612 S 31st St · Buena Vista, MI 48601

$75,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 888 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 142 Days on market

Built 1959 0.43 ac lot Est $59k · 30% over ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained 2-bedroom with the possibility of a 3rd bedroom. Newer carpet, updated kitchen and bath. Situated on 3 fenced-in city lots. Plenty of spae for expansion and/or gardening.

Key facts

• Updated bath
• Space for gardening
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATH
• FENCED-IN CITY LOTS
• SPACE FOR EXPANSION
• SPACE FOR GARDENING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $76k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $459 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $76k).
• Recommended offer: $67k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#615 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Saginaw School District (urban): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #444 of 540 in MI (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 199 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $525 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,792 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.90%
• DSCR: 2.15
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $58,608
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
523 S 29th St	0.18mi	3/1.0	864 (-3%)	10mo	$75,000	$87	79
945 S 27th St	0.49mi	3/1.0	884 (-0%)	2mo	$13,000	$15	75
812 25th St	0.42mi	3/1.0	864 (-3%)	12mo	$59,900	$69	66
558 S 24th St	0.41mi	3/1.0	912 (+3%)	12mo	$89,000	$98	66
415 S 27th St	0.36mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-3%)	11mo	$33,000	$38	64
329 S 28th St	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-3%)	12mo	$83,900	$97	62
420 S 31st St	0.24mi	3/1.0	988 (+11%)	11mo	$42,000	$43	61
514 S 22nd St	0.55mi	3/1.0	912 (+3%)	14mo	$50,000	$55	58
3015 Perkins St	0.42mi	3/1.0	960 (+8%)	12mo	$63,500	$66	57
455 S 24th St	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (-5%)	9mo	$30,000	$36	56
2420 Bancroft St	0.74mi	2/1.0 (-1)	845 (-5%)	4mo	$60,000	$71	49
645 S 23rd	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	780 (-12%)	6mo	$37,000	$47	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $16,892
• Equity at exit: $11,317

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.46×
• Total profit: $52,234
• Equity at exit: $6,562

Cash invested: $21,252 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48601

• Home prices YoY: -32.1%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,161 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$398
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $345/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $459

Break-even live

Break-even rent $580

Max offer price $75,900

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,975
• Closing costs: $2,277
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-03-26
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (186 chars)

   Well maintained 2-bedroom with the possibility of a 3rd bedroom. Newer carpet, updated kitchen and bath. Situated on 3 fenced-in city lots. Plenty of spae for expansion and/or gardening.

2. 2026-03-26
   status Pending 186-char remark

   Show marketing remark (186 chars)

   Well maintained 2-bedroom with the possibility of a 3rd bedroom. Newer carpet, updated kitchen and bath. Situated on 3 fenced-in city lots. Plenty of spae for expansion and/or gardening.

3. 2026-02-08
   price $75,900 186-char remark

   Show marketing remark (186 chars)

   Well maintained 2-bedroom with the possibility of a 3rd bedroom. Newer carpet, updated kitchen and bath. Situated on 3 fenced-in city lots. Plenty of spae for expansion and/or gardening.

4. 2026-02-07
   price $75,900
5. 2025-12-01
   price $79,900 186-char remark

   Show marketing remark (186 chars)

   Well maintained 2-bedroom with the possibility of a 3rd bedroom. Newer carpet, updated kitchen and bath. Situated on 3 fenced-in city lots. Plenty of spae for expansion and/or gardening.

6. 2025-12-01
   price $79,900

   Show marketing remark (186 chars)

   Well maintained 2-bedroom with the possibility of a 3rd bedroom. Newer carpet, updated kitchen and bath. Situated on 3 fenced-in city lots. Plenty of spae for expansion and/or gardening.

7. 2025-11-05
   listed $89,900 Active
8. 2025-11-04
   listed $89,900 Active 186-char remark

   Show marketing remark (186 chars)

   Well maintained 2-bedroom with the possibility of a 3rd bedroom. Newer carpet, updated kitchen and bath. Situated on 3 fenced-in city lots. Plenty of spae for expansion and/or gardening.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $345 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $757 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: +$412/yr (+$34/mo · 119.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,931
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,252
• − Property taxes: −$345
• − Insurance: −$380
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,114
• − Management: −$1,114
• − Depreciation: −$2,208
• Taxable income: $4,518
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,084
• After-tax cash flow: $4,420/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saginaw School District
• NCES district ID: 2630390
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $28,940
• Composite: 19.6/100
• National rank: #8755
• State rank: #444 of 540 in MI

Livability — Buena Vista

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #615
• US rank: #20603

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buena Vista, MI
• City population: 32,069
• Population (ZIP): 32,069

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.46%
• Current HPI: 197.3359
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-15.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-03-26 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-08 Price Changed $75,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $75,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $79,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $79,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-11-05 Listed $89,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-11-04 Listed $89,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $345 · -65.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.