302 Todd Rd Unit T · Woodbourne, NY 12788

$150,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,551 sqft · Condo · 33 Days on market

Built 1950 Fair condition $417/mo HOA · 25% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to desirable Buffalo Colony! This well-maintained 2-bedroom unit on Todd Road offers comfortable low-maintenance living in a peaceful community setting. Enjoy access to the community pool and beautifully kept grounds, perfect for relaxing during the warmer months. Conveniently located close to local amenities, shopping, and outdoor recreation. Annual HOA fees are approximately $5,000 and include community maintenance and amenities. A great opportunity for year-round living or a weekend getaway!

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Community pool
• $417 HOA

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• PEACEFUL COMMUNITY SETTING
• BEAUTIFULLY KEPT GROUNDS
• CLOSE TO LOCAL AMENITIES
• OUTDOOR RECREATION

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Buffalo Colony association; Annual association fee of $5,000; Association covers common area maintenance, exterior maintenance, pool service, sewer, and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electric service by NYSEG; Sewer available; Phone available
• Home design: Stock cooperative
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Back yard; Pool/Spa (building feature)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom(s) on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; Covered, screened porch with a deck
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $150k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-160 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $127k (15.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fallsburg Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #583 of 590 in NY (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Benjamin Cosor Elementary School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #2,024 of 2,108 statewide, top 97%, 810 students, 72% FRL); Fallsburg Junior Senior High School (math 52% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,046 of 1,100 statewide, top 96%, 684 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $126,830 (15.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.58%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $71,776
• Equity at exit: $135,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.24×
• Total profit: $219,949
• Equity at exit: $291,417

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12788

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,637 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$417
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $-160

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,840

Max offer price $126,830

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-56	-5% $-108	+0% $-160	+5% $-212	+10% $-264
Rent	-10% $-289	-5% $-225	+0% $-160	+5% $-95	+10% $-31
Rate	-1.0pp $-85	-0.5pp $-122	base $-160	+0.5pp $-199	+1.0pp $-239

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $417 · $5,004/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $150,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $150,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,648
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,572
• − Management: −$1,572
• − HOA: −$5,004
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$4,266
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,024
• After-tax cash flow: $-898/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 50/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and increase its value. Painting the exterior siding, refinishing or replacing the living area hardwood floors, and painting the interior walls can significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen countertops — Worn and could be replaced for a fresh look.
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Worn and could be replaced for a fresh look.
• Moderate Exterior siding — Discolored and could be repainted.
• Moderate Living area hardwood floors — Worn and could be refinished or replaced.
• Moderate Interior wall paint — Chipped and could be repainted.
• Major Landscaping — Overgrown and needs trimming and maintenance to improve curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Fresh paint can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and value.
• Resale Refinishing or replacing living area hardwood floors — Fresh floors can make the living area more inviting and increase the home's value.
• Resale Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can make the interior look more modern and increase the home's value.
• Both Trimming and maintaining landscaping — A well-maintained yard can improve curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen countertops · Worn and could be replaced for a fresh look.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom fixtures · Worn and could be replaced for a fresh look.	Minor	$500–3,000
Exterior siding · Discolored and could be repainted.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Living area hardwood floors · Worn and could be refinished or replaced.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Interior wall paint · Chipped and could be repainted.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Landscaping · Overgrown and needs trimming and maintenance to improve curb appeal.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$25,000–101,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Fresh paint can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and value. ↑
• Resale Refinishing or replacing living area hardwood floors — Fresh floors can make the living area more inviting and increase the home's value. ↑
• Resale Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can make the interior look more modern and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Trimming and maintaining landscaping — A well-maintained yard can improve curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fallsburg Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610950
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,513
• Composite: 23.84/100
• National rank: #7805
• State rank: #583 of 590 in NY

Livability — Woodbourne

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,122

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 16% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.93%
• Current HPI: 472.8635
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $150,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid