429 Shorty St · Mabank, TX 75147

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,396 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 2022 4,792 sqft lot Est $207k · 21% over ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this charming 3 bedroom, 2 bath brick property nestled on a quiet cul-de-sac street. Just a couple of years old, this home offers the comfort of modern construction with the convenience today’s buyers love. The open layout provides easy living, and the attached garage adds everyday practicality. Commuters will appreciate the quick access to the highway, making travel simple and efficient. The neighborhood features a community mailbox area, adding to the clean, organized feel of the subdivision. A wonderful opportunity for anyone seeking a well-kept home in a peaceful, commuter-friendly location. Don't miss out on the Seller concession of up to 6,000 in closing costs wi

Key facts

• Modern construction
• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Attached garage

Tags

• BRICK PROPERTY
• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• MODERN CONSTRUCTION
• OPEN LAYOUT
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• PEACEFUL LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association type: None
• Financial info: Listing accepted loan types: Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2 vehicles; Attached 2-car garage; Concrete driveway; Garage faces front; Inside entrance; Kitchen-level access to garage; Lighted parking
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity connected; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Built in 2022; Preowned
• Construction: Brick and wood construction; Asphalt roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Less than 0.5-acre lot; Community mailbox; Asphalt driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite countertops; Kitchen island; Pantry; Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Decorative lighting; Granite counters; Kitchen island; 5 total rooms; 1 living area; 1 dining area
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-416 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (29.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (30.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.1% in Mabank — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#446 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Mabank ISD (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #273 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central El (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 675 students, 64% FRL); Mabank Int (math 49% / reading 34%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 611 students, 66% FRL); Mabank H S (math 36% / reading 53%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,111 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.1%/yr); 215 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 90% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,571 (30.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.13%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $206,608
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
220 E Glenwood St	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,345 (-4%)	6mo	$190,000	$141	78
306 E Pine St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,477 (+6%)	7mo	$319,000	$216	75
212 E Pine St	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,448 (+4%)	12mo	$257,500	$178	73
111 Bexar St	0.55mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,401 (+0%)	4mo	$289,900	$207	63
116 Mcanally Dr	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,316 (-6%)	6mo	$189,000	$144	63
115 Mcanally Dr	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,288 (-8%)	2mo	$160,000	$124	61
211 W Mcafee Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,438 (+3%)	2mo	$209,000	$145	58
221 N 1st St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,466 (+5%)	7mo	$185,000	$126	53
106 Mcanally Dr	0.52mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,316 (-6%)	11mo	$194,500	$148	50
108 E Eubank St	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,295 (-7%)	8mo	$100,000	$77	50
210 W Andrew Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,352 (-3%)	13mo	$229,900	$170	44
205 N Canton St	0.68mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,321 (-5%)	11mo	$265,000	$201	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $118,804
• Equity at exit: $225,130

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.62×
• Total profit: $393,388
• Equity at exit: $485,501

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75147

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Rents YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 215
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,726 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$364 /mo · $4,373/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $-416

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,252

Max offer price $176,465

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-274	-5% $-345	+0% $-416	+5% $-486	+10% $-557
Rent	-10% $-552	-5% $-484	+0% $-416	+5% $-348	+10% $-279
Rate	-1.0pp $-290	-0.5pp $-352	base $-416	+0.5pp $-480	+1.0pp $-546

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
430 Shorty St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1571	$1,614	$1.03	45d	1	0.02mi
427 Shorty St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1571	$1,664	$1.06	45d	1	0.03mi
425 Shorty St Mabank, TX	4.0	2.0	1788	$1,614	$0.90	45d	1	0.03mi
429 Shorty St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,499	$1.07	45d	1	0.03mi
433 Shorty St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1571	$1,664	$1.06	45d	1	0.04mi
414 Shorty St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,564	$1.11	45d	1	0.05mi
471 Bobbie St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1571	$1,664	$1.06	45d	1	0.09mi
813 S Sutton St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1197	$1,399	$1.17	45d	1	0.10mi
101 Pharm Hls Unit 1303 Mabank, TX	2.0	2.0	1041	$1,064	$1.02	45d	1	1.02mi
112 Spring Crest St Mabank, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1750	$1,749	$1.00	0d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $249,900 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,900 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $249,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,900 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $249,900 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $249,900 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,900 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    remarks 693-char remark
13. 2026-06-07
    listed $249,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,373 · $364/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,573 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$201/yr (+$17/mo · 4.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,709
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$4,373
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,657
• − Management: −$1,657
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$9,495
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,279
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,710/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mabank ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828680
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,321
• Composite: 38.15/100
• National rank: #4267
• State rank: #273 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mabank

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #446
• US rank: #9068

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mabank, TX
• County: Van Zandt County · 9,177 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,177
• Household income: $56,940
• Rent vs Own: 36.9% rent · 63.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.14%
• Current HPI: 254.32
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.13%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.4% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $249,900 NTREIS
• 2026-05-23 Rental Removed $1,399 RENTLY
• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $1,399 RENTLY
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $1,445 RENTLY
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $1,475 RENTLY
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $1,499 RENTLY
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $1,575 RENTLY
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $1,599 RENTLY
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $1,649 RENTLY
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $1,695 RENTLY
• 2026-04-04 Listed for Rent $1,735 RENTLY
• 2026-02-14 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-02-09 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-02-03 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $193,900 NTREIS
• 2025-10-09 Listed $199,000 NTREIS
• 2025-01-20 Rental Removed $1,675 ZUMPER1
• 2025-01-19 Listed for Rent $1,675 ZUMPER1
• 2023-08-23 Rental Removed $1,495 NTREIS
• 2023-08-17 Listed for Rent $1,495 NTREIS
• 2023-01-09 Listed $269,990 NTREIS

Property tax history

+92.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,373 · -3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.