14618 Geneva Dr · Odessa, FL 33556

$175,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 936 sqft · Manufactured public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1989 8,000 sqft lot Est $301k · 42% under · waterfront

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Rare waterfront opportunity on beautiful Lake Geneva in desirable Odessa. This property offers canal access to ski Lake Minneola, giving you the chance to enjoy two connected lakes and the lifestyle that comes with them. The true value here is in the land and the waterfront setting, but the property also includes a permanently installed 2-bedroom, 2-bath doublewide mobile home that offers flexibility while you plan your future build. The home is not currently connected to a well, so a new well will need to be installed, but it presents potential to live in or rent out while you design and build your dream home. Enjoy fishing, boating, skiing,

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Canal access
• Two connected lakes

Tags

• CANAL ACCESS
• TWO CONNECTED LAKES
• CUSTOM WATERFRONT HOME
• NO HOA
• GREAT SCHOOLS
• OUTDOOR RECREATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size about 0.18 acres (approximately 0.18 acre / 743 m²)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Has a 1-space carport
• Utilities: Private water; well required; Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Residential property; Faces north; Entry on one level
• Construction: Built with other/unspecified construction materials; Other/unspecified roof; Other foundation
• Exterior features: On waterfront with lake view; Water access to a chain of lakes; Water frontage approximately 50 feet; Skiing allowed on the lake chain; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Mini-split cooling
• Interior features: Thermostat; Living area listed as 936 square feet; One level
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $365 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.3% in Odessa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#389 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities D-, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Odessa Elementary School (math 76% / reading 72%, grade A, #249 of 2,144 statewide, top 12%, 976 students, 28% FRL); Seven Springs Middle School (math 73% / reading 65%, grade A, #68 of 571 statewide, top 12%, 1,628 students, 36% FRL); James W. Mitchell High School (math 60% / reading 63%, grade B-, #100 of 667 statewide, top 15%, 2,155 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 32% FRL vs 48% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 68% at this address vs 51% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Pasco average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 465 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($150k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 14 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $135k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $164,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.93%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $300,737
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1446 Osceola Hollow Rd	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,008 (+8%)	16mo	$240,000	$238	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-10,799
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,397
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33556

• Home prices YoY: -18.0%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 465
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,934 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$172 /mo · $2,069/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $365

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,472

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $464	-5% $414	+0% $365	+5% $315	+10% $266
Rent	-10% $212	-5% $288	+0% $365	+5% $441	+10% $517
Rate	-1.0pp $453	-0.5pp $409	base $365	+0.5pp $319	+1.0pp $273

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15175 Integra Jct Odessa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	970	$1,900	$1.96	16d	49	0.54mi
15175 Integra Jct Odessa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	970	$1,826	$1.88	1d	50	0.54mi
14232 Chisholm Ln Unit 1 Odessa, FL	2.0	2.0	1115	$1,875	$1.68	6d	1	0.69mi
2130 Leather Fern Dr Odessa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1119	$2,339	$2.09	0d	24	1.26mi
1470 Long Spur Odessa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1034	$2,140	$2.07	0d	30	1.27mi
1472 Long Spur Odessa, FL	2.0	2.0	1055	$2,125	$2.01	1d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $175,000 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $175,000 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-03-23
    listed $195,000 Active
15. 2021-05-10
    status Pending
16. 2021-05-10
    status Pending
17. 2021-05-10
    historical
18. 2021-05-10
    historical
19. 2021-05-06
    price $230,000
20. 2021-04-21
    price $135,000
21. 2021-04-21
    price $150,000
22. 2021-04-21
    listed $265,000 Active
23. 2021-03-15
    listed $175,000 Active
24. 2019-02-20
    historical
25. 2018-12-06
    listed $130,000 Active
26. 2018-11-15
    historical
27. 2018-11-15
    historical
28. 2018-09-26
    price $200,000
29. 2018-09-26
    price $200,000
30. 2018-09-14
    listed $229,000 Active
31. 2018-08-21
    listed $229,000 Active
32. 2015-06-03
    historical
33. 2015-06-03
    historical
34. 2015-02-25
    status Active
35. 2015-02-20
    historical
36. 2014-06-14
    status Active
37. 2014-06-10
    historical
38. 2014-06-10
    historical
39. 2014-05-07
    price $139,900
40. 2014-05-07
    price $152,000
41. 2014-05-07
    status Active
42. 2014-05-07
    price $159,987
43. 2014-02-28
    price $152,000
44. 2014-02-28
    price $139,900
45. 2014-02-28
    listed $168,970 Active
46. 2014-02-20
    listed $168,970 Active
47. 2011-04-16
    historical
48. 2011-04-16
    historical
49. 2011-03-08
    listed $125,000
50. 2011-02-27
    listed $125,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,069 · $172/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,069 · $172/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,206
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,069
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,856
• − Management: −$1,856
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $1,655
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$397
• After-tax cash flow: $3,979/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #389
• US rank: #6856

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Odessa, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 35,755
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,755
• Household income: $149,722
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 264.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 14% Black 6% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.75%
• Current HPI: 362.8168
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.48%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+225.0% since first listed

41 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Listed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-06 Price Changed $230,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-21 Price Changed $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-21 Price Changed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-21 Listed $265,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-15 Listed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-20 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-06 Listed $130,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-15 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-15 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-26 Price Changed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-26 Price Changed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-14 Listed $229,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-21 Listed $229,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-03 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-03 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-25 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-20 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-14 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-07 Price Changed $152,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-07 Price Changed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-07 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-07 Price Changed $159,987 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-02-28 Price Changed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-02-28 Price Changed $152,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-02-28 Listed $168,970 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-02-20 Listed $168,970 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-04-16 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-04-16 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-03-08 Listed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-02-27 Listed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-01-31 Listed $245,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 1999-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records
• 1994-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2018): $2,069 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.