15445 Colbalt St #233 · Los Angeles, CA 91342

$280,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 16 Days on market

Built 1983 Est $287k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Xlnt Value! Spacious model features approximately 1440 sqft; large master suite with walk-in closet and Roman tub, Great Room-type living room w/ fireplace, formal dining, large kitchen w lots of cabinets and counter space. In-unit laundry room. Long carport. Great location within the park!-Disability Access:None (N)

Key facts

• 3 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 1983

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Exclusions: Refrigerator, washer and dryer
• Financial info: $806.44 monthly land lease
• HOA & community: Land lease (monthly); Rent includes pool; Community features: Valley, street lighting; Manager approval required

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (3 spaces); Has parking; Park name: Tahitian Mobile Home Park; Access via city streets
• Security: Gated community; 2+ access exits
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water; Natural gas connected; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Mobile home (double wide); Single-story; Entry on south side; Entry level: 1; Model: 5; Mobile home remains
• Construction: Mobile width 24 ft; Mobile length 60 ft; Year built source: Seller
• Exterior features: Concrete patio; Community pool; Block wall and wood fencing; Has fence; 2 sheds; Gentle slope lot; Rectangular lot shape

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Granite counters; Free standing range; Range/stove hood; Gas range; Tankless water heater
• Bedrooms: One-level home
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Bathtub; Shower in tub
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling; Central furnace
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Granite counters; Kitchen open to family room
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $786 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $280k).
• Recommended offer: $276k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 2.1% in Los Angeles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#273 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Los Angeles Unified (urban): math 29% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #223 of 517 in CA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 183 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $280k implies a 367% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $275,800 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.03%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $286,560
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15445 Cobalt #227	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,525 (+6%)	2mo	$303,000	$199	86
15831 Olden St #37	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,440 (0%)	2mo	$265,000	$184	73
15445 Cobalt St #68	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-10%)	14mo	$300,000	$231	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-5,280
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $21,311
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Los Angeles: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+22

LARSO + JCEO 2023; relocation for substantial remodel evictions.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91342

• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 183
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,444 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,200/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$723
• Net cashflow: $786

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,449

Max offer price $280,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13035 San Fernando Rd Unit 1 Sylmar, CA	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,445	$2.44	24d	1	0.23mi
13408 Glenoaks Blvd Unit 13408 Sylmar, CA	3.0	2.0	1479	$3,395	$2.30	22d	1	0.65mi
13615 Fellows Ave Sylmar, CA	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1094	$3,755	$3.43	20d	2	0.75mi
13637 Fellows Ave Unit 25 Sylmar, CA	4.0	3.0	1300	$3,761	$2.89	24d	1	0.75mi
13637 Fellows Ave Unit 5 Sylmar, CA	3.0	2.0	1000	$2,979	$2.98	43d	1	0.75mi
15232 Foothill Blvd #157 Sylmar, CA	3.0	3.0	1442	$3,795	$2.63	20d	1	0.85mi
12662 Bradley Ave Unit 1/2 Sylmar, CA	3.0	3.0	1620	$3,590	$2.22	43d	1	1.15mi
14635 Astoria St Unit Back House Sylmar, CA	4.0	2.0	1849	$3,799	$2.05	43d	1	1.19mi
14456 Foothill Blvd Sylmar, CA	3.0	2.5	1233	$3,300	$2.68	43d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $280,000 Coming Soon 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $280,000 Coming Soon 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $280,000 Coming Soon 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $280,000 Coming Soon 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $280,000 Coming Soon 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $280,000 Coming Soon 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $280,000 Coming Soon 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $280,000 Coming Soon 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $280,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-03
    listed $280,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥100°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,334
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$4,200
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,307
• − Management: −$3,307
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable income: $5,291
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,270
• After-tax cash flow: $8,164/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Los Angeles Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622710
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $50,403
• Composite: 35.67/100
• National rank: #4875
• State rank: #223 of 517 in CA

Livability — Los Angeles

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #273
• US rank: #9237

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Los Angeles, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 3,838,149
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 93,301
• Household income: $98,118
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2559.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 74% Two or more races 23% White 12% Asian 7% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 59%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 36% · Canada, South Korea, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 32% English-only · Spanish 59% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -921.77%
• Current HPI: 440.1462
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.02%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+273.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Coming Soon $280,000 CRMLS
• 2009-12-31 Sold (MLS) $60,000 CRMLS
• 2009-12-01 Pending — CRMLS
• 2009-10-21 Listed $75,000 CRMLS