16600 N 162nd Ln · Surprise, AZ 85374

$274,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,668 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1999 5,520 sqft lot Est $379k · 27% under $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Absolute Bargain! Unbelievable Price! Priced low for a great value on the best house. It won't last long at this low, low price, so hurry and do your buyer a favor and write me a squeaky clean full price offer today and save yourself all the fun of a full price counter offer!

Key facts

• 5,520 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1999

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community playground; HOA fee $90 quarterly (includes grounds maintenance)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood-frame construction; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Front and back desert landscaping; Front sprinklers with auto-timer

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Double vanity in master bath; Eat-in kitchen with breakfast bar; Full bathroom in master bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry area; Washer/dryer hookup only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2 ($-27/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kingswood Elementary School (math 29% / reading 33%, grade F, #525 of 1,109 statewide, top 48%, 791 students, 59% FRL); Cimarron Springs Middle School (math 45% / reading 49%, grade D+, #40 of 218 statewide, top 19%, 589 students, 35% FRL); Willow Canyon High School (math 36% / reading 44%, grade F, #70 of 381 statewide, top 18%, 1,787 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 406 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,067 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.04%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $378,636
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16600 N 162nd Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,668 (0%)	1mo	$318,000	$191	100
16247 W Post Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,617 (-3%)	0mo	$405,000	$250	86
15969 W Statler St	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,734 (+4%)	0mo	$430,000	$248	75
15899 N 161st Dr	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,682 (+1%)	2mo	$415,000	$247	72
15713 N 160th Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,753 (+5%)	1mo	$355,000	$203	62
16329 W Rimrock St	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,864 (+12%)	1mo	$431,000	$231	58
16039 N 165th Ln	0.50mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,558 (-7%)	2mo	$353,900	$227	57
15820 N 164th Ln	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,775 (+6%)	2mo	$395,000	$223	57
16303 W Sandia Park Dr	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,850 (+11%)	1mo	$385,000	$208	57
15877 N 161st Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,884 (+13%)	1mo	$391,000	$208	57
16218 N 159th Ave	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,458 (-13%)	1mo	$359,000	$246	56
17733 N Escalante Ln	0.67mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,870 (+12%)	1mo	$405,000	$217	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-50,791
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-68,009
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85374

• Home prices YoY: -18.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 406
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,141 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,280/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $-2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,144

Max offer price $274,597

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $153	-5% $76	+0% $-2	+5% $-80	+10% $-158
Rent	-10% $-171	-5% $-87	+0% $-2	+5% $82	+10% $167
Rate	-1.0pp $136	-0.5pp $68	base $-2	+0.5pp $-74	+1.0pp $-146

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16755 N Sarival Ave Surprise, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$2,255	$2.22	0d	1	0.15mi
16212 N 162nd Ave Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,889	$1.44	7d	1	0.23mi
16712 N 160th Ave Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1199	$1,750	$1.46	13d	1	0.33mi
16712 N 160th Ave Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,850	$1.54	26d	1	0.33mi
16723 N 160th Ave Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,600	$1.97	26d	1	0.34mi
16719 N 160th Ave Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,795	$1.36	26d	1	0.35mi
16559 W Post Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1603	$1,789	$1.12	24d	1	0.35mi
16612 W Cottonwood St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1603	$1,749	$1.09	1d	1	0.41mi
16612 W Cottonwood St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1603	$1,749	$1.09	20d	1	0.41mi
15919 W Tasha Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,845	$1.27	1d	1	0.43mi
15911 W Tasha Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1734	$1,880	$1.08	46d	1	0.45mi
15943 W Central St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1576	$1,895	$1.20	7d	1	0.47mi
16184 N 159th Ave Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2214	$2,700	$1.22	46d	1	0.52mi
16536 W Rock Springs Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1414	$1,995	$1.41	13d	1	0.53mi
15743 W Elm St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1065	$2,500	$2.35	7d	1	0.60mi
15847 W Bridgewood Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	2200	$3,850	$1.75	46d	1	0.61mi
16663 W Rimrock St Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2192	$2,195	$1.00	1d	1	0.61mi
15738 W Elm St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,595	$1.31	26d	1	0.62mi
16523 W Saguaro Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1621	$2,175	$1.34	4d	1	0.64mi
16829 W Cottonwood St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,850	$1.21	26d	1	0.65mi
15724 W Smokey Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,800	$1.48	26d	1	0.67mi
16545 N 157th Ave Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1065	$1,725	$1.62	46d	1	0.70mi
17460 N Estrella Vista Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1627	$3,200	$1.97	46d	1	0.72mi
15893 W Arrowhead Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1099	$1,700	$1.55	7d	1	0.73mi
16344 W Crater Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1495	$3,200	$2.14	46d	1	0.76mi
16630 N Reems Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	989	$2,050	$2.07	1d	11	0.82mi
15883 W Cisa Rio Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1414	$2,200	$1.56	46d	1	0.83mi
15528 N 156th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1668	$1,849	$1.11	6d	1	0.85mi
17647 N 167th Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	1789	$2,035	$1.14	15d	1	0.87mi
15866 W Cisa Rio Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1414	$3,200	$2.26	46d	1	0.88mi
15473 W Tasha Cir Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	2090	$4,500	$2.15	46d	1	0.91mi
17783 N El Dorado Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1647	$2,100	$1.28	46d	1	0.91mi
15797 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1988	$1,791	$0.90	15d	1	0.94mi
18121 N Key Estrella Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1909	$3,500	$1.83	46d	1	0.95mi
16270 W Cactus Valley Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1338	$1,875	$1.40	46d	1	0.97mi
17009 W Marconi Ave Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1419	$1,862	$1.31	46d	1	1.02mi
16166 N 170th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,775	$1.30	26d	1	1.04mi
16037 W Custer Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	2050	$2,045	$1.00	46d	1	1.05mi
15672 W Port au Prince Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1423	$1,745	$1.23	46d	1	1.07mi
17057 W Manchester Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1681	$1,695	$1.01	13d	1	1.07mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-19
   listed $274,999 Active
2. 2014-04-01
   historical
3. 2014-01-20
   price $162,500
4. 2014-01-02
   listed $170,000 Active
5. 2014-01-02
   listed $170,000
6. 2014-01-02
   historical
7. 2002-09-19
   soldstatus $122,500
8. 2002-09-12
   soldstatus $99,100
9. 2002-07-07
   historical
10. 2002-02-18
    listed $127,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,280 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,815 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: +$535/yr (+$45/mo · 41.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,688
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$1,280
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,055
• − Management: −$2,055
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$4,842
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,162
• After-tax cash flow: $1,135/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 41,420
• Household income: $81,201
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1120.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.93%
• Current HPI: 254.7782
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+150.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $318,000 Public Records
• 2026-06-04 Sold (MLS) $318,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-23 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Listed $274,999 ARMLS
• 2014-04-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2014-01-20 Price Changed $162,500 ARMLS
• 2014-01-02 Listed $170,000 ARMLS
• 2014-01-02 Listed $170,000 ARMLS
• 2014-01-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2002-09-19 Sold (Public Records) $122,500 Public Records
• 2002-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $99,100 Public Records
• 2002-07-07 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2002-02-18 Listed $127,200 ARMLS

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,280 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.