129 Old Ithaca Rd · Horseheads, NY 14845

$30,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,714 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 181 Days on market

Built 1900 0.68 ac lot ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 129 Old Ithaca Rd. This home features 1,714 Sq Ft, 3 bedrooms and 1.5 Baths. It needs the right vision to be restored and show this homes true beauty. The home is boarded and will need a member of the maintenance department to come open up to see the inside. Sellers will arrange this for serious interest only.

Key facts

• 0.68 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1900

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 53.0% vs local median 5.1% in Horseheads — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#494 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, schools B; Watch: crime D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Horseheads Central School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #347 of 590 in NY (top 59%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Chemung County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chemung County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $26,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 52.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 166.75%
• DSCR: 8.42
• GRM: 1.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $221,106
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
142 Ridge Cir	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,732 (+1%)	2mo	$229,000	$132	63
103 Kinley Pl	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,654 (-4%)	4mo	$269,500	$163	63
503 Watkins Rd	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,876 (+10%)	16mo	$179,450	$96	43
417 Bush Ave	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,942 (+13%)	8mo	$222,000	$114	40
206 Westlake St	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,570 (-8%)	18mo	$190,426	$121	35
518 Perkins	0.62mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,564 (-9%)	20mo	$202,000	$129	35
605 Watkins Rd	0.65mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,968 (+15%)	11mo	$239,000	$121	31
412 Highland Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,522 (-11%)	18mo	$220,000	$145	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.27×
• Total profit: $69,508
• Equity at exit: $4,473

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.61×
• Total profit: $156,361
• Equity at exit: $2,594

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14845

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 1.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,740 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$38 /mo · $450/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $1,167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $262

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 28%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2025-12-17
   status Pending
2. 2025-08-28
   price $30,000
3. 2025-06-18
   listed $40,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,880
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$450
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,670
• − Management: −$1,670
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $14,386
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,453
• After-tax cash flow: $10,554/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Horseheads Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3614850
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $60,594
• Composite: 44.58/100
• National rank: #2781
• State rank: #347 of 590 in NY

Livability — Horseheads

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #494
• US rank: #8689

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 20,552

Population outlook (Chemung County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 82,931 people
• By 2030: 80,356 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 74,745 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 69,012 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 55,689 · -32.8%
• By 2100: 41,428 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chemung

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: -1.2pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+13.4 2016: R+20.0 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+1.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.23%
• Current HPI: 247.777
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-25.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-17 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $30,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-06-18 Listed $40,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

-34.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $13 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.