1208 Mary Ann Ct · Tioga, TX 76271

$325,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,689 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 2016 10,367 sqft lot Est $368k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this modern rock-brick home in the highly sought-after Tioga ISD! This home boasts 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms with spacious living area equipped with a beautiful rock fireplace + open concept kitchen with breakfast bar, gorgeous granite countertops and ample storage. The main suite split from secondary bedrooms includes garden tub with separate glass shower and oversized master closet. Find relaxation under the covered patio or take advantage of the oversized backyard for recreational leisure. Easy access to major highways for daily commutes and short distance to schools.

Key facts

• Brick and stone home
• Rich wood cabinetry
• Spacious lot

Tags

• BRICK AND STONE HOME
• SPACIOUS LOT
• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• STONE WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• RICH WOOD CABINETRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Possession at closing/funding; Exclusions: TVs
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with automatic opener (garage faces front); 2 covered parking spaces; Concrete driveway
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: City water (individual water meter); City sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Underground utilities; Asphalt street
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One-story; Built in 2016; Not attached to another property
• Construction: Brick, rock/stone and siding exterior; Shingle (composition) roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered rear porch and covered patio; Covered porch(es); Gutters; Private yard; Shed(s) on property; Wood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Ice maker; Built-in cabinets; Room for freezer
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (level 1) with custom closet system; dimensions approx. 15 x 13; Bedroom (level 1); dimensions approx. 12 x 10; Bedroom (level 1); dimensions approx. 12 x 10
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom (level 1) with dual sinks, garden tub and separate shower; granite countertop; dimensions approx. 11 x 9; Additional bathroom (level 1) with granite countertop; dimensions approx. 8 x 5
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric) with fireplace(s); Central air (electric); Living room wood-burning fireplace with stone surround
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Granite counters; Pantry; Decorative lighting; Cable TV available; High speed internet available; Storage; Room count: 8; Living areas: 1; Dining areas: 1; Levels: One
• Laundry & utility: Utility room; Full-size washer/dryer area; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-405 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (22.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $253k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#656 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Tioga ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #226 of 826 in TX (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $253,489 (22.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.34%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $368,202
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1207 Mary Ann Ct	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,762 (+4%)	2mo	$349,000	$198	90
603 Mohawk Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,674 (-1%)	7mo	$445,000	$266	85
304 Bradley St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,790 (+6%)	2mo	$390,000	$218	77
1008 N Main St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,605 (-5%)	8mo	$349,900	$218	75
1206 Cutler St	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,885 (+12%)	6mo	$345,000	$183	72
615 N Lamar St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,740 (+3%)	3mo	$400,000	$230	71
404 N Florence St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,535 (-9%)	0mo	$342,500	$223	69
612 Fawn Trl	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,676 (-1%)	7mo	$359,500	$214	66
713 Arapaho Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,667 (-1%)	2mo	$275,000	$165	65
402 E Main St	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,529 (-10%)	1mo	$299,999	$196	61
714 Mohawk Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,712 (+1%)	8mo	$439,900	$257	60
504 N Texas St	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,661 (-2%)	1mo	$525,000	$316	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.47% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $97,371
• Equity at exit: $235,264

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.32×
• Total profit: $302,090
• Equity at exit: $456,306

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76271

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$698 /mo · $8,377/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $-405

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,212

Max offer price $253,489

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-221	-5% $-313	+0% $-405	+5% $-497	+10% $-589
Rent	-10% $-618	-5% $-511	+0% $-405	+5% $-298	+10% $-192
Rate	-1.0pp $-241	-0.5pp $-322	base $-405	+0.5pp $-489	+1.0pp $-575

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
618 Kyle Dr Tioga, TX	4.0	2.0	1741	$2,700	$1.55	45d	1	0.41mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $325,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $325,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $325,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $325,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $325,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-08
    listed $325,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,377 · $698/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,377 · $698/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$8,377
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,592
• − Management: −$2,592
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$10,445
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,507
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,351/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tioga ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842870
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,096
• Composite: 40.38/100
• National rank: #3735
• State rank: #226 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tioga

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #656
• US rank: #12339

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tioga, TX
• City population: 1,864
• Population (ZIP): 1,864

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.47%
• Current HPI: 297.1567
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+12.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $325,000 NTREIS
• 2021-07-15 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2021-07-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-06-16 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2021-06-01 Pending — NTREIS
• 2021-05-26 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2021-05-14 Listed $290,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+27.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,377 · -4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.