6405 Conley St · Houston, TX 77021

$189,903

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,319 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 538 Days on market

Built 1940 4,499 sqft lot $144/sqft · at area comps Est $193k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CENTRAL HOUSTON! A nice and quaint retreat awaits in Central Houston. This fully fenced property features some notable details such as a nice kitchen with white wooden cabinets and ceramic tile backsplash. The bedrooms are spacious, and the family room is incredibly cozy. There is also a side carport and a covered front porch area that makes it even more inviting! This home is in a fantastic location with convenient access to I-45 and the 610 loop. The University of Houston, Downtown, and the Museum District are all within 6 miles of the property which means you will be able to enjoy everything that Houston has to offer. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Side carport
• 4,499 sq ft lot

Tags

• FULLY FENCED PROPERTY
• WHITE WOODEN CABINETS
• CERAMIC TILE BACKSPLASH
• SIDE CARPORT
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO I-45

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $249 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 467 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,933/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 2532% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 538 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 11077% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,114 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 538 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.62%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $192,945
• List price: $189,903
• Delta: -1.58%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6221 Conley St	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,344 (+2%)	8mo	$140,000	$104	84
6832 Goforth St	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,392 (+6%)	5mo	$98,000	$70	67
3914 Porter St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,254 (-5%)	9mo	$185,000	$148	64
7121 England St	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,296 (-2%)	1mo	$139,900	$108	63
6625 Goforth St	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,489 (+13%)	4mo	$142,000	$95	63
3811 Luca St	0.37mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,330 (+1%)	9mo	$150,000	$113	61
3719 Zephyr St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,415 (+7%)	6mo	$200,000	$141	56
3838 Daphne St	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,461 (+11%)	2mo	$269,000	$184	56
6326 Calhoun Rd	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,453 (+10%)	7mo	$299,000	$206	50
4512 Normandy Way	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+9%)	8mo	$200,000	$139	49
6907 Conley St	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,501 (+14%)	8mo	$314,999	$210	43
4715 Ward St	0.63mi	3/2.5	1,454 (+10%)	7mo	$230,000	$158	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-16,510
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-387
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,173 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77021

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 467
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,933 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$203 /mo · $2,433/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,617

Max offer price $189,903

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,476
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5813 England St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1473	$2,195	$1.49	4d	1	0.48mi
7032 Conley St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1220	$2,850	$2.34	44d	1	0.62mi
6532 Weston St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1484	$2,200	$1.48	18d	1	0.66mi
6528 Weston St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1484	$2,200	$1.48	44d	1	0.66mi
4705 Idaho St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1664	$2,500	$1.50	17d	1	0.68mi
3644 Griggs Rd Unit 1047940P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1399	$2,161	$1.54	2d	1	0.74mi
3560 Dixie Dr Apt 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,410	$1.07	8d	1	0.75mi
3560 Dixie Dr Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,410	$1.07	5d	1	0.75mi
3560 Dixie Dr Unit 3617 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,435	$1.09	44d	1	0.75mi
3560 Dixie Dr Unit 2165 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,402	$1.06	3d	1	0.75mi
3560 Dixie Dr Unit 3597 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,434	$1.08	11d	1	0.75mi
6336 Culberson St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1822	$2,361	$1.30	5d	1	0.84mi
6334 Culberson St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1822	$2,311	$1.27	2d	1	0.84mi
5924 Schroeder Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$895	$0.99	22d	1	0.86mi
5924 Schroeder Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$895	$0.99	44d	1	0.86mi
5918 Schroeder Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$1,000	$1.18	44d	1	0.87mi
3426 Tampa St Unit 4272026 Houston, TX	2.0	1.5	1046	$1,500	$1.43	44d	1	0.92mi
7321 Conley St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$2,025	$1.35	21d	1	0.94mi
7321 Conley St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1869	$2,025	$1.08	21d	1	0.94mi
6737 Peerless St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1732	$2,649	$1.53	17d	1	0.95mi
6735 Peerless St Unit CUNIT A Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1732	$2,649	$1.53	17d	1	0.95mi
3846 Seabrook St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1833	$2,300	$1.25	44d	1	1.00mi
3311 Daphne St Unit 1255369P Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1797	$6,544	$3.64	2d	1	1.00mi
3311 Daphne St Unit 3311 Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1800	$7,500	$4.17	44d	1	1.00mi
4907 Culmore Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,700	$1.50	17d	1	1.03mi
5123 Dewberry St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1391	$2,400	$1.73	44d	1	1.03mi
3655 Seabrook St Unit 6 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1600	$1,000	$0.62	44d	1	1.05mi
3732 Seabrook St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1727	$2,350	$1.36	24d	1	1.05mi
4722 Old Spanish Trl Unit B301 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1027	$1,695	$1.65	44d	1	1.07mi
5116 Griggs Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1131	$1,316	$1.16	44d	1	1.12mi
4942 Bataan Rd Unit 77033 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1350	$1,800	$1.33	44d	1	1.13mi
5154 Griggs Rd Unit CAVE Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,420	$1.07	3d	1	1.17mi
4907 Marietta Ln Unit 1494902P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1593	$3,278	$2.06	14d	1	1.20mi
3360 Alice St Unit 3387 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	968	$1,315	$1.36	3d	1	1.23mi
3360 Alice St Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	945	$966	$1.02	16d	1	1.23mi
3360 Alice St Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1154	$1,129	$0.98	3d	1	1.23mi
3360 Alice St Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	968	$1,323	$1.37	8d	1	1.23mi
3360 Alice St Unit 2292 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	945	$998	$1.06	44d	1	1.23mi
3360 Alice St Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	945	$991	$1.05	14d	1	1.23mi
3360 Alice St Unit 510 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1154	$1,172	$1.02	12d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,903 Active 538 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,903 Active 537 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,903 Active 536 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,903 Active 535 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,903 Active 533 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,903 Active 529 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,903 Active 528 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,903 Active 527 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $189,903 Active 524 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,903 Active 521 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,903 Active 520 DOM
12. 2026-03-14
    listed $1,699
13. 2026-02-18
    price $189,903 856-char remark

    Show marketing remark (856 chars)

    CENTRAL HOUSTON! A nice and quaint retreat awaits in Central Houston. This fully fenced property features some notable details such as a nice kitchen with white wooden cabinets and ceramic tile backsplash. The bedrooms are spacious, and the family room is incredibly cozy. There is also a side carport and a covered front porch area that makes it even more inviting! This home is in a fantastic location with convenient access to I-45 and the 610 loop. The University of Houston, Downtown, and the Museum District are all within 6 miles of the property which means you will be able to enjoy everything that Houston has to offer. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

14. 2026-02-02
    historical $1,699
15. 2025-07-08
    listed $1,699
16. 2025-06-26
    historical $1,699
17. 2024-12-28
    listed $1,699
18. 2024-12-27
    listed $193,903 Active 856-char remark

    Show marketing remark (856 chars)

    CENTRAL HOUSTON! A nice and quaint retreat awaits in Central Houston. This fully fenced property features some notable details such as a nice kitchen with white wooden cabinets and ceramic tile backsplash. The bedrooms are spacious, and the family room is incredibly cozy. There is also a side carport and a covered front porch area that makes it even more inviting! This home is in a fantastic location with convenient access to I-45 and the 610 loop. The University of Houston, Downtown, and the Museum District are all within 6 miles of the property which means you will be able to enjoy everything that Houston has to offer. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

19. 2024-12-27
    historical

    Show marketing remark (856 chars)

    CENTRAL HOUSTON! A nice and quaint retreat awaits in Central Houston. This fully fenced property features some notable details such as a nice kitchen with white wooden cabinets and ceramic tile backsplash. The bedrooms are spacious, and the family room is incredibly cozy. There is also a side carport and a covered front porch area that makes it even more inviting! This home is in a fantastic location with convenient access to I-45 and the 610 loop. The University of Houston, Downtown, and the Museum District are all within 6 miles of the property which means you will be able to enjoy everything that Houston has to offer. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

20. 2024-09-09
    price $193,903
21. 2023-12-28
    historical
22. 2023-11-16
    listed
23. 2023-10-12
    historical
24. 2023-04-24
    listed $199,900 Active
25. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,433 · $203/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,475 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,042/yr (+$87/mo · 42.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,191
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,638
• − Property taxes: −$2,433
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,855
• − Management: −$1,855
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$65
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$15
• After-tax cash flow: $3,003/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,153
• Household income: $45,574
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2532.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% White 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 19% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.22%
• Current HPI: 230.2869
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.17%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Listed for Rent $1,699 HARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $189,903 HARMLS
• 2026-02-02 Rental Removed $1,699 HARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed for Rent $1,699 HARMLS
• 2025-06-26 Rental Removed $1,699 HARMLS
• 2024-12-28 Listed for Rent $1,699 HARMLS
• 2024-12-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-12-27 Listed $193,903 HARMLS
• 2024-09-09 Price Changed $193,903 HARMLS
• 2023-12-28 Rental Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-11-16 Listed for Rent — HARMLS
• 2023-10-12 Rental Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-04-24 Listed $199,900 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,433 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.