5100 Lincoln Rd · Gananda, NY 14519

$199,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,336 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1830 3.50 ac lot $150/sqft · 44% below area Est $355k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity is KNOCKING!. .. 3 Bedroom, 1 bath Farmhouse on 3.5 acres. .. Original Wood floors, Spacious Living & Dining rooms along with an EAT-IN Kitchen. .. 1st floor bedroom / office or den! Enclosed front porch, Open back porch overlooking private yard. .. 200+ feet of road frontage give you plenty of space. .. MUST SEE. .. Property must be in MLS for 7 days before seller will respond. .. submit at will Offers will receive response within 24-48hrs (following initial 7 day exposure) This is CASH or REHAB Loan Only. .. NO Abstract or Survey provided.

Key facts

• 600 feet deep
• Groomed trails
• First floor living

Tags

• 3.5 ACRES
• 240 FEET OF ROAD FRONTAGE
• 600 FEET DEEP
• GROOMED TRAILS
• FIRST FLOOR LIVING
• FIRST FLOOR BEDROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (no garage)
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Public water connected; Septic tank; Cable available; High-speed internet available; Gas water heater
• Home design: 2-story; Existing construction
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Stone foundation; Copper and PEX plumbing
• Exterior features: Deck; Enclosed porch; Porch; Gravel driveway; Shed(s) / Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on main level; Main level primary; 1 main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Country kitchen; Pantry / Walk-in pantry; Home office; Natural woodwork; Programmable thermostat; See remarks
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $172 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (1.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.2% in Gananda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Wayne Central School District (suburban): math 57% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #194 of 590 in NY (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 259 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $91k; list at $200k implies a 120% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1830 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $196,750 (1.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1830 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.70%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $354,978
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -43.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
612 Plank Rd	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,400 (+5%)	8mo	$280,000	$200	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-21,382
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-4,358
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14519

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,968 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$250 /mo · $3,004/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $172

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,749

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-13
   listed $199,900 Active 1357-char remark
2. 2021-05-07
   soldstatus $91,000 Closed Sale or Rented 568-char remark

   Show marketing remark (568 chars)

   Opportunity is KNOCKING!. .. 3 Bedroom, 1 bath Farmhouse on 3.5 acres. .. Original Wood floors, Spacious Living & Dining rooms along with an EAT-IN Kitchen. .. 1st floor bedroom / office or den! Enclosed front porch, Open back porch overlooking private yard. .. 200+ feet of road frontage give you plenty of space. .. MUST SEE. .. Property must be in MLS for 7 days before seller will respond. .. submit at will Offers will receive response within 24-48hrs (following initial 7 day exposure) This is CASH or REHAB Loan Only. .. NO Abstract or Survey provided.

3. 2021-02-11
   status Pending Sale 568-char remark

   Show marketing remark (568 chars)

   Opportunity is KNOCKING!. .. 3 Bedroom, 1 bath Farmhouse on 3.5 acres. .. Original Wood floors, Spacious Living & Dining rooms along with an EAT-IN Kitchen. .. 1st floor bedroom / office or den! Enclosed front porch, Open back porch overlooking private yard. .. 200+ feet of road frontage give you plenty of space. .. MUST SEE. .. Property must be in MLS for 7 days before seller will respond. .. submit at will Offers will receive response within 24-48hrs (following initial 7 day exposure) This is CASH or REHAB Loan Only. .. NO Abstract or Survey provided.

4. 2021-01-24
   listed $79,900 Active 568-char remark

   Show marketing remark (568 chars)

   Opportunity is KNOCKING!. .. 3 Bedroom, 1 bath Farmhouse on 3.5 acres. .. Original Wood floors, Spacious Living & Dining rooms along with an EAT-IN Kitchen. .. 1st floor bedroom / office or den! Enclosed front porch, Open back porch overlooking private yard. .. 200+ feet of road frontage give you plenty of space. .. MUST SEE. .. Property must be in MLS for 7 days before seller will respond. .. submit at will Offers will receive response within 24-48hrs (following initial 7 day exposure) This is CASH or REHAB Loan Only. .. NO Abstract or Survey provided.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,004 · $250/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,191 · $266/mo
• Expected delta: +$187/yr (+$16/mo · 6.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,610
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$3,004
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,889
• − Management: −$1,889
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$1,184
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$284
• After-tax cash flow: $2,353/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wayne Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630330
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $61,193
• Composite: 54.18/100
• National rank: #1378
• State rank: #194 of 590 in NY

Livability — Gananda

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,487

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 85,662 people
• By 2030: 81,945 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 73,735 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 65,029 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 47,451 · -44.6%
• By 2100: 31,574 · -63.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 38.5% · R 61.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.53%
• Current HPI: 242.3518
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+150.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $199,900 UNYREIS
• 2021-05-07 Sold (MLS) $91,000 UNYREIS
• 2021-02-11 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2021-01-24 Listed $79,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,004 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.