1407 14th Cir · Barling, AR 72923

$50,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,311 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1990 5,227 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful , freshly renovated, one story home nestled in Barling. This three bedroom -two full bathroom home has a New roof, new floors, new paint, new kitchen… too many upgrades to list! Master bedroom has two closets and a bonus space that can be used as a Vanity Station or home office. This house has a large fully fenced yard with a a shed and concrete pad, perfect for nights around the fire pit! Boasting a parking area large enough for 3 to 4 cars in the driveway in addition to the one car garage. This one has everything you’ve been looking for!

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1990

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $681 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Cap rate 22.6% vs local median 2.4% in Barling — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#173 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Fort Smith School District (urban): math 35% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #106 of 238 in AR (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Barling Elementary School (math 52% / reading 32%, grade F, #173 of 454 statewide, top 43%, 330 students, 76% FRL); L. A. Chaffin Jr. High School (math 53% / reading 65%, grade B, #13 of 201 statewide, top 7%, 725 students, 54% FRL); Southside High School (math 36% / reading 53%, grade F, #31 of 292 statewide, top 12%, 1,956 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 388 units permitted in Sebastian County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sebastian County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $50,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.35%
• DSCR: 3.60
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $190,095
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1503 14th Cir	0.05mi	3/1.5	1,350 (+3%)	2mo	$186,000	$138	87
1508 M Cir	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,377 (+5%)	3mo	$105,000	$76	78
1501 Heather Pl	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-6%)	5mo	$205,000	$166	66
1205 M Ter	0.19mi	3/1.5	1,152 (-12%)	2mo	$164,000	$142	65
1012 J St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,435 (+10%)	4mo	$212,000	$148	65
1009 N St	0.25mi	3/1.5	1,125 (-14%)	0mo	$154,000	$137	60
1014 Tatum Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+14%)	1mo	$277,000	$185	59
802 F St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-5%)	6mo	$181,600	$145	56
806 Heather Way	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,140 (-13%)	4mo	$170,000	$149	55
1108 9th St	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,500 (+14%)	4mo	$180,000	$120	53
1002 Pattie Ln	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,136 (-13%)	3mo	$161,250	$142	52
504 M St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,469 (+12%)	1mo	$220,000	$150	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.52×
• Total profit: $35,255
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.18×
• Total profit: $86,526
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72923

• Home prices YoY: -4.3%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,257 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $355/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $681

Break-even live

Break-even rent $396

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $709	-5% $695	+0% $681	+5% $667	+10% $652
Rent	-10% $581	-5% $631	+0% $681	+5% $730	+10% $780
Rate	-1.0pp $706	-0.5pp $693	base $681	+0.5pp $668	+1.0pp $655

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1512 14th Cir Barling, AR	3.0	1.5	1169	$1,150	$0.98	14d	1	0.11mi
1206 Fort St Unit 841 Barling, AR	3.0	2.0	1215	$405	$0.33	22d	1	0.43mi
1206 Fort St Unit 854 Barling, AR	3.0	2.0	1131	$900	$0.80	22d	1	0.43mi
2215 Forrest Loop Barling, AR	2.0	2.0	900	$975	$1.08	14d	5	0.48mi
1406 Strozier Ct Barling, AR	3.0	2.0	1419	$1,500	$1.06	14d	1	0.50mi
1917 Casey Ct Barling, AR	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,495	$1.20	14d	1	0.59mi
1917 Yellowstone Dr Barling, AR	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,850	$1.48	22d	1	0.63mi
10810 Old Harbor Rd Unit 10804-11 Fort Smith, AR	2.0	1.5	920	$825	$0.90	14d	1	0.88mi
10810 Old Harbor Rd Unit 10800-16 Fort Smith, AR	2.0	2.0	920	$825	$0.90	14d	1	0.88mi
9608 Meandering Way Fort Smith, AR	2.0	2.0	970	$925	$0.95	14d	24	0.91mi
9313 Houston St Fort Smith, AR	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,600	$1.04	22d	1	1.17mi
2912 S 100th St Fort Smith, AR	3.0	2.0	1758	$1,850	$1.05	14d	1	1.20mi
9500 Dallas St Fort Smith, AR	3.0	2.5	1460	$1,450	$0.99	22d	1	1.26mi
9500 S Dallas St Fort Smith, AR	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1297	$1,450	$1.12	14d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2025-11-14
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-31
   listed $50,000 Active
3. 2022-11-23
   soldstatus $199,000 572-char remark

   Show marketing remark (572 chars)

   Beautiful , freshly renovated, one story home nestled in Barling. This three bedroom -two full bathroom home has a New roof, new floors, new paint, new kitchen… too many upgrades to list! Master bedroom has two closets and a bonus space that can be used as a Vanity Station or home office. This house has a large fully fenced yard with a a shed and concrete pad, perfect for nights around the fire pit! Boasting a parking area large enough for 3 to 4 cars in the driveway in addition to the one car garage. This one has everything you’ve been looking for!

4. 2022-11-04
   listed $199,000 572-char remark

   Show marketing remark (572 chars)

   Beautiful , freshly renovated, one story home nestled in Barling. This three bedroom -two full bathroom home has a New roof, new floors, new paint, new kitchen… too many upgrades to list! Master bedroom has two closets and a bonus space that can be used as a Vanity Station or home office. This house has a large fully fenced yard with a a shed and concrete pad, perfect for nights around the fire pit! Boasting a parking area large enough for 3 to 4 cars in the driveway in addition to the one car garage. This one has everything you’ve been looking for!

5. 2022-07-28
   soldstatus $101,000 108-char remark

   Show marketing remark (108 chars)

   Attention Investors. This house is a money maker! Needs lots of TLC! Call today for your private showing.

6. 2022-06-17
   listed $90,000 108-char remark

   Show marketing remark (108 chars)

   Attention Investors. This house is a money maker! Needs lots of TLC! Call today for your private showing.

7. 2006-06-06
   soldstatus $82,000
8. 2006-05-03
   soldstatus $52,000
9. 1991-05-20
   soldstatus $18,500
10. 1987-09-25
    soldstatus $19,000
11. 1980-09-03
    soldstatus $44,818

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $355 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $355 · $30/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,089
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$355
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,207
• − Management: −$1,207
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $7,815
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,876
• After-tax cash flow: $6,294/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Smith School District
• NCES district ID: 0506330
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $36,066
• Composite: 30.66/100
• National rank: #6183
• State rank: #106 of 238 in AR

Livability — Barling

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #173
• US rank: #14376

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Barling, AR
• County: Sebastian County · 99,312 people
• City population: 4,956
• Metro: Fort Smith, AR-OK
• Population (ZIP): 4,956
• Household income: $54,157
• Rent vs Own: 26.3% rent · 73.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 109.0

Population outlook (Sebastian County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 133,992 people
• By 2030: 136,620 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 140,832 · +5.1%
• By 2050: 143,301 · +6.9%
• By 2075: 147,964 · +10.4%
• By 2100: 145,848 · +8.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 7% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sebastian

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.5) · D 30.0% · R 67.6% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -34.6pp · 2024: -37.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.5 2020: R+35.5 2016: R+38.1 2012: R+37.1 2008: R+34.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.56%
• Current HPI: 212.4585
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fort Smith, AR-OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+11.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-14 Pending — WRVBOR
• 2025-10-31 Listed $50,000 WRVBOR
• 2022-11-23 Sold (MLS) $199,000 WRVBOR
• 2022-11-04 Listed $199,000 WRVBOR
• 2022-07-28 Sold (MLS) $101,000 WRVBOR
• 2022-06-17 Listed $90,000 WRVBOR
• 2006-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records
• 2006-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 1991-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $18,500 Public Records
• 1987-09-25 Sold (Public Records) $19,000 Public Records
• 1980-09-03 Sold (Public Records) $44,818 Public Records

Property tax history

-6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $355 · -23.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.