39 Cards Rd · Gillette, WY 82716

$49,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Other · 21 Days on market

Built 1986 Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Updated appliances
• Basketball court
• Propane heat

Tags

• BASKETBALL COURT
• UPDATED APPLIANCES
• PROPANE HEAT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $49k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $700 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#1 in WY, #820 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, commute F.
• Campbell County School District #1 (town): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #30 of 41 in WY (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 32 units permitted in Campbell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Campbell County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,265 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.23%
• DSCR: 3.72
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 60.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.67×
• Total profit: $36,665
• Equity at exit: $7,306

10-year hold

• IRR: 64.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.52×
• Total profit: $89,418
• Equity at exit: $4,237

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Wyoming: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+25
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable; small market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 82716

• Active inventory: 81
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,315 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$61 /mo · $735/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $700

Break-even live

Break-even rent $429

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $734	-5% $717	+0% $700	+5% $683	+10% $666
Rent	-10% $596	-5% $648	+0% $700	+5% $752	+10% $804
Rate	-1.0pp $725	-0.5pp $712	base $700	+0.5pp $687	+1.0pp $674

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $49,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $49,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $49,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $49,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    listed $49,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,777
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$735
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,262
• − Management: −$1,262
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $8,102
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,945
• After-tax cash flow: $6,456/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including painting, roof repair, and replacing flooring, windows, and HVAC systems. Improvements will significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Weathered and faded, likely needs repainting or replacement.
• Major roof — No visible damage, but siding suggests potential water damage underneath.
• Major flooring — No visible flooring, but overall condition suggests it may be old and in need of replacement.
• Major windows — No visible windows, but overall condition suggests they may be old and in need of replacement.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No visible systems, but overall condition suggests they may be old and in need of replacement.
• Major landscaping — Sparse grass and lack of landscaping suggest poor curb appeal and maintenance.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can significantly improve curb appeal and home value.
• Both repair roof — A repaired roof can prevent further water damage and improve the home's structural integrity.
• Both replace flooring — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Both replace windows — New windows can improve energy efficiency and increase the home's value.
• Both replace HVAC/mechanicals — Up-to-date HVAC and mechanical systems can improve comfort and energy efficiency, increasing the home's value.
• Both landscape — A well-maintained landscape can improve curb appeal and increase the home's value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Weathered and faded, likely needs repainting or replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · No visible damage, but siding suggests potential water damage underneath.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · No visible flooring, but overall condition suggests it may be old and in need of replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · No visible windows, but overall condition suggests they may be old and in need of replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No visible systems, but overall condition suggests they may be old and in need of replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Sparse grass and lack of landscaping suggest poor curb appeal and maintenance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can significantly improve curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Both repair roof — A repaired roof can prevent further water damage and improve the home's structural integrity. ↑
• Both replace flooring — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both replace windows — New windows can improve energy efficiency and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both replace HVAC/mechanicals — Up-to-date HVAC and mechanical systems can improve comfort and energy efficiency, increasing the home's value. ↑
• Both landscape — A well-maintained landscape can improve curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Campbell County School District #1
• NCES district ID: 5601470
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $77,045
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3328
• State rank: #30 of 41 in WY

Livability — Gillette

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #820

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Campbell County · 43,436 people
• City population: 43,436
• Metro: Gillette, WY
• Population (ZIP): 16,817
• Household income: $73,155
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 380.0

Population outlook (Campbell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,742 people
• By 2030: 60,329 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 67,211 · +18.5%
• By 2050: 73,621 · +29.7%
• By 2075: 89,568 · +57.9%
• By 2100: 99,210 · +74.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Campbell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+76.8) · D 11.0% · R 87.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.4pp toward R · 2008: -61.4pp · 2024: -76.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+76.8 2020: R+76.9 2016: R+80.6 2012: R+73.2 2008: R+61.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -175.40%
• Current HPI: 139.5275
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Gillette, WY
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $49,000 FSBO.com