2263 Buckner Rd · Mineral, VA 23024

$177,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 3,641 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1960 0.84 ac lot $49/sqft · 60% below area Est $327k · 46% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor Special Here is an opportunity to be near Lake Anna, VA – Endless Potential! Unlock the possibilities with this rare fixer-upper opportunity in the highly desirable Lake Anna area. This spacious 3BR/2.5BA two-level home offers approximately 2,600 sq ft on a generous . 84-acre lot, providing the perfect canvas for a profitable renovation or resale project. The property requires updates and is being sold strictly as-is, making it ideal for experienced investors, fix-and-flip buyers, or contractors looking for their next project. With strong ARV potential and growing demand near Lake Anna, this property presents an excellent opportunity to add value and maximize returns. Fully available and ready for a quick closing. Cash buyers preferred; 203K financing considered. Bring your vision and transform this diamond in the rough into something spectacular!

Key facts

• 0.84 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1960

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $178k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $836 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $178k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 2.2% in Mineral — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#246 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Louisa County Public School District (rural): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #19 of 131 in VA (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 167 active listings in the ZIP; 408 units permitted in Louisa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Louisa County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $49k; list at $178k implies a 262% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,175 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.19%
• DSCR: 1.90
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $326,974
• List price: $177,500
• Delta: -45.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1761 Buckner	0.48mi	4/2.5 (+1)	3,900 (+7%)	4mo	$485,000	$124	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.99% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $32,071
• Equity at exit: $34,552

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.08×
• Total profit: $103,168
• Equity at exit: $29,603

Cash invested: $49,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23024

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,471 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$931
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,329/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $836

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,412

Max offer price $177,500

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,375
• Closing costs: $5,325
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $177,500 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $177,500 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $177,500 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $177,500 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $177,500 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $177,500 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $177,500 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $177,500 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-05-07
   status Active 875-char remark

   Show marketing remark (875 chars)

   Investor Special Here is an opportunity to be near Lake Anna, VA – Endless Potential! Unlock the possibilities with this rare fixer-upper opportunity in the highly desirable Lake Anna area. This spacious 3BR/2.5BA two-level home offers approximately 2,600 sq ft on a generous . 84-acre lot, providing the perfect canvas for a profitable renovation or resale project. The property requires updates and is being sold strictly as-is, making it ideal for experienced investors, fix-and-flip buyers, or contractors looking for their next project. With strong ARV potential and growing demand near Lake Anna, this property presents an excellent opportunity to add value and maximize returns. Fully available and ready for a quick closing. Cash buyers preferred; 203K financing considered. Bring your vision and transform this diamond in the rough into something spectacular!

10. 2026-04-20
    historical Active Under Contract 875-char remark

    Show marketing remark (875 chars)

    Investor Special Here is an opportunity to be near Lake Anna, VA – Endless Potential! Unlock the possibilities with this rare fixer-upper opportunity in the highly desirable Lake Anna area. This spacious 3BR/2.5BA two-level home offers approximately 2,600 sq ft on a generous . 84-acre lot, providing the perfect canvas for a profitable renovation or resale project. The property requires updates and is being sold strictly as-is, making it ideal for experienced investors, fix-and-flip buyers, or contractors looking for their next project. With strong ARV potential and growing demand near Lake Anna, this property presents an excellent opportunity to add value and maximize returns. Fully available and ready for a quick closing. Cash buyers preferred; 203K financing considered. Bring your vision and transform this diamond in the rough into something spectacular!

11. 2026-03-26
    listed $190,000 Active 875-char remark

    Show marketing remark (875 chars)

    Investor Special Here is an opportunity to be near Lake Anna, VA – Endless Potential! Unlock the possibilities with this rare fixer-upper opportunity in the highly desirable Lake Anna area. This spacious 3BR/2.5BA two-level home offers approximately 2,600 sq ft on a generous . 84-acre lot, providing the perfect canvas for a profitable renovation or resale project. The property requires updates and is being sold strictly as-is, making it ideal for experienced investors, fix-and-flip buyers, or contractors looking for their next project. With strong ARV potential and growing demand near Lake Anna, this property presents an excellent opportunity to add value and maximize returns. Fully available and ready for a quick closing. Cash buyers preferred; 203K financing considered. Bring your vision and transform this diamond in the rough into something spectacular!

12. 2009-09-22
    historical
13. 2009-09-22
    historical
14. 2009-06-29
    soldstatus $49,000
15. 2009-06-29
    soldstatus $49,000
16. 2008-12-30
    historical
17. 2008-03-10
    listed $49,000
18. 2008-03-10
    listed $49,000
19. 2007-11-05
    listed $90,000
20. 2007-11-05
    listed $90,000
21. 2007-10-14
    historical
22. 2007-09-25
    listed $220,000
23. 2007-09-25
    listed $220,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,329 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,456 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$126/yr (+$11/mo · 9.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,648
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,943
• − Property taxes: −$1,329
• − Insurance: −$888
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,372
• − Management: −$2,372
• − Depreciation: −$5,164
• Taxable income: $7,581
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,820
• After-tax cash flow: $8,216/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Louisa County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102280
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,036
• Composite: 60.21/100
• National rank: #862
• State rank: #19 of 131 in VA

Livability — Mineral

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #246
• US rank: #8257

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,770

Population outlook (Louisa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,941 people
• By 2030: 37,752 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 38,605 · +4.5%
• By 2050: 38,480 · +4.2%
• By 2075: 38,011 · +2.9%
• By 2100: 34,748 · -5.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 7% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 3% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Louisa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.2) · D 36.5% · R 62.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.4pp toward R · 2008: -7.8pp · 2024: -26.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.2 2020: R+22.9 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+13.8 2008: R+7.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.99%
• Current HPI: 351.4933
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-13.6% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-20 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $190,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-09-22 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2009-09-22 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2009-06-29 Sold (MLS) $49,000 CVRMLS
• 2009-06-29 Sold (MLS) $49,000 CVRMLS
• 2008-12-30 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2008-03-10 Listed $49,000 CVRMLS
• 2008-03-10 Listed $49,000 CVRMLS
• 2007-11-05 Listed $90,000 CVRMLS
• 2007-11-05 Listed $90,000 CVRMLS
• 2007-10-14 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2007-09-25 Listed $220,000 CVRMLS
• 2007-09-25 Listed $220,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,329 · +12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.