107 Bernal Ave · Hickman, KY 42050

$79,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,215 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1950 0.72 ac lot Est $122k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Home needs some repairs inside and cosmetics, 2 bedrooms 1 bath , living room, eat in kitchen, large utility room. Metal roof, fenced yard, 3 a/c units and 3 heaters.

Key facts

• 0.72 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1950

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces; Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Single story
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Shed(s) and storage on property; Level lot; Paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 200 x 157

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 5
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling fans; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Blinds on windows; Fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $251 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#308 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Fulton County (rural): math 20% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #138 of 165 in KY (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($552 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Fulton County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $80k implies a 221% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.45%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $121,500
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
205 Van Lee Blvd	0.19mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,140 (-6%)	0mo	$61,000	$54	76
1704 Cottonwood Dr	0.35mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,350 (+11%)	15mo	$135,000	$100	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.49% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $27,705
• Equity at exit: $38,155

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.30×
• Total profit: $73,737
• Equity at exit: $60,596

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42050

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,016 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $251

Break-even live

Break-even rent $699

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,900 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,900 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $79,900 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-04-14
    listed $79,900 Active
17. 2005-04-08
    soldstatus $24,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,196
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$976
• − Management: −$976
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $1,847
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$443
• After-tax cash flow: $2,566/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fulton County
• NCES district ID: 2102100
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $34,179
• Composite: 21.74/100
• National rank: #8263
• State rank: #138 of 165 in KY

Livability — Hickman

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #308
• US rank: #14678

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hickman, KY
• Population (ZIP): 3,129

Population outlook (Fulton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,425 people
• By 2030: 5,042 · -7.1%
• By 2040: 4,456 · -17.9%
• By 2050: 4,120 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 4,003 · -26.2%
• By 2100: 4,258 · -21.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 23%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fulton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.6% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.5pp toward R · 2008: -10.3pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+33.5 2016: R+32.5 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+10.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.49%
• Current HPI: 124.8044
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+220.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $79,900 RRAR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2005-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $24,900 Public Records