258 County Road 2281 · Cleveland, TX 77327

$147,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · Manufactured public records · 246 Days on market

Built 2003 Average condition 0.50 ac lot $91/sqft · 27% below area Est $203k · 27% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Half acre unrestricted lot with 3bdr/2ba in Tarkington ISD! Enjoy the peacefulness and beauty of the scattered trees on the huge 27x10 covered front porch. New HVAC system installed approximately 1 year ago. Enjoy the stone wood burning fireplace on the cold winter nights in your huge family room. This home includes an island kitchen, and also has an abundance of cabinets. Hurry before this one is gone.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Island kitchen
• Half acre lot

Tags

• HALF ACRE LOT
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• STONE WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• ABUNDANCE OF CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $148k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $381 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $148k).
• Recommended offer: $130k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 4.7% in Cleveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Tarkington ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #373 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 246 days — a 12% lower offer ($130k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,239 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 246 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.03%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $203,098
• List price: $147,999
• Delta: -27.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,859
• Equity at exit: $22,067

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $39,501
• Equity at exit: $12,796

Cash invested: $41,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,614 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$776
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $682/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $381

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,132

Max offer price $147,999

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,000
• Closing costs: $4,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $147,999 Active 246 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $147,999 Active 245 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $147,999 Active 244 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $147,999 Active 243 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $147,999 Active 241 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $147,999 Active 237 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $147,999 Active 236 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $147,999 Active 235 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $147,999 Active 232 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $147,999 Active 231 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $147,999 Active 230 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $147,999 Active 229 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $147,999 Active 228 DOM
14. 2026-03-07
    price $147,999 410-char remark

    Show marketing remark (410 chars)

    Half acre unrestricted lot with 3bdr/2ba in Tarkington ISD! Enjoy the peacefulness and beauty of the scattered trees on the huge 27x10 covered front porch. New HVAC system installed approximately 1 year ago. Enjoy the stone wood burning fireplace on the cold winter nights in your huge family room. This home includes an island kitchen, and also has an abundance of cabinets. Hurry before this one is gone.

15. 2025-11-01
    price $154,900 410-char remark

    Show marketing remark (410 chars)

    Half acre unrestricted lot with 3bdr/2ba in Tarkington ISD! Enjoy the peacefulness and beauty of the scattered trees on the huge 27x10 covered front porch. New HVAC system installed approximately 1 year ago. Enjoy the stone wood burning fireplace on the cold winter nights in your huge family room. This home includes an island kitchen, and also has an abundance of cabinets. Hurry before this one is gone.

16. 2025-10-15
    listed $159,000 Active 410-char remark

    Show marketing remark (410 chars)

    Half acre unrestricted lot with 3bdr/2ba in Tarkington ISD! Enjoy the peacefulness and beauty of the scattered trees on the huge 27x10 covered front porch. New HVAC system installed approximately 1 year ago. Enjoy the stone wood burning fireplace on the cold winter nights in your huge family room. This home includes an island kitchen, and also has an abundance of cabinets. Hurry before this one is gone.

17. 2022-07-18
    historical
18. 2022-06-30
    listed $159,000 Active
19. 2021-09-27
    soldstatus Sold
20. 2021-07-09
    status Pending
21. 2021-07-01
    status Option Pending
22. 2021-06-25
    listed $139,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $682 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,708 · $226/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,027/yr (+$169/mo · 297.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,373
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,290
• − Property taxes: −$682
• − Insurance: −$740
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,550
• − Management: −$1,550
• − Depreciation: −$4,305
• Taxable income: $2,256
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$542
• After-tax cash flow: $4,028/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in average condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and value. The deck and carpet are the most pressing needs for a fresh look and improved comfort.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Deck painting — Painted surface shows wear
• Minor Living room carpet — Worn appearance

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint deck — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace worn carpet — Improves comfort and aesthetics
• Both Update kitchen cabinets — Modernizes space and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Deck painting · Painted surface shows wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Living room carpet · Worn appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint deck — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace worn carpet — Improves comfort and aesthetics ↑
• Both Update kitchen cabinets — Modernizes space and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tarkington ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842210
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,895
• Composite: 35.02/100
• National rank: #5044
• State rank: #373 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+5.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $147,999 HARMLS
• 2025-11-01 Price Changed $154,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-15 Listed $159,000 HARMLS
• 2022-07-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-06-30 Listed $159,000 HARMLS
• 2021-09-27 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-07-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-07-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-06-25 Listed $139,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $682 · -66.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.