5 Bentley Ct · Fredericksburg, VA 22408

$285,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,188 sqft · Townhouse public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1981 2,466 sqft lot Est $270k · 6% over $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• ARV discount +4.9/15.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRISTINE brick front townhome with fenced rear yard. 3 bedrooms, all with ceiling fans, new breaker box. Truly a MUST SEE!

Key facts

• $42 HOA
• Built 1981
• Listed 7 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA fee $500 annually; HOA covers common area maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public septic; Natural gas hot water; Electric cooling fuel; Natural gas heating fuel
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Brick front; Excellent condition; Effective year of major remodel: 2011
• Construction: Architectural shingle roof; Slab foundation; Double hung, double pane windows
• Exterior features: Gutter system; Patio(s); Fully wood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Built-in microwave; Electric oven/range; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (all upper levels); One half bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Heat pump(s); Attic fan; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Combination kitchen/dining area; Kitchen with table space; Not furnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in unit; ENERGY STAR clothes washer; Electric dryer; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-86 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $270k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (25.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.6% in Fredericksburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#299 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, schools A, employment A-; Watch: crime F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Spotsylvania County Public School District (rural): math 54% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #38 of 131 in VA (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 707 units permitted in Spotsylvania County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Spotsylvania County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $114k; list at $285k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,730 (25.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.29%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $269,676
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
303 Olde Greenwich Dr	0.10mi	3/1.5	1,188 (0%)	1mo	$283,000	$238	94
2 Manchester Ct	0.06mi	3/1.5	1,188 (0%)	5mo	$215,000	$181	93
309 Olde Greenwich Dr	0.10mi	3/1.5	1,260 (+6%)	3mo	$191,850	$152	83
162 Farrell Ln	0.11mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,152 (-3%)	3mo	$260,000	$226	78
513 Olde Greenwich Cir	0.21mi	3/1.5	1,260 (+6%)	7mo	$280,000	$222	74
727 Olde Greenwich Cir	0.18mi	3/1.5	1,296 (+9%)	6mo	$191,000	$147	72
2420 Lafayette Blvd	0.24mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,098 (-8%)	1mo	$293,000	$267	71
131 Farrell Ln	0.08mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,080 (-9%)	5mo	$245,000	$227	68
160 Farrell Ln	0.11mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,280 (+8%)	6mo	$294,500	$230	68
2418 Lafayette Blvd	0.25mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,098 (-8%)	6mo	$280,000	$255	66
2416 Lafayette Blvd	0.25mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,098 (-8%)	9mo	$282,000	$257	63
222 Farrell Ln	0.22mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,280 (+8%)	6mo	$278,000	$217	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-51,484
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-51,188
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22408

• Home prices YoY: -32.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,127 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,333/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $-86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,236

Max offer price $269,840

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $76	-5% $-5	+0% $-86	+5% $-166	+10% $-247
Rent	-10% $-254	-5% $-170	+0% $-86	+5% $-2	+10% $82
Rate	-1.0pp $58	-0.5pp $-13	base $-86	+0.5pp $-160	+1.0pp $-235

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
118 Farrell Ln Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1280	$1,995	$1.56	3d	1	0.08mi
726 Olde Greenwich Cir Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	1.5	1188	$2,000	$1.68	45d	1	0.19mi
727 Olde Greenwich Cir Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	1.5	1296	$2,395	$1.85	44d	1	0.21mi
125 Hillcrest Dr Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1466	$2,000	$1.36	2d	1	0.27mi
1704 Lafayette Blvd Fredericksburg, VA	2.0	1.0	902	$1,699	$1.88	2d	1	0.79mi
1704 Lafayette Blvd Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1068	$1,699	$1.59	4d	1	0.79mi
1704 Lafayette Blvd Fredericksburg, VA	2.0–3.0	1.0	985	$1,996	$2.03	2d	1	0.79mi
1704 Lafayette Blvd Fredericksburg, VA	2.0	1.0	902	$1,439	$1.60	18d	1	0.79mi
136 Wellington Lakes Dr Fredericksburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0	905	$1,693	$1.87	2d	1	0.86mi
136 Wellington Lakes Dr Fredericksburg, VA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,498	$1.50	2d	1	0.86mi
130 Springwood Dr Fredericksburg, VA	2.0	2.5	1100	$2,300	$2.09	2d	1	1.06mi
214 Kings Mill Ct Fredericksburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	923	$2,274	$2.46	2d	13	1.20mi
214 Kings Mill Ct Fredericksburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	855	$2,229	$2.61	11d	7	1.20mi
1318 Trestle Dr Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	3.0	1437	$2,600	$1.81	11d	1	1.30mi
1 Greenbrier Dr Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	1.0–2.0	764	$2,243	$2.94	2d	20	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $285,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   remarks 693-char remark
7. 2026-06-09
   listed $285,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,333 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,337 · $195/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,004/yr (+$84/mo · 75.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,528
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$1,333
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,042
• − Management: −$2,042
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$6,074
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,458
• After-tax cash flow: $428/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spotsylvania County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103640
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $78,321
• Composite: 55.79/100
• National rank: #1213
• State rank: #38 of 131 in VA

Livability — Fredericksburg

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #299
• US rank: #10735

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Spotsylvania County · 138,364 people
• City population: 207,206
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 31,586
• Household income: $110,112
• Rent vs Own: 22.1% rent · 77.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 657.0

Population outlook (Spotsylvania County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,292 people
• By 2030: 153,092 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 164,270 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 171,000 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 183,080 · +25.1%
• By 2100: 180,412 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Spotsylvania

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.6) · D 45.1% · R 53.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -6.9pp · 2024: -8.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.6 2020: R+6.8 2016: R+16.8 2012: R+11.5 2008: R+6.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.72%
• Current HPI: 259.5759
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+348.8% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Coming Soon $285,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-07-12 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-07-10 Listed $280,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-07-08 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-01-28 Sold (Public Records) $114,000 Public Records
• 2016-01-28 Sold (MLS) $114,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-01-28 Sold (MLS) $114,000 MRIS
• 2015-12-17 Pending — MRIS
• 2015-12-14 Listed $114,900 MRIS
• 2011-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $97,500 Public Records
• 2011-04-15 Sold (MLS) $97,500 MRIS
• 2011-04-15 Sold (MLS) $97,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-03-07 Pending — MRIS
• 2011-03-07 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-03-04 Listed $99,950 MRIS
• 2011-03-04 Listed $99,950 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2011-01-25 Sold (MLS) $60,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-01-25 Sold (MLS) $60,000 MRIS
• 2010-07-29 Pending — MRIS
• 2010-07-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-07-09 Listed $69,900 MRIS
• 2010-07-08 Listed $69,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $121,000 Public Records
• 2004-04-29 Sold (MLS) $121,000 MRIS
• 2004-03-14 Delisted — MRIS
• 2004-03-11 Listed $124,800 MRIS
• 2000-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records
• 2000-07-05 Sold (MLS) $63,000 MRIS
• 2000-06-03 Delisted — MRIS
• 1999-12-19 Listed $63,500 MRIS

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,333 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.