63%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.7% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $364,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $374,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $379,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $384,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $368,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $371,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $379,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $372,390 HARMLS
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $379,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $389,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $394,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $392,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-17 Listed $432,990 HARMLS