1416 Florence Ln · Celina, TX 75009

$399,595

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,233 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 201 Days on market

Built 2025 $179/sqft · 8% below area Est $416k · at est. ↓ 10% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Diamond home shines with originality! The exterior of the home serves to be just as beautiful as the interior with its unique designs and beautiful columns structuring the home. The large front porch of the Diamond plan is perfect for relaxing and coffee-sipping. This two-story home is a flexible, open-concept floor plan boasting four bedrooms with two and a half full bathrooms for your convenience. Upon entry, you're greeted by the spacious family room combined with the formal dining area. This layout is perfect for entertaining your family and friends. Overlooking the dining area is the integrated kitchen and breakfast area, making this an ideal space for a family of any size! The kitchen comes equipped with a beautiful kitchen island and counters with granite countertops, designer light fixtures, industry-leading appliances, and a sizable walk-in pantry! With this conducive layout, you can remain part of the conversation, and never miss out on any fun with your visitors! Adjacent to the breakfast area is the convenient downstairs powder room and an extra closet for added storage space. Next to the breakfast area lies your large walk-in utility with your master bedroom just across the room. Retreat to your master bedroom to be met with your master bathroom including cultured marble countertops with double vanities, an elegant super shower, and a huge walk-in closet. With the Diamond floor plan, you have the option to relax in your backyard with an optional covered. ..

Key facts

• Large front porch
• Kitchen island
• Granite countertops

Tags

• LARGE FRONT PORCH
• INTEGRATED KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST AREA
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• WALK-IN PANTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-80 ($-963/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $385k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $301k (24.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $301k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.8% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Marcy B Lykins El (math 38% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 708 students, 22% FRL); Jerry & Linda Moore Middle (math 56% / reading 60%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 903 students, 20% FRL); Celina H S (math 44% / reading 72%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,074 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 2927 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 201 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $300,848 (24.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 201 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.86%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $416,302
• List price: $399,595
• Delta: -4.01%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1428 Florence Ln	0.02mi	4/3.0	2,196 (-2%)	1mo	$404,950	$184	93
1436 Bramante	0.06mi	4/3.0	2,193 (-2%)	1mo	$399,950	$182	91
1409 Bramante St	0.03mi	4/2.5	2,144 (-4%)	1mo	$349,990	$163	91
1424 Florence Ln	0.01mi	4/3.0	2,330 (+4%)	1mo	$414,970	$178	89
1425 Marcella Ln	0.08mi	4/2.5	2,144 (-4%)	1mo	$350,000	$163	88
1501 Buchanan Way	0.37mi	4/3.0	2,229 (-0%)	2mo	$365,999	$164	79
1737 Sugar Maple Mews	0.39mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,231 (-0%)	2mo	$417,635	$187	75
1439 Florence Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,041 (-9%)	3mo	$449,970	$220	74
1413 Buchanan Way	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,924 (-14%)	1mo	$336,999	$175	57
2401 Greenbelt Rd	0.70mi	4/2.0	2,083 (-7%)	1mo	$352,999	$169	53
1512 Canter St	0.51mi	4/3.5	2,501 (+12%)	1mo	$499,000	$200	51
2409 Greenbelt Rd	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,924 (-14%)	2mo	$324,999	$169	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-78,819
• Equity at exit: $59,581

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-109,862
• Equity at exit: $34,550

Cash invested: $111,887 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 2927
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,008 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,096
• Tax from tax record: −$195 /mo · $2,339/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$632
• Net cashflow: $-80

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,110

Max offer price $385,425

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $146	-5% $33	+0% $-80	+5% $-193	+10% $-306
Rent	-10% $-318	-5% $-199	+0% $-80	+5% $39	+10% $157
Rate	-1.0pp $121	-0.5pp $21	base $-80	+0.5pp $-184	+1.0pp $-289

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,899
• Closing costs: $11,988
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1424 Bettolo Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.5	2706	$3,450	$1.27	9d	1	0.10mi
2212 W J Fred Smith Pkwy Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1594	$3,500	$2.20	0d	1	0.39mi
1712 Goodnight Trl Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	2231	$2,450	$1.10	1d	1	0.41mi
2417 Blackwell St Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2098	$3,300	$1.57	0d	1	1.20mi
1404 Pintail Pl Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1626	$2,500	$1.54	1d	1	1.22mi
3100 Arthurdale St Celina, TX	4.0	2.0	2184	$2,399	$1.10	45d	1	1.33mi
401 Osprey Ln Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	2833	$3,150	$1.11	45d	1	1.34mi
2020 Beeflower St Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	2032	$2,399	$1.18	45d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $399,595 Active 201 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,595 Active 198 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,595 Active 197 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,595 Active 196 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,595 Active 195 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,595 Active 193 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,595 Active 189 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,595 Active 188 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,595 Active 187 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $399,595 Active 184 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,595 Active 183 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,595 Active 182 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    price $399,595 Active 181 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $397,900 Active 181 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $397,900 Active 180 DOM
16. 2025-12-12
    price $397,900 1498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1498 chars)

    The Diamond home shines with originality! The exterior of the home serves to be just as beautiful as the interior with its unique designs and beautiful columns structuring the home. The large front porch of the Diamond plan is perfect for relaxing and coffee-sipping. This two-story home is a flexible, open-concept floor plan boasting four bedrooms with two and a half full bathrooms for your convenience. Upon entry, you're greeted by the spacious family room combined with the formal dining area. This layout is perfect for entertaining your family and friends. Overlooking the dining area is the integrated kitchen and breakfast area, making this an ideal space for a family of any size! The kitchen comes equipped with a beautiful kitchen island and counters with granite countertops, designer light fixtures, industry-leading appliances, and a sizable walk-in pantry! With this conducive layout, you can remain part of the conversation, and never miss out on any fun with your visitors! Adjacent to the breakfast area is the convenient downstairs powder room and an extra closet for added storage space. Next to the breakfast area lies your large walk-in utility with your master bedroom just across the room. Retreat to your master bedroom to be met with your master bathroom including cultured marble countertops with double vanities, an elegant super shower, and a huge walk-in closet. With the Diamond floor plan, you have the option to relax in your backyard with an optional covered. ..

17. 2025-12-02
    listed $443,900 Active 1498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1498 chars)

    The Diamond home shines with originality! The exterior of the home serves to be just as beautiful as the interior with its unique designs and beautiful columns structuring the home. The large front porch of the Diamond plan is perfect for relaxing and coffee-sipping. This two-story home is a flexible, open-concept floor plan boasting four bedrooms with two and a half full bathrooms for your convenience. Upon entry, you're greeted by the spacious family room combined with the formal dining area. This layout is perfect for entertaining your family and friends. Overlooking the dining area is the integrated kitchen and breakfast area, making this an ideal space for a family of any size! The kitchen comes equipped with a beautiful kitchen island and counters with granite countertops, designer light fixtures, industry-leading appliances, and a sizable walk-in pantry! With this conducive layout, you can remain part of the conversation, and never miss out on any fun with your visitors! Adjacent to the breakfast area is the convenient downstairs powder room and an extra closet for added storage space. Next to the breakfast area lies your large walk-in utility with your master bedroom just across the room. Retreat to your master bedroom to be met with your master bathroom including cultured marble countertops with double vanities, an elegant super shower, and a huge walk-in closet. With the Diamond floor plan, you have the option to relax in your backyard with an optional covered. ..

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,339 · $195/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,313 · $609/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,974/yr (+$414/mo · 212.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,102
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,384
• − Property taxes: −$2,339
• − Insurance: −$1,998
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,888
• − Management: −$2,888
• − Depreciation: −$11,625
• Taxable loss: −$8,019
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,925
• After-tax cash flow: $962/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 152.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $397,900 Zillow
• 2025-12-02 Listed $443,900 Zillow

Property tax history

+57.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,339 · +57.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.