10407 Goshawk Dr · Riverview, FL 33578

$239,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,508 sqft · Manufactured public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2005 8,500 sqft lot $39/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Welcome to 10407 Goshawk Drive in Riverview — a beautifully updated and FURNISHED 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home that combines modern upgrades with comfortable everyday living. From the moment you arrive, you’ll notice the attractive curb appeal featuring fresh landscaping, a COVERED CARPORT, and an EXTENDED DRIVEWAY for added convenience. Inside, the open-concept layout is filled with natural light and enhanced by updated flooring throughout. The spacious living area centers around a stunning stone WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere perfect for relaxing or entertaining guests. The KITCHEN was REMODELED in 2021

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Covered carport
• Remodeled kitchen

Tags

• COVERED CARPORT
• EXTENDED DRIVEWAY
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• SCREENED-IN BACK PORCH
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total living area reported as 1,508 (building area total 1,928); Lot listed as approximately 0 to less than 1/4 acre
• HOA & community: Brussels Boy Homeowners Association with required monthly fee of $39; Pets allowed: cats and dogs

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Cable available; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Residential property; One-level living (listed levels: One); Faces northwest
• Construction: Metal frame construction; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on lot sized about 0.2 acres (approx. 85 x 100)
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Storage; Above-ground private pool; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $248 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (2.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (2.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#134 in FL, #2,000 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Riverview High School (math 37% / reading 50%, grade F, #248 of 667 statewide, top 38%, 2,599 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 572 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,562 (2.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.43%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-29,945
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-32,285
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33578

• Home prices YoY: -12.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 572
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,346 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$208 /mo · $2,495/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$39
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $248

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,032

Max offer price $239,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $384	-5% $316	+0% $248	+5% $180	+10% $112
Rent	-10% $63	-5% $155	+0% $248	+5% $341	+10% $433
Rate	-1.0pp $369	-0.5pp $309	base $248	+0.5pp $186	+1.0pp $123

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10638 Laguna Plains Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	2014	$2,300	$1.14	19d	1	0.29mi
10631 Sweet Sapling St Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,224	$1.52	25d	1	0.42mi
11220 Beeswing Pl Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,400	$1.24	25d	1	0.43mi
10621 Sweet Sapling St Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,224	$1.52	25d	1	0.46mi
10611 Summer Azure Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	1805	$2,390	$1.32	15d	1	0.46mi
10615 Sweet Sapling St Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,224	$1.52	25d	1	0.48mi
10619 Sage Canyon Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	1742	$2,350	$1.35	19d	1	0.49mi
11116 Lake Tahoe Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,850	$1.38	0d	1	0.52mi
11424 Sage Canyon Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,300	$1.57	25d	1	0.56mi
10410 Fairy Moss Ln Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1817	$2,299	$1.27	19d	1	0.57mi
11436 Ivy Flower Loop Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1341	$2,170	$1.62	6d	1	0.63mi
11106 Havasu Ct Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1343	$2,100	$1.56	25d	1	0.69mi
10643 Lake Montauk Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1928	$2,150	$1.12	25d	1	0.70mi
10407 Lake Montauk Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1884	$2,150	$1.14	5d	1	0.71mi
11607 Storywood Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2079	$2,500	$1.20	25d	1	0.71mi
11535 Ivy Flower Loop Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	1926	$2,550	$1.32	5d	1	0.72mi
11621 Ivy Flower Loop Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,979	$1.52	0d	1	0.82mi
9904 Calypso Orchid Ct Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	1925	$2,700	$1.40	25d	1	0.84mi
11702 Miracle Mile Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1405	$2,105	$1.50	6d	1	0.84mi
10310 Lakeside Vista Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1462	$2,099	$1.44	6d	1	0.94mi
10210 Falcon Gate Loop Riverview, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	902	$2,109	$2.34	0d	40	0.95mi
10231 Opaline Sky Pl Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1496	$2,400	$1.60	19d	1	0.95mi
10236 Bright Crystal Ave Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,750	$1.42	6d	1	0.99mi
11855 Mountain Retreat Ln Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,399	$1.43	14d	1	1.01mi
10918 Winter Crest Dr Riverview, FL	2.0	2.0	1340	$1,800	$1.34	6d	1	1.02mi
11888 Mountain Retreat Ln Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,299	$1.37	22d	1	1.07mi
11915 Stoneport Pl Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,399	$1.43	0d	1	1.10mi
11351 Coconut Island Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1519	$2,015	$1.33	6d	1	1.16mi
11991 Stoneport Pl Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1758	$2,699	$1.54	14d	1	1.17mi
10243 Allenwood Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1454	$2,195	$1.51	6d	1	1.22mi
10540 Whispering Hammock Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1535	$2,185	$1.42	0d	1	1.23mi
10114 Allenwood Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1383	$2,190	$1.58	16d	1	1.26mi
9711 Magnolia View Ct Riverview, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1069	$2,507	$2.34	0d	30	1.31mi
11865 Mile Marsh Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	2053	$3,500	$1.70	18d	1	1.31mi
11865 Mile Marsh Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	2051	$3,500	$1.71	25d	1	1.31mi
11316 Maybrook Ave Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1454	$2,395	$1.65	25d	1	1.32mi
12214 Legacy Bright St Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1844	$2,400	$1.30	25d	1	1.35mi
10430 Whispering Hammock Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2086	$2,495	$1.20	4d	1	1.36mi
11124 Running Pine Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,300	$1.11	12d	1	1.43mi
11573 Hammocks Glade Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1430	$2,765	$1.93	14d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $39 · $468/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $239,900 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $239,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-05-12
   listed $250,000 Active 871-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,495 · $208/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,495 · $208/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,147
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$2,495
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,252
• − Management: −$2,252
• − HOA: −$468
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$936
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$225
• After-tax cash flow: $3,202/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Riverview

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #2000

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Riverview, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 137,988
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 60,651
• Household income: $85,921
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 3063.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 23% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 3% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Hispanic 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 19% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.42%
• Current HPI: 326.0368
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-26 Listed $239,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,495 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.