211 Crockett Trace Dr · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 624 Days on market

Built 2014 0.32 ac lot $136/sqft · 10% above area Est $150k · 10% over $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• ARV discount +3.0/15.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LOW TAX RATE! Pride of ownership and well cared for Manufactured home. Considering an affordable approach to homeownership rather than renting? This might be a option for you. Clayton Homes comes complete with front and rear decks, skirting and vinyl siding. Newer home Spacious lot on approximately .32 acres of fenced land and ample space inside and out. Good location with plenty of parking with front driveway. Also has a HUD Manufacturing standards ag and is on a permanent raised foundation. Good value and well cared for.

Key facts

• Front and rear decks
• Manufactured home
• Fenced land

Tags

• MANUFACTURED HOME
• FRONT AND REAR DECKS
• SKIRTING AND VINYL SIDING
• SPACIOUS LOT
• APPROXIMATELY .32 ACRES
• FENCED LAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $253 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.8% in Cut and Shoot — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 624 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $165k implies a 535% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 624 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.57%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $149,900
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: 10.07%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16384 Ryan Guinn Way	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-1%)	2mo	$215,000	$179	91
16513 Anyon Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-1%)	10mo	$215,800	$180	67
16396 Ryan Guinn Way	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,347 (+11%)	10mo	$225,000	$167	67
334 Parkin Ct	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,269 (+4%)	1mo	$252,990	$199	66
16055 Tallis Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,269 (+4%)	5mo	$249,990	$197	66
16027 Tallis Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,269 (+4%)	7mo	$251,990	$199	64
356 Grafton Ct	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	14mo	$164,500	$135	64
516 Shoreview Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,269 (+4%)	10mo	$247,990	$195	64
16015 Tallis Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,269 (+4%)	8mo	$240,990	$190	63
460 Shoreview Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,269 (+4%)	11mo	$244,990	$193	61
16706 Langton Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,292 (+6%)	16mo	$165,000	$128	44
16479 Taurus Ct	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+10%)	15mo	$159,900	$119	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-15,644
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-12,239
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,708 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,745/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $253

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,388

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $346	-5% $299	+0% $253	+5% $206	+10% $159
Rent	-10% $118	-5% $185	+0% $253	+5% $320	+10% $388
Rate	-1.0pp $336	-0.5pp $295	base $253	+0.5pp $210	+1.0pp $167

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 624 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 623 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 622 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 621 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 619 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 615 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 614 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 613 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $165,000 Active 610 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 609 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 608 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 607 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 606 DOM
14. 2026-01-01
    status Active 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    LOW TAX RATE! Pride of ownership and well cared for Manufactured home. Considering an affordable approach to homeownership rather than renting? This might be a option for you. Clayton Homes comes complete with front and rear decks, skirting and vinyl siding. Newer home Spacious lot on approximately .32 acres of fenced land and ample space inside and out. Good location with plenty of parking with front driveway. Also has a HUD Manufacturing standards ag and is on a permanent raised foundation. Good value and well cared for.

15. 2025-12-31
    historical 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    LOW TAX RATE! Pride of ownership and well cared for Manufactured home. Considering an affordable approach to homeownership rather than renting? This might be a option for you. Clayton Homes comes complete with front and rear decks, skirting and vinyl siding. Newer home Spacious lot on approximately .32 acres of fenced land and ample space inside and out. Good location with plenty of parking with front driveway. Also has a HUD Manufacturing standards ag and is on a permanent raised foundation. Good value and well cared for.

16. 2025-04-19
    price $165,000 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    LOW TAX RATE! Pride of ownership and well cared for Manufactured home. Considering an affordable approach to homeownership rather than renting? This might be a option for you. Clayton Homes comes complete with front and rear decks, skirting and vinyl siding. Newer home Spacious lot on approximately .32 acres of fenced land and ample space inside and out. Good location with plenty of parking with front driveway. Also has a HUD Manufacturing standards ag and is on a permanent raised foundation. Good value and well cared for.

17. 2024-10-01
    listed $170,000 Active 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    LOW TAX RATE! Pride of ownership and well cared for Manufactured home. Considering an affordable approach to homeownership rather than renting? This might be a option for you. Clayton Homes comes complete with front and rear decks, skirting and vinyl siding. Newer home Spacious lot on approximately .32 acres of fenced land and ample space inside and out. Good location with plenty of parking with front driveway. Also has a HUD Manufacturing standards ag and is on a permanent raised foundation. Good value and well cared for.

18. 2021-10-07
    soldstatus
19. 2021-01-05
    soldstatus $26,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,745 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,020 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,274/yr (+$106/mo · 73.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,495
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,745
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,640
• − Management: −$1,640
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $399
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$96
• After-tax cash flow: $2,938/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+534.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-19 Price Changed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-01 Listed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2021-10-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+38.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,745 · +287.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.