15111 Gwendolyn Dr · Homestead Meadows South, TX 79938

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1996 0.52 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CASH ONLY!!!

Key facts

• 0.52 acre lot
• Built 1996
• Listed 63 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $384 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,476 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Clint ISD (suburban): math 14% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #792 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 1183 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.41%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-5,647
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $19,481
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79938

• Home prices YoY: -8.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 1183
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,807 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $629/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $384

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,320

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-08
    status Active 12-char remark

    Show marketing remark (12 chars)

    CASH ONLY!!!

15. 2026-04-03
    status Pending 12-char remark

    Show marketing remark (12 chars)

    CASH ONLY!!!

16. 2026-03-12
    listed $175,000 Active 12-char remark

    Show marketing remark (12 chars)

    CASH ONLY!!!

17. 2023-03-01
    status Pending
18. 2023-01-12
    status Active
19. 2022-11-18
    status Pending
20. 2022-09-15
    price $110,000
21. 2022-08-23
    listed $115,000 Active
22. 2018-11-30
    soldstatus
23. 1997-01-29
    soldstatus
24. 1996-05-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $629 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,574/yr (+$214/mo · 409.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,681
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$629
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,735
• − Management: −$1,735
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $1,815
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$436
• After-tax cash flow: $4,176/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clint ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814430
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $37,490
• Composite: 15.03/100
• National rank: #9356
• State rank: #792 of 826 in TX

Livability — Homestead Meadows South

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1476
• US rank: #25289

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Homestead Meadows South, TX
• County: El Paso County · 761,266 people
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• Population (ZIP): 99,621
• Household income: $77,272
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 900.0

Population outlook (El Paso County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 897,899 people
• By 2030: 922,694 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 960,492 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 982,919 · +9.5%
• By 2075: 997,266 · +11.1%
• By 2100: 900,630 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 83% Two or more races 42% White 10% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 76% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 62%

Political lean MEDSL · El Paso

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+35.1 2016: D+43.2 2012: D+32.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -19.39%
• Current HPI: 207.2031
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.06%
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+52.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Relisted — GEPARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Pending — GEPARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $175,000 GEPARMLS
• 2023-03-01 Pending — GEPARMLS
• 2023-01-12 Relisted — GEPARMLS
• 2022-11-18 Pending — GEPARMLS
• 2022-09-15 Price Changed $110,000 GEPARMLS
• 2022-08-23 Listed $115,000 GEPARMLS
• 2018-11-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-01-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-05-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $629 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.