2615 Avie Dr · Jennings, MO 63136

$43,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 922 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1941 5,279 sqft lot $47/sqft · 39% below area Est $70k · 39% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Priced to sell! 2 Bedroom 1 bath brick bungalow waiting for your TLC. Home features a full unfinished basement, tuck under garage and large back yard. Owner Occupant bid deadline is

Key facts

• 5,279 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1941

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 922 (public records); Lot includes approximately 0.1212 acres
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Natural gas available; Electricity available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Front yard; Back yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central electric air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Living room; Dining room; Basement with concrete floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $43k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $596 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $43k).
• Recommended offer: $42k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.9% vs local median 12.2% in Jennings — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#208 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, commute A-, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, employment F.
• Jennings (suburban): math 8% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #315 of 324 in MO (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 86% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Woodland Elem. (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #1,027 of 1,115 statewide, top 93%, 256 students, 100% FRL); Jennings High (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #497 of 521 statewide, top 96%, 691 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 372 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($297 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $43k implies a 115% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $41,710 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 59.38%
• DSCR: 3.64
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $70,186
• List price: $43,000
• Delta: -38.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2554 Main St	0.13mi	3/1.0 (+1)	920 (-0%)	2mo	$15,000	$16	87
2425 Shirley Ave	0.34mi	2/1.0	896 (-3%)	2mo	$34,900	$39	78
8808 Clifton Ave	0.68mi	2/1.0	912 (-1%)	2mo	$29,900	$33	65
7117 W Florissant Ave	0.49mi	2/1.0	992 (+8%)	1mo	$77,000	$78	64
5537 Sunbury Ave	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	936 (+2%)	0mo	$39,900	$43	60
9014 Ellison Dr	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	912 (-1%)	3mo	$99,900	$110	60
7471 Sharon Dr	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	945 (+2%)	0mo	$98,000	$104	59
5544 Sapphire Ave	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	888 (-4%)	3mo	$115,000	$130	57
8816 Cozens Ave	0.60mi	2/1.0	832 (-10%)	0mo	$55,000	$66	55
5614 Albia Ter	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	988 (+7%)	0mo	$125,000	$127	54
7439 Embury Ct	0.66mi	2/1.0	792 (-14%)	2mo	$69,000	$87	44
7431 Esterbrook Dr	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	792 (-14%)	2mo	$110,000	$139	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 67.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.93×
• Total profit: $47,308
• Equity at exit: $21,276

10-year hold

• IRR: 66.6%
• Equity multiple: 10.70×
• Total profit: $116,774
• Equity at exit: $34,385

Cash invested: $12,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63136

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,152 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$225
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $846/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $596

Break-even live

Break-even rent $397

Max offer price $43,000

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,750
• Closing costs: $1,290
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2623 Avie Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	921	$1,350	$1.47	43d	1	0.04mi
2527 Switzer Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	888	$1,135	$1.28	16d	1	0.21mi
2617 Hord Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	800	$775	$0.97	3d	1	0.23mi
2427 Switzer Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,300	$1.29	43d	1	0.32mi
7516 Chandler Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	728	$1,000	$1.37	43d	1	0.34mi
7441 Calvin Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1068	$1,350	$1.26	12d	1	0.35mi
2415 Shirley Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	990	$1,450	$1.46	23d	1	0.37mi
8908 Scottdale Ave Jennings, MO	2.0	1.0	790	$1,000	$1.27	43d	1	0.37mi
7426 Calvin Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,125	$1.02	17d	1	0.37mi
8347 Eton Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$1,075	$1.43	43d	1	0.40mi
8344 Eton Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$895	$1.19	3d	1	0.42mi
8720 Akins Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1012	$1,150	$1.14	23d	1	0.44mi
3 Pohlman Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	704	$1,000	$1.42	16d	1	0.45mi
5636 Statler Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	777	$1,200	$1.54	23d	1	0.45mi
7205 Calvin Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	832	$750	$0.90	43d	1	0.46mi
5613 Statler Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	864	$1,300	$1.50	4d	1	0.51mi
5640 Sapphire Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	43d	1	0.51mi
5600 Gatesworth Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	672	$1,095	$1.63	4d	1	0.56mi
7 Lamar Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	894	$1,200	$1.34	17d	1	0.58mi
7142 Lamont Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	17d	1	0.59mi
7414 Pleaseway Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	768	$1,100	$1.43	43d	1	0.61mi
7420 Pleaseway Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	952	$1,250	$1.31	21d	1	0.61mi
5615 Beldon Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	850	$950	$1.12	43d	1	0.63mi
7315 Albright Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	888	$1,150	$1.30	43d	1	0.67mi
7304 Albright Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	43d	1	0.70mi
8817 Shady Grove Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1085	$1,075	$0.99	23d	1	0.70mi
7218 Albright Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1100	$980	$0.89	23d	1	0.71mi
8893 Maya Ln Jennings, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	600	$930	$1.55	23d	6	0.75mi
7431 Esterbrook Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,350	$1.70	43d	1	0.77mi
5516 Fairridge Ct Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1110	$995	$0.90	23d	1	0.81mi
8527 Dianthus Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	976	$1,295	$1.33	43d	1	0.82mi
5637 Jennings Station Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1116	$895	$0.80	43d	1	0.85mi
8502 Dianthus Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1072	$1,175	$1.10	23d	1	0.85mi
1942 Damato Ct Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	905	$1,100	$1.22	43d	1	0.94mi
9547 Glen Owen Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	923	$985	$1.07	23d	1	0.96mi
7030 Emma Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	801	$1,350	$1.69	43d	1	0.98mi
5635 Hodiamont Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	580	$899	$1.55	20d	1	1.01mi
1550 Northwinds Estates Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	877	$1,050	$1.20	43d	1	1.05mi
7131 Garesche Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	918	$1,090	$1.19	3d	1	1.11mi
5662 Wilborn Dr Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	768	$850	$1.11	23d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $43,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $43,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $43,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $43,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $43,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $43,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $43,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $43,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $43,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $43,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $43,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $43,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-05-09
    listed $43,000 Active 398-char remark
14. 2026-05-08
    historical $43,000 398-char remark
15. 2020-04-13
    soldstatus $20,000
16. 2013-04-25
    soldstatus 183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (183 chars)

    Priced to sell! 2 Bedroom 1 bath brick bungalow waiting for your TLC. Home features a full unfinished basement, tuck under garage and large back yard. Owner Occupant bid deadline is

17. 2013-03-18
    listed $2,500 183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (183 chars)

    Priced to sell! 2 Bedroom 1 bath brick bungalow waiting for your TLC. Home features a full unfinished basement, tuck under garage and large back yard. Owner Occupant bid deadline is

18. 2001-12-06
    soldstatus $49,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $846 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $846 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,819
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,409
• − Property taxes: −$846
• − Insurance: −$215
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,105
• − Management: −$1,105
• − Depreciation: −$1,251
• Taxable income: $6,887
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,653
• After-tax cash flow: $5,497/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jennings
• NCES district ID: 2916290
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $30,595
• Composite: 11.04/100
• National rank: #9739
• State rank: #315 of 324 in MO

Livability — Jennings

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #208
• US rank: #10499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jennings, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,929
• Household income: $41,154
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3085.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 420.28
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-13.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Listed $43,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Coming Soon $43,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 2013-04-25 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-03-18 Listed $2,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $49,800 Public Records

Property tax history

-6.5%/yr

Latest (2022): $846 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.