250 Butler Mill Rd · Porter, WA 98541

$140,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,172 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1978 5.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Prime investment opportunity on a large 217,800 sq ft lot! Property is currently occupied – no interior access, do not disturb occupants. Sold as-is with no inspections or contingencies. Cash or hard money only. Buyer to verify all details and handle possession post-closing. Excellent potential for investors seeking a value-add project. Priced to move quickly!

Key facts

• 5 acre lot
• Built 1978
• Listed 40 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $317 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#575 in WA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Elma School District (town): math 45% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #146 of 291 in WA (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 297 units permitted in Grays Harbor County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grays Harbor County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $135,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.71%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-2,514
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $23,723
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98541

• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,532 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,213/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $317

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,131

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $396	-5% $357	+0% $317	+5% $277	+10% $238
Rent	-10% $196	-5% $257	+0% $317	+5% $378	+10% $438
Rate	-1.0pp $388	-0.5pp $353	base $317	+0.5pp $281	+1.0pp $244

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-04-17
   listed $140,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,213 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,372 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$159/yr (+$13/mo · 13.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,390
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$1,213
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,471
• − Management: −$1,471
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $1,619
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$389
• After-tax cash flow: $3,416/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elma School District
• NCES district ID: 5302490
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,658
• Composite: 44.76/100
• National rank: #5959
• State rank: #146 of 291 in WA

Livability — Porter

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #575
• US rank: #25244

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Porter, WA
• Population (ZIP): 10,285

Population outlook (Grays Harbor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,443 people
• By 2030: 63,255 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 56,466 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 50,516 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,296 · -40.9%
• By 2100: 31,142 · -53.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 9% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Slovak 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grays Harbor

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.0) · D 45.6% · R 51.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: -6.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.0 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+7.1 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -174.43%
• Current HPI: 199.9988
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $140,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,213 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.