657-525 Susanville Rd · Bieber, CA 96006

$119,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · SingleFamily · 362 Days on market

Built 1945 Fair condition 1.01 ac lot $85/sqft · 27% below area Est $162k · 27% under ↓ 36% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy Home on 1 Acre in the Heart of Beautiful Bieber, California This cute 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a spacious 1-acre lot in the heart of beautiful Bieber. It's full of potential and just needs a little TLC to make it shine again. Conveniently located close to shopping and with easy travel access in any direction, this property offers both small-town charm and everyday convenience — a perfect opportunity to create your dream home or investment!

Key facts

• 1.01 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1945

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $119k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $210 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#813 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Big Valley Joint Unified (rural): math 20% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #1,113 of 1,400 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Lassen County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($823 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Lassen County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 362 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 362 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.57%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $162,319
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: -26.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.42% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $24,141
• Equity at exit: $49,679

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $71,811
• Equity at exit: $73,707

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96006

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,307 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$149 /mo · $1,785/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $210

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,041

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $119,000 Active 362 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 361 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 360 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 359 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $119,000 Active 357 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $119,000 Active 356 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $119,000 Active 355 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $119,000 Active 354 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $119,000 Active 353 DOM
10. 2026-02-07
    price $119,000 461-char remark

    Show marketing remark (461 chars)

    Cozy Home on 1 Acre in the Heart of Beautiful Bieber, California This cute 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a spacious 1-acre lot in the heart of beautiful Bieber. It's full of potential and just needs a little TLC to make it shine again. Conveniently located close to shopping and with easy travel access in any direction, this property offers both small-town charm and everyday convenience — a perfect opportunity to create your dream home or investment!

11. 2025-10-22
    price $129,000 461-char remark

    Show marketing remark (461 chars)

    Cozy Home on 1 Acre in the Heart of Beautiful Bieber, California This cute 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a spacious 1-acre lot in the heart of beautiful Bieber. It's full of potential and just needs a little TLC to make it shine again. Conveniently located close to shopping and with easy travel access in any direction, this property offers both small-town charm and everyday convenience — a perfect opportunity to create your dream home or investment!

12. 2025-08-25
    price $149,000 461-char remark

    Show marketing remark (461 chars)

    Cozy Home on 1 Acre in the Heart of Beautiful Bieber, California This cute 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a spacious 1-acre lot in the heart of beautiful Bieber. It's full of potential and just needs a little TLC to make it shine again. Conveniently located close to shopping and with easy travel access in any direction, this property offers both small-town charm and everyday convenience — a perfect opportunity to create your dream home or investment!

13. 2025-06-11
    listed $185,000 Active 461-char remark

    Show marketing remark (461 chars)

    Cozy Home on 1 Acre in the Heart of Beautiful Bieber, California This cute 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a spacious 1-acre lot in the heart of beautiful Bieber. It's full of potential and just needs a little TLC to make it shine again. Conveniently located close to shopping and with easy travel access in any direction, this property offers both small-town charm and everyday convenience — a perfect opportunity to create your dream home or investment!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 27 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,684
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,785
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,255
• − Management: −$1,255
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $667
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$160
• After-tax cash flow: $2,362/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home on a 1-acre lot in Bieber, CA requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate exterior siding — Weathered and discolored
• Major interior walls — Painted walls with visible damage
• Major bathroom — Bathtub with visible stains

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal
• Rental Replace carpet — Improves living space
• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances interior appearance and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Weathered and discolored	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
interior walls · Painted walls with visible damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom · Bathtub with visible stains	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$33,000–115,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Replace carpet — Improves living space ↑
• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances interior appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Big Valley Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0605010
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $45,860
• Composite: 26.64/100
• National rank: #12589
• State rank: #1113 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Bieber

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #813
• US rank: #22934

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment D+ Housing F Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bieber, CA
• Population (ZIP): 513

Population outlook (Lassen County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,112 people
• By 2030: 26,732 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 25,536 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 23,262 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 18,620 · -31.3%
• By 2100: 14,679 · -45.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lassen

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.0) · D 21.8% · R 75.8% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -34.2pp · 2024: -54.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.0 2020: R+51.5 2016: R+51.3 2012: R+39.8 2008: R+34.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.42%
• Current HPI: 165.2808
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-35.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $119,000 SAOR
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $129,000 SAOR
• 2025-08-25 Price Changed $149,000 SAOR
• 2025-06-11 Listed $185,000 SAOR