78 Stern St · Freeport, FL 32439

$257,400

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,470 sqft · Townhouse · 8 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition Est $237k · 9% over $107/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• ARV discount +3.6/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This end unit townhome features a welcoming space that has three bedrooms, two and a half bathrooms, and a convenient single car garage. As you enter this townhome you will find a hall leading to an open-concept kitchen, living, and dining area, designed for entertaining and everyday living. Multiple windows illuminate the living area providing natural light. The kitchen serves as the culinary center with its spacious center island and cabinetry for storage as well as a pantry. The kitchen finishes include quartz countertops, white cabinetry, chrome plumbing fixtures, and an appliance package including a smooth top stove, microwave and dishwasher. The first floor is the heart of the home, w

Key facts

• Culinary center
• Open-concept kitchen
• Private bath

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS CENTER ISLAND
• NATURAL LIGHT
• CULINARY CENTER
• PRIVATE BATH
• DUAL SINK VANITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned for residential multi-family; Building area based on building plan
• HOA & community: Homeowners association (fees cover grounds maintenance and management); Fees include accounting, ground keeping, management, and master association services; Community features include a pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1 car)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Townhome style; 2 stories; Entry level rooms on first floor
• Construction: Vinyl siding and trim; Shingle roof; Built in 2025
• Exterior features: Open patio; Community pool; Interior lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary bedroom carpeted; primary bath with shower only); Bedroom on second floor (approx. 16.0 x 11.2); Bedroom on second floor (approx. 13.7 x 9.69); Bedroom on second floor (approx. 13.7 x 9.5)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 3 bathrooms total (2 full, 1 half)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Electric heat control
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Newly painted; Washer/dryer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer provided (washer/dryer hookup); Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $257k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-130 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (7.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.0% in Freeport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#520 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Walton (rural): math 62% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #10 of 73 in FL (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Freeport Elementary School (math 50% / reading 57%, grade C, #949 of 2,144 statewide, top 45%, 1,123 students, 55% FRL); Freeport Senior High School (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #138 of 667 statewide, top 21%, 557 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 1012 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,883 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (1,322 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walton County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,240 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.17%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $236,670
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13 S Main Deck Dr	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	0mo	$240,777	$164	95
25 S Main Deck Dr	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,459 (-1%)	0mo	$232,000	$159	94
41 S Main Deck Dr	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	3mo	$236,900	$161	94
18 Rudder Ln	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,459 (-1%)	5mo	$243,250	$167	93
22 Rudder Ln	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	6mo	$279,900	$190	93
51 S Main Deck Dr	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,459 (-1%)	3mo	$229,900	$158	92
45 S Main Deck Dr	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,459 (-1%)	3mo	$222,050	$152	92
57 S Main Deck Dr	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,459 (-1%)	3mo	$233,750	$160	92
14 Rudder Ln	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,459 (-1%)	6mo	$234,900	$161	92
61 S Main Deck Dr	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	3mo	$239,900	$163	92

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-53,421
• Equity at exit: $38,379

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-70,781
• Equity at exit: $22,255

Cash invested: $72,072 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32439

• Home prices YoY: -4.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 1012
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,222 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,350
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$322 /mo · $3,861/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$107
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $-130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,387

Max offer price $238,569

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,350
• Closing costs: $7,722
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
51 S Main Deck Dr Freeport, FL	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,095	$1.40	21d	1	0.08mi
47 S Main Deck Dr Unit 1 Freeport, FL	3.0	2.5	1459	$2,000	$1.37	21d	1	0.08mi
41 S Main Deck Dr Unit 1 Freeport, FL	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,195	$1.46	21d	1	0.08mi
103 Bradford Ct Freeport, FL	3.0	2.0	1713	$2,095	$1.22	13d	1	0.31mi
160 Bradford Ct Freeport, FL	3.0	2.0	1223	$2,495	$2.04	21d	1	0.36mi
170 Bradford Ct Freeport, FL	3.0	2.0	1253	$2,300	$1.84	21d	1	0.36mi
2 Polk St Freeport, FL	3.0	2.0	1155	$1,550	$1.34	21d	1	0.67mi
266 Emr AVE Freeport, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	909	$985	$1.08	13d	5	0.72mi
3495 Sanctuary WAY Melbourne, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$2,412	$2.41	13d	38	0.77mi
15 Oakfield Dr Freeport, FL	3.0	2.0	1531	$2,350	$1.53	13d	1	1.01mi
70 Jakes Way Freeport, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,100	$1.40	21d	1	1.11mi
255 N Jackson St Freeport, FL	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,100	$1.44	21d	1	1.15mi
156 Date Palm Ln Freeport, FL	3.0	2.5	1432	$2,300	$1.61	21d	1	1.20mi
151 Date Palm Ln Freeport, FL	3.0	2.5	1484	$1,775	$1.20	13d	1	1.21mi
532 Marquis Way Freeport, FL	3.0	2.0	1807	$2,950	$1.63	21d	1	1.22mi
15284 U.S. 331 Business Freeport, FL	2.0	3.0	1106	$1,400	$1.27	21d	1	1.23mi
259 N Sand Palm Rd Freeport, FL	3.0	2.5	1336	$1,600	$1.20	21d	1	1.29mi
246 N Sand Palm Rd Freeport, FL	3.0	2.5	1471	$1,650	$1.12	21d	1	1.31mi
147 N Sand Palm Rd Freeport, FL	3.0	2.5	1471	$1,595	$1.08	21d	1	1.34mi
201 Marsh Lndg S Freeport, FL	3.0	2.0	1757	$2,450	$1.39	21d	1	1.38mi
76 N Sand Palm Rd Freeport, FL	2.0	3.0	1128	$1,450	$1.29	21d	1	1.42mi
130 Speckled Trout Ln N Freeport, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,350	$1.57	21d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $107 · $1,284/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $257,400 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $257,400 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $257,400 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $257,400 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $257,400 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $257,400 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,669
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,418
• − Property taxes: −$3,861
• − Insurance: −$1,287
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,134
• − Management: −$2,134
• − HOA: −$1,284
• − Depreciation: −$7,488
• Taxable loss: −$5,937
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,425
• After-tax cash flow: $-137/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This end unit townhome is in good condition with a fresh paint job and well-maintained landscaping. Minor updates like a backsplash and vanity can further enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — A backsplash can add visual interest and functionality to the kitchen
• Resale Bathroom vanity — A modern vanity can improve the bathroom's appearance and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — A backsplash can add visual interest and functionality to the kitchen ↑
• Resale Bathroom vanity — A modern vanity can improve the bathroom's appearance and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walton
• NCES district ID: 1201980
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,794
• Composite: 52.03/100
• National rank: #1634
• State rank: #10 of 73 in FL

Livability — Freeport

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #520
• US rank: #9579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Freeport, FL
• County: Walton County · 70,839 people
• City population: 15,328
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,328
• Household income: $83,227
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Walton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,014 people
• By 2030: 88,120 · +10.1%
• By 2040: 103,537 · +29.4%
• By 2050: 117,034 · +46.3%
• By 2075: 143,901 · +79.8%
• By 2100: 155,138 · +93.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Native American 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Walton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.8) · D 20.7% · R 78.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.0pp toward R · 2008: -45.8pp · 2024: -57.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.8 2020: R+51.7 2016: R+56.1 2012: R+52.0 2008: R+45.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.18%
• Current HPI: 350.4692
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.40%
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $257,400 ECAR