8219 Carlton St · Norfolk, VA 23518

$220,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,324 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1953 Est $323k · 32% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

& quot; & quot; AS IS RANVH ON CORNER LOT. & quot; & quot; & quot; & quot; & quot; & quot;

Key facts

• Built 1953
• Listed 2 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $191 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (1.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (1.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.0% in Norfolk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#43 in VA, #1,026 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Norfolk City Public School District (urban): math 27% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #118 of 131 in VA (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 206 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 438 units permitted in Norfolk city in 2024 (273 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $165k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,963 (1.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.72%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $323,056
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8022 Chesapeake Blvd	0.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,260 (-5%)	4mo	$164,000	$130	70
8256 Chesapeake Blvd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+13%)	2mo	$358,000	$239	62
1614 Wapiti Ave	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-9%)	3mo	$330,000	$275	61
8216 Old Ocean View Rd	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,228 (-7%)	2mo	$333,000	$271	60
777 Marvin Ave	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,356 (+2%)	3mo	$328,000	$242	60
722 Burksdale Rd	0.71mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,324 (0%)	1mo	$323,500	$244	59
1802 Sunset Dr	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,225 (-8%)	1mo	$325,000	$265	56
8060 Chesapeake Blvd	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+13%)	3mo	$305,000	$203	56
8431 Old Ocean View Rd	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,443 (+9%)	0mo	$334,950	$232	55
840 Brentwood Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-9%)	0mo	$309,900	$258	54
8208 Wedgewood Dr	0.72mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,400 (+6%)	2mo	$305,000	$218	50
1417 Ramsey Rd	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+6%)	4mo	$402,900	$288	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-23,287
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-3,832
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23518

• Home prices YoY: -16.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,170 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$277 /mo · $3,330/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,928

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1214 Frank St Norfolk, VA	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,300	$1.84	12d	1	0.42mi
1346 Tallwood St Norfolk, VA	3.0	2.0	1293	$2,200	$1.70	3d	1	0.48mi
1622 Bill St Norfolk, VA	4.0	2.0	1528	$2,350	$1.54	2d	1	0.50mi
869 Bancker Rd Norfolk, VA	2.0	1.0–1.5	910	$1,142	$1.26	43d	1	0.56mi
8107 Old Ocean View Rd Norfolk, VA	4.0	1.0	1562	$2,095	$1.34	17d	1	0.60mi
8455 Radnor Rd Norfolk, VA	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,195	$1.33	23d	1	0.73mi
7922 Old Ocean View Rd Norfolk, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	890	$1,300	$1.46	1d	3	0.74mi
756 Norman Ave Norfolk, VA	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,875	$1.25	21d	1	0.79mi
7996 Diggs Rd Unit D Norfolk, VA	3.0	2.0	950	$1,375	$1.45	43d	1	0.87mi
1859 Branchwood St Unit 1492775P Norfolk, VA	3.0	2.0	1367	$3,800	$2.78	14d	1	0.91mi
719 E Bayview Blvd Norfolk, VA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,537	$1.81	3d	2	0.93mi
8507 Chapin St Norfolk, VA	4.0	2.0	1550	$2,400	$1.55	43d	1	0.95mi
6975 Bonnot Dr Norfolk, VA	3.0	1.5	1188	$1,700	$1.43	43d	1	1.00mi
1030 Creamer Rd Norfolk, VA	2.0	1.0	928	$1,600	$1.72	1d	1	1.01mi
619 Earl St Norfolk, VA	4.0	2.0	1428	$2,395	$1.68	43d	1	1.09mi
7465 Fenner St Unit 7468-2-A8 Norfolk, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,399	$1.55	20d	1	1.09mi
9322 Grove Ave Norfolk, VA	3.0	2.0	1365	$2,400	$1.76	7d	1	1.12mi
9322 Grove Ave Norfolk, VA	3.0	2.0	1365	$2,400	$1.76	23d	1	1.12mi
7120 Clarion Ln Norfolk, VA	4.0	2.0	1506	$2,300	$1.53	17d	1	1.13mi
1831 Banning Rd Norfolk, VA	3.0	2.0	1853	$2,500	$1.35	3d	1	1.17mi
7433 Fenner St Norfolk, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0	715	$1,399	$1.96	14d	7	1.19mi
7474 Pennington Rd Unit 7474 Norfolk, VA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,525	$1.52	1d	1	1.19mi
614 Dune St #2 Norfolk, VA	2.0	1.0	1350	$1,400	$1.04	43d	1	1.20mi
408 E Little Creek Rd Norfolk, VA	3.0	2.0	1224	$2,200	$1.80	43d	1	1.22mi
8065 W Glen Rd Norfolk, VA	4.0	2.0	1519	$2,350	$1.55	2d	1	1.32mi
1233 Oak Park Ave Norfolk, VA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,050	$1.71	43d	1	1.33mi
837 Tifton St Norfolk, VA	3.0	2.0	1072	$2,300	$2.15	23d	1	1.35mi
2204 Helsley Ave Norfolk, VA	3.0	1.0	1039	$2,000	$1.92	44d	1	1.38mi
2217 Helsley Ave Norfolk, VA	3.0	2.0	1039	$2,200	$2.12	2d	1	1.39mi
1336 E Balview Ave Norfolk, VA	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,300	$1.00	23d	1	1.40mi
1618 Kingston Ave Norfolk, VA	3.0	2.5	1640	$2,395	$1.46	17d	1	1.40mi
8212 Mona Ave Norfolk, VA	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,895	$1.81	20d	1	1.43mi
1635 E Ocean View Ave Norfolk, VA	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,300	$1.28	14d	1	1.44mi
1521 E Ocean View Ave #208 Norfolk, VA	2.0	1.5	1024	$1,595	$1.56	43d	1	1.46mi
8018 W Glen Rd Norfolk, VA	4.0	2.5	1700	$2,650	$1.56	43d	1	1.46mi
8516 Halprin Dr Norfolk, VA	3.0	1.0	1086	$2,395	$2.21	7d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   remarks 90-char remark
3. 2026-06-13
   listed $220,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,330 · $277/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,330 · $277/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,330
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,083
• − Management: −$2,083
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$1,283
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$308
• After-tax cash flow: $2,602/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Norfolk City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102670
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -44.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $44,358
• Composite: 35.08/100
• National rank: #5026
• State rank: #118 of 131 in VA

Livability — Norfolk

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #1026

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Norfolk, VA
• County: Norfolk City · 214,042 people
• City population: 214,042
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 29,746
• Household income: $77,594
• Rent vs Own: 41.0% rent · 59.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1143.0

Population outlook (Norfolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 249,032 people
• By 2030: 252,347 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 253,644 · +1.9%
• By 2050: 251,913 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 245,281 · -1.5%
• By 2100: 219,548 · -11.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Norfolk

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+41.5) · D 70.0% · R 28.5% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 43.0pp · 2024: 41.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+41.5 2020: D+45.6 2016: D+42.0 2012: D+44.0 2008: D+43.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.26%
• Current HPI: 296.2161
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.07%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+528.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $220,000 FSBO.com
• 2017-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2016-11-30 Pending — REINMLS
• 2016-11-28 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2016-10-13 Price Changed $165,000 REINMLS
• 2016-08-18 Listed $173,000 REINMLS
• 2007-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $190,800 Public Records
• 1985-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 1981-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,330 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.