1044 Red Hawk Dr · Wallenpaupack Lake Estates, PA 18436

$329,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,480 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1987 0.34 ac lot $222/sqft · 24% above area Est $318k · at est. $204/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Lake Rights living in Wallenpaupack Lake Estates - A short walking distance to Beaver Lake and Beaver Lake Pool area. Enjoy the best of Pocono living in this 4 bedroom 2 bath home in WLE. Additional family room and a loft area add extra living space. This property offers lake rights to Lake Wallenpaupack along with 2 lakes within the full amenity community perfect for year round living or a relaxing getaway. This home features a bright open floor plan ideal for entertaining. A sunroom adds additional living space and bring in natural light, while the level lot provides easy outdoor enjoyment. A storage shed offers extra space for tools, toys or lake gear. Whether you're looking for a vacat

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• Community pool
• Built 1987

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with amenities including beach access, pool, marina, clubhouse, fitness center, playground, park, picnic area, party room, trash service, coin laundry, and beach rights; Annual association fee; includes maintenance of grounds, water, sewer, and security

Exterior

• Utilities: Cable available; Public sewer (connected); Propane available; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family house; Two stories; Main floor entry; Facing information not provided
• Construction: Wood siding; Asphalt roof; Block foundation; Built area above grade: 1,771
• Exterior features: Deck; Community pool; Shed(s); Level lot; Paved private road with private maintenance; Access to lake (community)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Stainless steel appliances; Refrigerator; Electric range
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Propane heating; Electric heating; Ceiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Gas log fireplace in the living room; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in a bathroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $329k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-404 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (27.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.5% in Wallenpaupack Lake Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#896 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wallenpaupack North Intrmd Sch (math 36% / reading 59%, grade D, #733 of 1,518 statewide, top 48%, 471 students, 63% FRL); Wallenpaupack Area Ms (math 23% / reading 57%, grade F, #257 of 512 statewide, top 52%, 644 students, 59% FRL); Wallenpaupack Area Hs (math 74% / reading 67%, grade B+, #48 of 437 statewide, top 11%, 990 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 44% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 341 active listings in the ZIP; 177 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$57k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($324k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $329k implies a 1216% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $239,080 (27.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.27%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $317,949
• List price: $329,000
• Delta: 3.48%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1085 Beaver Lake Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,417 (-4%)	6mo	$285,000	$201	73
1109 Wallenpaupack Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,408 (-5%)	6mo	$250,000	$178	70
1015 Hickory Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,592 (+8%)	17mo	$310,000	$195	65
1013 Arrowhead Ct	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,690 (+14%)	6mo	$313,000	$185	64
1010 Lotus Ter	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+4%)	10mo	$389,000	$253	59
1068 Indian Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,278 (-14%)	2mo	$280,000	$219	54
1141 Lakeland Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,542 (+4%)	12mo	$300,000	$195	53
1032 Deer Field Ct	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,612 (+9%)	9mo	$115,000	$71	52
28 Mockingbird Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (+1%)	17mo	$400,000	$267	49
1040 Rainbow Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,281 (-13%)	12mo	$276,000	$215	43
1036 Lakeland Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,265 (-14%)	18mo	$299,000	$236	40
1023 Tomahawk Rd	0.40mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,320 (-11%)	19mo	$185,000	$140	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $153,475
• Equity at exit: $296,389

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.13×
• Total profit: $472,309
• Equity at exit: $639,175

Cash invested: $92,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18436

• Home prices YoY: 16.9%
• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,391 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,725
• Tax from tax record: −$227 /mo · $2,721/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$204
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $-404

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,903

Max offer price $257,566

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-218	-5% $-311	+0% $-404	+5% $-497	+10% $-591
Rent	-10% $-593	-5% $-499	+0% $-404	+5% $-310	+10% $-215
Rate	-1.0pp $-239	-0.5pp $-321	base $-404	+0.5pp $-490	+1.0pp $-576

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,250
• Closing costs: $9,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $204 · $2,448/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $329,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $329,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $329,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $329,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $329,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $329,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $329,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 788-char remark
9. 2026-05-04
   listed $329,000 Active 788-char remark
10. 1986-09-01
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,721 · $227/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,959 · $330/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,239/yr (+$103/mo · 45.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,690
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,429
• − Property taxes: −$2,721
• − Insurance: −$1,645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,295
• − Management: −$2,295
• − HOA: −$2,448
• − Depreciation: −$9,571
• Taxable loss: −$10,714
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,571
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,281/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Wallenpaupack Lake Estates

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #896
• US rank: #9541

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wallenpaupack Lake Estates, PA
• Population (ZIP): 13,225

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,924 people
• By 2030: 46,191 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 42,815 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 39,873 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 34,556 · -27.9%
• By 2100: 28,358 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.1) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -37.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.1 2020: R+33.6 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.95%
• Current HPI: 331.9645
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+1216.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Relisted — PWMLS
• 2026-05-11 Pending — PWMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $329,000 PWMLS
• 1986-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,721 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.