14415 Red Mulberry Ln · Houston, TX 77044

$270,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,404 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 2002 6,791 sqft lot $112/sqft · 16% below area Est $320k · 16% under $82/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This 2,404 sq ft, 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a solid footprint in an established Houston community. The property is being sold as-is and presents an excellent opportunity for buyers looking to customize and add value. With some TLC and personal touches, this property has strong potential. Sold as-is at a price that reflects the opportunity.

Key facts

• 6,791 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2002

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by Chaparral Management; Annual association fee; Community amenities: clubhouse, picnic area, playground

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (entry level: first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2002; Brick, cement siding, and stone exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Fully fenced backyard; Back yard fencing; Pond on lot; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Microwave; Oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14 x 17); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 11 x 13); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 11 x 11); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 11 x 11)
• Flooring: Carpet; Concrete; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Crown molding; Double vanity; Pantry; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Ceiling fans; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-137 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (9.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (2.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Centennial El (math 43% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 858 students, 38% FRL); Summer Creek H S (math 33% / reading 48%, grade F, #798 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 3,600 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 337 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,806 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.17%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $320,175
• List price: $270,000
• Delta: -15.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13203 Yaupon Holly Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	2,360 (-2%)	1mo	$299,900	$127	81
14418 Gadwall Ct	0.21mi	3/2.0	2,308 (-4%)	8mo	$300,000	$130	75
14518 Red Tailed Hawk Ln	0.34mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,443 (+2%)	1mo	$379,999	$156	72
14510 Southern Magnolia Cir	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,247 (-6%)	6mo	$345,000	$154	70
13314 White Ibis Dr	0.22mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,627 (+9%)	1mo	$343,953	$131	65
13719 Brighton Park Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,537 (+6%)	1mo	$335,000	$132	64
12710 Lady Jane	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,349 (-2%)	5mo	$339,900	$145	61
13714 Brighton Park Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,258 (-6%)	6mo	$250,000	$111	59
14614 Oxwick Cir	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,128 (-12%)	4mo	$304,999	$143	58
12902 Chalfield Cir	0.41mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,674 (+11%)	0mo	$365,000	$136	53
14510 Kings Head Dr	0.54mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,477 (+3%)	11mo	$375,000	$151	52
14111 Blisswood Dr	0.74mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,737 (+14%)	1mo	$395,000	$144	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.59% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-41,245
• Equity at exit: $57,663

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-52,403
• Equity at exit: $54,360

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77044

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,625 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$601 /mo · $7,208/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$82
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$551
• Net cashflow: $-137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,799

Max offer price $245,806

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14407 Jessica Falls Cir Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2554	$2,600	$1.02	44d	1	0.18mi
13606 Caney Springs Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2502	$2,415	$0.97	21d	1	0.59mi
14419 Stonebury Trail Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2675	$2,571	$0.96	1d	1	0.75mi
15410 Rosehill Summit Ln Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2631	$5,000	$1.90	1d	1	0.97mi
12731 Arcola Valley Ct Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2663	$2,716	$1.02	5d	1	1.02mi
14700 Chapman Woods Xing Unit 1 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1758	$1,340	$0.76	1d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $82 · $984/yr

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $270,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $270,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $270,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $270,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $270,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $270,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $270,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $270,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $270,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $280,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $280,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $280,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $280,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $280,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $280,000 Active 349-char remark
16. 2026-04-07
    historical
17. 2026-03-19
    price $296,200
18. 2026-03-19
    price $369,200
19. 2026-03-12
    price $269,200
20. 2026-03-12
    price $262,200
21. 2026-02-05
    listed $324,999 Active
22. 2026-01-16
    historical
23. 2026-01-10
    listed $309,900 Active
24. 2026-01-01
    historical
25. 2025-10-17
    price $329,900
26. 2025-09-04
    listed $335,000 Active
27. 2022-10-11
    soldstatus Sold
28. 2022-10-10
    soldstatus
29. 2022-09-26
    status Pending
30. 2022-08-10
    listed $314,000 Active
31. 2022-07-21
    soldstatus
32. 2005-04-14
    soldstatus
33. 2005-02-21
    soldstatus
34. 2005-01-31
    historical
35. 2004-07-22
    listed $164,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,208 · $601/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,208 · $601/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,505
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$7,208
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,520
• − Management: −$2,520
• − HOA: −$984
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$6,056
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,453
• After-tax cash flow: $-190/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,347
• Household income: $95,000
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1332.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% Black 32% White 19% Two or more races 18% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.59%
• Current HPI: 215.5736
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+64.2% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $270,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $280,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $296,200 HARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $369,200 HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $269,200 HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $262,200 HARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $324,999 HARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-10 Listed $309,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $329,900 HARMLS
• 2025-09-04 Listed $335,000 HARMLS
• 2022-10-11 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-10-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-09-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-08-10 Listed $314,000 HARMLS
• 2022-07-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-04-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-02-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-01-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2004-07-22 Listed $164,400 HARMLS

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,208 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.