22802 Sherioaks Ln · The Woodlands, TX 77389

$274,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,380 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 2005 4,464 sqft lot $116/sqft · 6% above area Est $259k · 6% over $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• ARV discount +4.7/15.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Incredible value in Spring Klein. Move-in ready, 2 story home located FoxHollow community. New roof replaced in 2025, updated kitchen offers granite counters, new dishwasher, gas stove. 10 miles from The Woodlands, with easy access to 99 grand parkway and 1-45 North, and conveniently located close to Exxon Mobil campus, great location and opportunity. Built in 2005, 2,380 sq.ft. living space, 4 bedrooms all upstairs, 2.5 bathrooms, oversized primary bedroom, large game rooms upstairs, open living and dining areas, generous backyard. Perfect for families looking for space, functionality, and value in the highly desirable spring/klein area. Clean, well-maintained and ready for its next owner. Fantastic opportunity to own near The Woodlands without the price tag. Low Tax Rate.

Key facts

• Gas stove
• Updated kitchen
• Granite counters

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• GAS STOVE
• GENEROUS BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-768/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (1.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 383 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $258,405 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.00%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $259,062
• List price: $274,900
• Delta: 6.11%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5143 Roth Forest Ln	0.05mi	4/2.5	2,344 (-2%)	5mo	$245,000	$105	91
22610 Cutter Mill Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,404 (+1%)	0mo	$349,500	$145	77
22647 Cutter Mill Dr	0.22mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,236 (-6%)	1mo	$375,000	$168	74
22503 Birch Ridge Meadow Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,320 (-2%)	1mo	$368,000	$159	70
4914 Woodbury Mill Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0	2,196 (-8%)	8mo	$323,000	$147	68
22610 Birch Ridge Meadow Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0	2,202 (-8%)	6mo	$319,999	$145	67
22534 Cutter Mill Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,258 (-5%)	3mo	$415,000	$184	66
22906 Squirrel Tree St	0.25mi	4/2.0	2,071 (-13%)	2mo	$247,000	$119	63
22914 Squirrel Tree St	0.27mi	4/2.0	2,122 (-11%)	7mo	$279,995	$132	62
22618 Cutter Mill Dr	0.28mi	4/2.5	2,716 (+14%)	7mo	$380,000	$140	58
22202 Weller Oaks Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,360 (-1%)	1mo	$365,000	$155	57
23323 N Preserve Glen Cir	0.58mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,589 (+9%)	3mo	$445,000	$172	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-51,248
• Equity at exit: $40,988

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-60,414
• Equity at exit: $23,768

Cash invested: $76,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77389

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 383
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,700 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$599 /mo · $7,185/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $-64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,781

Max offer price $263,593

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,725
• Closing costs: $8,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4814 Preserve Creek Ct Unit 1 Spring, TX	4.0	4.0	3250	$3,395	$1.04	20d	1	0.70mi
4702 Preserve Park Dr Unit SF10K2 Spring, TX	4.0	3.0	2647	$2,600	$0.98	43d	1	0.74mi
5730 Blue Harvest DR The Woodlands, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1660	$3,391	$2.04	5d	98	0.76mi
5522 Mesquite Oaks Trl Spring, TX	4.0	2.0	2145	$2,500	$1.17	12d	1	1.19mi
21831 Catoosa Dr Spring, TX	4.0	2.5	2287	$2,100	$0.92	43d	1	1.31mi
22197 Northcrest Dr Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1592	$2,260	$1.42	24d	1	1.36mi
22418 Bridgestone Ridge Dr Spring, TX	4.0	3.5	2932	$2,695	$0.92	24d	1	1.40mi
4209 Spring Stuebner Rd Unit 4242 Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1584	$2,210	$1.40	11d	1	1.41mi
4209 Spring Stuebner Rd Unit 3228 Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1584	$2,178	$1.38	3d	1	1.41mi
5907 Wrest Point Ct Spring, TX	4.0	2.5	2587	$5,500	$2.13	43d	1	1.43mi
4614 Bridgestone Path Dr Spring, TX	4.0	2.5	2450	$2,325	$0.95	17d	1	1.46mi
21801 Northcrest Dr Unit 21834 Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1607	$2,305	$1.43	43d	1	1.46mi
21801 Northcrest Dr Unit 3174 Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1607	$2,304	$1.43	11d	1	1.46mi
21801 Northcrest Dr Unit 3228 Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1607	$2,272	$1.41	3d	1	1.46mi
6110 Wilcox Point Dr Spring, TX	3.0	2.5	2429	$2,245	$0.92	43d	1	1.48mi
21801 Northcrest Dr Unit 3047 Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1607	$2,304	$1.43	3d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $274,900 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $274,900 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $274,900 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $274,900 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $274,900 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $274,900 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $274,900 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $274,900 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $274,900 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $274,900 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $274,900 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $274,900 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $274,900 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-04-03
    listed $274,900 Active 787-char remark

    Show marketing remark (787 chars)

    Incredible value in Spring Klein. Move-in ready, 2 story home located FoxHollow community. New roof replaced in 2025, updated kitchen offers granite counters, new dishwasher, gas stove. 10 miles from The Woodlands, with easy access to 99 grand parkway and 1-45 North, and conveniently located close to Exxon Mobil campus, great location and opportunity. Built in 2005, 2,380 sq.ft. living space, 4 bedrooms all upstairs, 2.5 bathrooms, oversized primary bedroom, large game rooms upstairs, open living and dining areas, generous backyard. Perfect for families looking for space, functionality, and value in the highly desirable spring/klein area. Clean, well-maintained and ready for its next owner. Fantastic opportunity to own near The Woodlands without the price tag. Low Tax Rate.

15. 2026-01-27
    historical
16. 2025-08-11
    price $289,900
17. 2025-06-09
    listed $299,900 Active
18. 2024-10-28
    historical $1,800
19. 2024-10-19
    historical $1,800
20. 2024-09-13
    listed $1,800
21. 2024-09-10
    listed $1,800
22. 2023-09-17
    historical $1,795
23. 2023-09-15
    listed $1,795
24. 2023-09-14
    historical $1,795
25. 2023-08-22
    historical $1,795
26. 2023-08-16
    listed $1,795
27. 2023-08-15
    listed $1,795
28. 2019-03-04
    soldstatus
29. 2007-02-12
    historical
30. 2006-10-03
    listed $139,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,185 · $599/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,185 · $599/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,399
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,399
• − Property taxes: −$7,185
• − Insurance: −$1,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,592
• − Management: −$2,592
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$7,997
• Taxable loss: −$5,245
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,259
• After-tax cash flow: $491/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klein ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825740
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,288
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3615
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 45,701
• Household income: $140,683
• Rent vs Own: 24.8% rent · 75.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1191.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -159.54%
• Current HPI: 236.5688
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.94%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+96.5% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Listed $274,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-11 Price Changed $289,900 HARMLS
• 2025-06-09 Listed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2024-10-28 Rental Removed $1,800 RENT.
• 2024-10-19 Rental Removed $1,800 HARMLS
• 2024-09-13 Listed for Rent $1,800 RENT.
• 2024-09-10 Listed for Rent $1,800 HARMLS
• 2023-09-17 Rental Removed $1,795 RENTFEEDER
• 2023-09-15 Listed for Rent $1,795 RENTFEEDER
• 2023-09-14 Rental Removed $1,795 RENT.
• 2023-08-22 Rental Removed $1,795 RENTFEEDER
• 2023-08-16 Listed for Rent $1,795 RENTFEEDER
• 2023-08-15 Listed for Rent $1,795 RENT.
• 2019-03-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-02-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-10-03 Listed $139,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,185 · +12.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.