2946 Nixon Rd · Harlingen, TX 78550

$127,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 293 Days on market

Built 1959 1.00 ac lot $71/sqft · 54% below area ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Excellent investment opportunity for builders, developers, or investors. This 1-acre property is located in a prime area of Harlingen, Texas, with convenient access to Ed Carey Dr. , Valley Baptist Medical Center, and nearby dinning options. The home on the property is in need of major repairs and updates. Being sold as is, offering significant potential for renovation or redevelopment.

Key facts

• Convenient access
• Prime area
• 1 acre property

Tags

• 1 ACRE PROPERTY
• PRIME AREA
• CONVENIENT ACCESS
• SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $246 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $128k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 3.8% in Harlingen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#217 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, commute F.
• Harlingen CISD (urban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #647 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 465 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $884 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 293 days — a 12% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo; built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,552 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 293 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.36%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $280,530
• List price: $127,900
• Delta: -54.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3205 E Westgate Cir	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,815 (+1%)	12mo	$275,000	$152	74
4817 Westgate Cir N	0.18mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,736 (-4%)	14mo	$264,000	$152	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-4,233
• Equity at exit: $19,070

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $19,812
• Equity at exit: $11,058

Cash invested: $35,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78550

• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 465
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,559 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$671
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,667/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,247

Max offer price $127,900

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $319	-5% $283	+0% $246	+5% $210	+10% $174
Rent	-10% $123	-5% $185	+0% $246	+5% $308	+10% $370
Rate	-1.0pp $311	-0.5pp $279	base $246	+0.5pp $213	+1.0pp $180

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,975
• Closing costs: $3,837
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4617 Athena Dr Harlingen, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$2,000	$1.26	45d	1	0.92mi
1205 Maple St Harlingen, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,200	$0.89	22d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $127,900 Active 293 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $127,900 Active 292 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $127,900 Active 291 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $127,900 Active 290 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $127,900 Active 288 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $127,900 Active 285 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $127,900 Active 284 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $127,900 Active 283 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $127,900 Active 282 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $127,900 Active 278 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $127,900 Active 277 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $127,900 Active 276 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $127,900 Active 275 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $127,900 Active 274 DOM
15. 2026-05-04
    price $127,900 389-char remark

    Show marketing remark (389 chars)

    Excellent investment opportunity for builders, developers, or investors. This 1-acre property is located in a prime area of Harlingen, Texas, with convenient access to Ed Carey Dr. , Valley Baptist Medical Center, and nearby dinning options. The home on the property is in need of major repairs and updates. Being sold as is, offering significant potential for renovation or redevelopment.

16. 2025-08-29
    listed $135,000 Active 389-char remark

    Show marketing remark (389 chars)

    Excellent investment opportunity for builders, developers, or investors. This 1-acre property is located in a prime area of Harlingen, Texas, with convenient access to Ed Carey Dr. , Valley Baptist Medical Center, and nearby dinning options. The home on the property is in need of major repairs and updates. Being sold as is, offering significant potential for renovation or redevelopment.

17. 2003-08-21
    soldstatus
18. 1989-03-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,667 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,341 · $195/mo
• Expected delta: +$674/yr (+$56/mo · 40.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AO · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,709
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,164
• − Property taxes: −$1,667
• − Insurance: −$2,107
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,497
• − Management: −$1,497
• − Depreciation: −$3,721
• Taxable income: $1,057
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$254
• After-tax cash flow: $2,704/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlingen CISD
• NCES district ID: 4822530
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,182
• Composite: 24.94/100
• National rank: #7566
• State rank: #647 of 826 in TX

Livability — Harlingen

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #217
• US rank: #5347

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Harlingen, TX
• County: Cameron County · 310,734 people
• City population: 95,667
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• Population (ZIP): 53,335
• Household income: $49,007
• Rent vs Own: 49.5% rent · 50.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2251.0

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 83% Two or more races 29% White 14% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 76%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.60%
• Current HPI: 167.7038
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.45%
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $127,900 RGVMLS
• 2025-08-29 Listed $135,000 RGVMLS
• 2003-08-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,667 · +19.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.