258 County Road 2281 · Cleveland, TX 77327

$139,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · Manufactured public records · 297 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2003 Average condition 0.50 ac lot $86/sqft · 31% below area Est $204k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -4.8

Listing remarks MLS

Half acre unrestricted lot with 3bdr/2ba in Tarkington ISD! Enjoy the peacefulness and beauty of the scattered trees on the huge 27x10 covered front porch. New HVAC system installed approximately 1 year ago. Enjoy the stone wood burning fireplace on the cold winter nights in your huge family room. This home includes an island kitchen, and also has an abundance of cabinets. Hurry before this one is gone.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Island kitchen
• Half acre lot

Tags

• HALF ACRE LOT
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• STONE WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• ABUNDANCE OF CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $156 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (9.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 5.0% in Cleveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Tarkington ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #373 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tarkington Early Childhood School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 193 students, 66% FRL); Tarkington Middle (math 45% / reading 32%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 414 students, 58% FRL); Tarkington H S (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 513 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1804 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 297 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,199 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 297 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.79%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $204,052
• List price: $139,999
• Delta: -31.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
350 County Road 304	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,563 (-4%)	16mo	$335,000	$214	49
281 County Road 306	1.35mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-8%)	7mo	$289,000	$193	47
557 County Road 3016	1.35mi	3/2.0	1,589 (-2%)	19mo	$535,000	$337	45
427 Couny Road 306	1.39mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-4%)	21mo	$270,000	$173	41
109 Lyle Ln	1.05mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+3%)	23mo	$343,000	$204	40
209 County Road 2279	0.80mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,792 (+10%)	12mo	$175,000	$98	33
19239 Highway 321	1.10mi	3/2.0	1,460 (-10%)	20mo	$340,000	$233	32
553 County Road 3016	1.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,242 (-24%)	7mo	$300,000	$242	29
275 County Road 3015	1.50mi	3/2.5	1,992 (+23%)	12mo	$540,000	$271	28
543 County Road 303	1.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,350 (-17%)	13mo	$290,000	$215	24
275 County Road 2279	0.80mi	3/1.5	1,250 (-23%)	21mo	$250,000	$200	21
472 County Road 306	1.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,904 (+17%)	18mo	$184,900	$97	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-11,486
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $8,024
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1804
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,273 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $682/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $156

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,075

Max offer price $139,999

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $236	-5% $196	+0% $156	+5% $117	+10% $77
Rent	-10% $56	-5% $106	+0% $156	+5% $207	+10% $257
Rate	-1.0pp $227	-0.5pp $192	base $156	+0.5pp $120	+1.0pp $83

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $139,999 Active 297 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $139,999 Active 295 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   remarks 430-char remark
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $139,999 Active 294 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $139,999 Active 293 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $139,999 Active 292 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $139,999 Active 289 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $139,999 Active 287 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   pricedays on market $139,999 Active 286 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $147,999 Active 284 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $147,999 Active 282 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $147,999 Active 281 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $147,999 Active 280 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $147,999 Active 279 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $147,999 Active 278 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $147,999 Active 276 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $147,999 Active 275 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $147,999 Active 274 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $147,999 Active 273 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $147,999 Active 272 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $147,999 Active 271 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $147,999 Active 270 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $147,999 Active 269 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $147,999 Active 268 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $147,999 Active 267 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $147,999 Active 265 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $147,999 Active 264 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $147,999 Active 263 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $147,999 Active 262 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $147,999 Active 261 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $147,999 Active 260 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $147,999 Active 259 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $147,999 Active 258 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $147,999 Active 257 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $147,999 Active 256 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $147,999 Active 255 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $147,999 Active 254 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $147,999 Active 252 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $147,999 Active 249 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $147,999 Active 246 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $147,999 Active 245 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $147,999 Active 244 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $147,999 Active 243 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $147,999 Active 241 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $147,999 Active 237 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $147,999 Active 236 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $147,999 Active 235 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $147,999 Active 232 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $147,999 Active 231 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $147,999 Active 230 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $682 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,562 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,880/yr (+$157/mo · 275.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,276
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$682
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,222
• − Management: −$1,222
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$464
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$111
• After-tax cash flow: $1,988/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,120–$24,360 screening

This home is in average condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and value. The deck and carpet are the most pressing needs for a fresh look and improved comfort.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Deck painting — Painted surface shows wear
• Minor Living room carpet — Worn appearance

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint deck — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace worn carpet — Improves comfort and aesthetics ↑
• Both Update kitchen cabinets — Modernizes space and adds value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Tarkington Early Childhood School F TX #1,769/4,322 Nat'l #21,438/41,679 Middle Tarkington Middle F TX #704/1,662 Nat'l #6,453/14,009 High Tarkington H S F TX #821/1,632 Nat'l #8,293/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tarkington ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842210
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,895
• Composite: 35.02/100
• National rank: #5044
• State rank: #373 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 87,956 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

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Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+5.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $147,999 HARMLS
• 2025-11-01 Price Changed $154,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-15 Listed $159,000 HARMLS
• 2022-07-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-06-30 Listed $159,000 HARMLS
• 2021-09-27 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-07-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-07-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-06-25 Listed $139,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $682 · -66.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.