Pima Plan · Houston, TX 77532

$191,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,360 sqft · SingleFamily · 265 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The first floor of this two-story home is host to a spacious open floorplan that seamlessly connects an inviting family room, elegant dining room and chef-inspired kitchen. Upstairs, there are three bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite, which features a restful bedroom, en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Green space
• Short commutes
• Prime location

Tags

• GREEN SPACE
• WALKING TRAILS
• PRIME LOCATION
• PROXIMITY TO SHOPPING CENTERS
• SHORT COMMUTES

🏗️ New construction. The $191,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $243,490.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $192k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $44 ($527/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $192k).
• Recommended offer: $169k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1188 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 265 days — a 12% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $168,951 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 265 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.77%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,490
• List price: $191,990
• Delta: -17.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20166 Green Mallard St	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,360 (0%)	1mo	$201,990	$149	82
1738 West Stroker Rd	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+7%)	1mo	$224,990	$155	82
20159 Green Mallard St	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,360 (0%)	1mo	$201,990	$149	82
20127 Green Mallard St	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,360 (0%)	0mo	$181,990	$134	81
1714 Serenity Moon Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,539 (+13%)	1mo	$244,990	$159	74
20022 White Dove Trl	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+4%)	1mo	$250,990	$178	67
20031 White Dove Trl	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+4%)	1mo	$254,990	$180	66
20050 White Dove Trl	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,273 (-6%)	1mo	$239,990	$189	65
20235 New Moon Trl	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-5%)	1mo	$439,999	$340	64
20011 White Dove Trl	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+4%)	1mo	$252,990	$180	63
20131 Green Mallard St	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,189 (-13%)	1mo	$138,991	$117	60
20158 Green Mallard St	0.36mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,535 (+13%)	1mo	$211,990	$138	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-39,921
• Equity at exit: $36,305

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-44,135
• Equity at exit: $21,053

Cash invested: $68,177 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1188
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,186 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,277
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$304 /mo · $3,652/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,130

Max offer price $243,490

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $212	-5% $128	+0% $44	+5% $-40	+10% $-124
Rent	-10% $-129	-5% $-42	+0% $44	+5% $130	+10% $217
Rate	-1.0pp $167	-0.5pp $106	base $44	+0.5pp $-19	+1.0pp $-83

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,872
• Closing costs: $7,305
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20119 Iron Winds St Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,875	$1.32	13d	1	0.20mi
20034 White Dove Dr Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1273	$1,850	$1.45	13d	1	0.49mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $191,990 Active 265 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,990 Active 262 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,990 Active 261 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,990 Active 260 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,990 Active 259 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,990 Active 257 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,990 Active 253 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,990 Active 252 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,990 Active 251 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,990 Active 248 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,990 Active 246 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,990 Active 245 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,990 Active 244 DOM
14. 2025-09-29
    listed $199,990 Active 323-char remark

    Show marketing remark (323 chars)

    The first floor of this two-story home is host to a spacious open floorplan that seamlessly connects an inviting family room, elegant dining room and chef-inspired kitchen. Upstairs, there are three bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite, which features a restful bedroom, en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,227
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,639
• − Property taxes: −$3,652
• − Insurance: −$1,217
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,098
• − Management: −$2,098
• − Depreciation: −$7,083
• Taxable loss: −$3,562
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$855
• After-tax cash flow: $1,381/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It offers a spacious open floorplan and three bedrooms, including a luxurious owner's suite. The home is ready for move-in and can be further enhanced with minor updates to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can improve the kitchen's functionality and appeal to potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Upgrading the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern bathrooms can enhance the overall appeal and functionality of the home.
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can improve the kitchen's functionality and appeal to potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern bathrooms can enhance the overall appeal and functionality of the home. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-09-29 Listed $199,990 Zillow