1213 Craigmont Dr · Lynchburg, VA 24501

$229,900

6 bd · 5.5 ba · 3,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 85 Days on market

Built 2024 10,018 sqft lot $72/sqft · 39% below area Est $376k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A wonderful opportunity to provide the completion and design of this large 3 story home. Six bedrooms and 4 1/2 baths are possible with plenty of open space on the first floor. Great front and rear covered porches for relaxing. Large deck off the primary bedroom.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 2024

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/5.5-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $25 ($296/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.0% in Lynchburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in VA, #58 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Lynchburg City Public School District (urban): math 36% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #104 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 216 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 472 units permitted in Lynchburg city in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,764/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($42k/yr) (locally 1717% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lynchburg County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $9k; list at $230k implies a 2454% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,399 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.46%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $375,984
• List price: $229,900
• Delta: -38.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-39,016
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-45,140
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24501

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,764 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $810/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,733

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $229,900 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,900 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,900 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,900 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,900 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $229,900 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,900 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,900 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,900 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $229,900 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,900 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,900 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,900 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,900 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,900 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $229,900 Active 65 DOM
17. 2026-05-05
    price $216,900 263-char remark

    Show marketing remark (263 chars)

    A wonderful opportunity to provide the completion and design of this large 3 story home. Six bedrooms and 4 1/2 baths are possible with plenty of open space on the first floor. Great front and rear covered porches for relaxing. Large deck off the primary bedroom.

18. 2026-04-27
    price $226,900 263-char remark

    Show marketing remark (263 chars)

    A wonderful opportunity to provide the completion and design of this large 3 story home. Six bedrooms and 4 1/2 baths are possible with plenty of open space on the first floor. Great front and rear covered porches for relaxing. Large deck off the primary bedroom.

19. 2026-04-09
    price $229,600 263-char remark

    Show marketing remark (263 chars)

    A wonderful opportunity to provide the completion and design of this large 3 story home. Six bedrooms and 4 1/2 baths are possible with plenty of open space on the first floor. Great front and rear covered porches for relaxing. Large deck off the primary bedroom.

20. 2026-03-25
    listed $229,900 Active 263-char remark

    Show marketing remark (263 chars)

    A wonderful opportunity to provide the completion and design of this large 3 story home. Six bedrooms and 4 1/2 baths are possible with plenty of open space on the first floor. Great front and rear covered porches for relaxing. Large deck off the primary bedroom.

21. 2026-03-25
    listed $229,900 Active 263-char remark

    Show marketing remark (263 chars)

    A wonderful opportunity to provide the completion and design of this large 3 story home. Six bedrooms and 4 1/2 baths are possible with plenty of open space on the first floor. Great front and rear covered porches for relaxing. Large deck off the primary bedroom.

22. 2023-09-05
    soldstatus $9,000 Closed
23. 2023-08-15
    soldstatus $9,000
24. 2023-07-25
    status Pending
25. 2023-06-29
    listed $9,900 Active
26. 2019-11-20
    listed $9,900
27. 2018-12-31
    historical
28. 2017-12-04
    listed $13,900
29. 2017-09-30
    historical
30. 2016-09-21
    listed $13,900
31. 2016-09-21
    listed $13,900
32. 2013-06-06
    historical
33. 2012-12-21
    listed $9,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $810 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,885 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,075/yr (+$90/mo · 132.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,168
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$810
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,693
• − Management: −$1,693
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$3,744
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$899
• After-tax cash flow: $1,195/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lynchburg City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102340
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,097
• Composite: 40.4/100
• National rank: #3730
• State rank: #104 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lynchburg

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #58

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynchburg, VA
• County: Lynchburg City · 97,036 people
• City population: 97,036
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 25,006
• Household income: $42,222
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1717.0

Population outlook (Lynchburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,977 people
• By 2030: 93,626 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 106,145 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 120,783 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 162,249 · +84.4%
• By 2100: 191,358 · +117.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 34% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynchburg

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -4.0pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: D+2.6 2016: R+9.0 2012: R+10.6 2008: R+4.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.06%
• Current HPI: 223.6839
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.15%
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+2310.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $216,900 LMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $226,900 LMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $229,600 LMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $229,900 MLSRV
• 2026-03-25 Listed $229,900 LMLS
• 2023-09-05 Sold (MLS) $9,000 LMLS
• 2023-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records
• 2023-07-25 Pending — LMLS
• 2023-06-29 Listed $9,900 LMLS
• 2019-11-20 Listed $9,900 LMLS
• 2018-12-31 Listing Removed — MLSRV
• 2017-12-04 Listed $13,900 MLSRV
• 2017-09-30 Listing Removed — MLSRV
• 2016-09-21 Listed $13,900 MLSRV
• 2016-09-21 Listed $13,900 LMLS
• 2013-06-06 Listing Removed — MLSRV
• 2012-12-21 Listed $9,000 MLSRV

Property tax history

+21.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $810 · +468.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.