3877 Stratford Cir · Bemiss, GA 31605

$239,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1995 0.46 ac lot $117/sqft · at area comps Est $242k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Y'all don't want to miss this one! Beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch with over 2,000 sq ft and all the space you need. Easy one-level living, a great flowing layout, and a warm, inviting feel from the moment you walk in. Whether you're starting out, growing, or slowing down, this home just makes sense. Move-in ready with room to add your own touch-schedule your showing before it's gone!

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1995

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $39 ($467/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (17.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.7% in Bemiss — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lowndes County (rural): math 59% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #8 of 174 in GA (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Dewar Elementary (math 61% / reading 47%, grade C, #204 of 1,228 statewide, top 17%, 859 students, 50% FRL); Pine Grove Middle School (math 56% / reading 57%, grade B, #48 of 470 statewide, top 10%, 742 students, 50% FRL); Lowndes High School (math 69% / reading 51%, grade C+, #14 of 424 statewide, top 3%, 3,201 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 233 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 896 units permitted in Lowndes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lowndes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $113k; list at $239k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,163 (17.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.70%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $241,530
• List price: $239,000
• Delta: -1.05%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3907 Karaline Cir	0.43mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,044 (+0%)	2mo	$338,000	$165	70
4114 E Glen Laurel Dr	0.33mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,977 (-3%)	1mo	$339,900	$172	69
3912 Pine Rail Cir	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,850 (-9%)	3mo	$285,000	$154	67
3980 Brightwell Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,955 (-4%)	1mo	$310,000	$159	64
3993 Brightwell Dr	0.54mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,982 (-3%)	3mo	$324,900	$164	58
3840 Studstill Rd	0.35mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,216 (+9%)	3mo	$390,000	$176	58
4017 Gramercy Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,939 (-5%)	3mo	$310,000	$160	57
3999 Brightwell Dr	0.55mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,989 (-2%)	4mo	$323,900	$163	56
3826 Coventry Dr	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,758 (-14%)	2mo	$295,000	$168	52
4098 Gramercy Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,843 (-10%)	3mo	$317,000	$172	47
4031 Gramercy Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,787 (-12%)	3mo	$304,900	$171	42
4035 Gramercy Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,755 (-14%)	4mo	$350,000	$199	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-32,136
• Equity at exit: $35,636

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-7,172
• Equity at exit: $20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31605

• Home prices YoY: -11.5%
• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,962 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,894/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,912

Max offer price $239,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $174	-5% $107	+0% $39	+5% $-29	+10% $-96
Rent	-10% $-116	-5% $-39	+0% $39	+5% $116	+10% $194
Rate	-1.0pp $159	-0.5pp $100	base $39	+0.5pp $-23	+1.0pp $-86

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3919 Stratford Cir Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	2024	$1,900	$0.94	45d	1	0.14mi
3708 Black Gum Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.5	2278	$2,300	$1.01	23d	1	0.31mi
6412 Abney Ct Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.5	1459	$1,500	$1.03	23d	1	0.39mi
6416 Abney Ct Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.5	1459	$1,500	$1.03	45d	1	0.40mi
3824 Brookfield Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1517	$2,000	$1.32	23d	1	0.41mi
3925 Glen Laurel Dr S Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1510	$1,850	$1.23	23d	1	0.42mi
4032 Case Pt Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	1664	$2,050	$1.23	23d	1	0.44mi
3844 Coventry Dr Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	1765	$1,950	$1.10	23d	1	0.47mi
6043 Bemiss Towns Dr Bemiss, GA	3.0	2.5	1498	$1,675	$1.12	23d	1	0.52mi
4051 Gramercy Dr Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.5	1771	$2,300	$1.30	23d	1	0.73mi
3908 Countess Ct Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	1917	$2,250	$1.17	45d	1	0.79mi
4001 Conway Cir Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1797	$2,000	$1.11	23d	1	0.80mi
3912 Duke Ct Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,000	$1.08	23d	1	0.86mi
3964 Crusader Ct Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	1851	$2,400	$1.30	23d	1	0.89mi
6042 Bemiss Towns Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1537	$1,700	$1.11	23d	1	1.07mi
6023 Bemiss Towns Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.5	1498	$1,550	$1.03	23d	1	1.07mi
4007 Foxridge Ln Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	1450	$1,750	$1.21	23d	1	1.11mi
4120 Clay Dr Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	1806	$2,000	$1.11	23d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $239,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $239,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $239,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $239,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-05-13
   price $249,000 389-char remark

   Show marketing remark (389 chars)

   Y'all don't want to miss this one! Beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch with over 2,000 sq ft and all the space you need. Easy one-level living, a great flowing layout, and a warm, inviting feel from the moment you walk in. Whether you're starting out, growing, or slowing down, this home just makes sense. Move-in ready with room to add your own touch-schedule your showing before it's gone!

6. 2026-04-27
   price $254,000 389-char remark

   Show marketing remark (389 chars)

   Y'all don't want to miss this one! Beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch with over 2,000 sq ft and all the space you need. Easy one-level living, a great flowing layout, and a warm, inviting feel from the moment you walk in. Whether you're starting out, growing, or slowing down, this home just makes sense. Move-in ready with room to add your own touch-schedule your showing before it's gone!

7. 2026-04-13
   price $269,000 389-char remark

   Show marketing remark (389 chars)

   Y'all don't want to miss this one! Beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch with over 2,000 sq ft and all the space you need. Easy one-level living, a great flowing layout, and a warm, inviting feel from the moment you walk in. Whether you're starting out, growing, or slowing down, this home just makes sense. Move-in ready with room to add your own touch-schedule your showing before it's gone!

8. 2026-03-30
   listed $275,000 New 389-char remark

   Show marketing remark (389 chars)

   Y'all don't want to miss this one! Beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch with over 2,000 sq ft and all the space you need. Easy one-level living, a great flowing layout, and a warm, inviting feel from the moment you walk in. Whether you're starting out, growing, or slowing down, this home just makes sense. Move-in ready with room to add your own touch-schedule your showing before it's gone!

9. 2026-03-16
   price $275,000
10. 2026-03-03
    historical
11. 2026-02-25
    price $280,000
12. 2026-02-13
    listed $330,000 New
13. 2005-05-16
    soldstatus $113,000
14. 1998-09-30
    soldstatus $89,900
15. 1995-11-03
    soldstatus $84,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,894 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,199 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$305/yr (+$25/mo · 16.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$1,894
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,883
• − Management: −$1,883
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$3,656
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$877
• After-tax cash flow: $1,345/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lowndes County
• NCES district ID: 1303390
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,221
• Composite: 47.21/100
• National rank: #2317
• State rank: #8 of 174 in GA

Livability — Bemiss

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bemiss, GA
• County: Lowndes County · 107,801 people
• City population: 24,280
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 24,829
• Household income: $79,156
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 642.0

Population outlook (Lowndes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,348 people
• By 2030: 123,469 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 128,482 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 131,907 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 139,080 · +15.6%
• By 2100: 133,649 · +11.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lowndes

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 40.8% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.4pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+18.2 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.74%
• Current HPI: 189.8471
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.07%
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+193.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $249,000 GAMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $254,000 GAMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $269,000 GAMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $275,000 GAMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $275,000 SGMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $280,000 GAMLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $330,000 GAMLS
• 2005-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $113,000 Public Records
• 1998-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $89,900 Public Records
• 1995-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $84,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,894 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.