950 SE Serendipity Pl Unit COVE029 · Crystal River, FL 34429

$109,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured · 199 Days on market

Built 2025

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand New Home: "The Palmetto" Step into modern comfort with "The Palmetto", a beautifully designed new home packed with upscale features and thoughtful details. From its welcoming 6' front porch and concrete steps to the sleek interior finishes, this home is built for both style and function. Key Features: Covered carport with gutters for added protection, spacious 8x8 shed with a window - ideal for storage or a mini workshop, central air conditioning for year-round comfort, stylish laminate countertops with backsplash, chef-ready kitchen island and stainless steel appliance package, side-by-side refrigerator with ice maker, walk-in closets for ample storage, luxuriou

Key facts

• Spacious shed
• Covered carport
• Front porch

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• COVERED CARPORT
• SPACIOUS SHED
• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING
• LAMINATE COUNTERTOPS
• KITCHEN ISLAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 950 SE Serendipity Pl Unit COVE029, Crystal River, FL 34429; Listing last modified May 21, 2026
• Financial info: List price $109,999

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Utilities: Has heating; Has cooling
• Home design: Spec home — Plan: The Palmetto; Active listing
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,456

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Ceiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.4% vs local median 2.5% in Crystal River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#603 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 327 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,799 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.18%
• DSCR: 3.72
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $55,330
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.65×
• Total profit: $143,230
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34429

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Active inventory: 327
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$137 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $1,144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,502

Max offer price $109,999

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,220	-5% $1,182	+0% $1,144	+5% $1,106	+10% $1,068
Rent	-10% $911	-5% $1,027	+0% $1,144	+5% $1,260	+10% $1,377
Rate	-1.0pp $1,199	-0.5pp $1,172	base $1,144	+0.5pp $1,115	+1.0pp $1,086

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
540 N Afterglow Cir Crystal River, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,950	$1.97	22d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $109,999 Active 199 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $109,999 Active 197 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,999 Active 196 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,999 Active 195 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,999 Active 194 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,999 Active 193 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $109,999 Active 191 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,999 Active 190 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,999 Active 187 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $109,999 Active 186 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,999 Active 181 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,999 Active 180 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,999 Active 179 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,999 Active 178 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $109,999 Active 177 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$5,668
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,832
• − Management: −$2,832
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $13,056
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,133
• After-tax cash flow: $10,592/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Crystal River

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #603
• US rank: #11564

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crystal River, FL
• City population: 10,163
• Population (ZIP): 9,494

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.92%
• Current HPI: 271.3171
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B