104 Dufour Rd · St. Marys, GA 31558

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 972 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1981 $190/sqft · 17% below area Est $222k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming two-bedroom, one-bath bungalow located near downtown St. Marys, Georgia. Featuring an open living and dining area, a kitchen with a pantry, and a new stainless stove. The refrigerator stays! Enjoy a cozy breakfast nook at the serving bar. The home offers two comfortable bedrooms and one full bath, along with a delightful sun porch and a spacious fenced backyard. Plus, there’s both a one-car enclosed garage and a covered carport with concrete parking.

Key facts

• Cozy breakfast nook
• Delightful sun porch
• New stainless stove

Tags

• OPEN LIVING AND DINING AREA
• KITCHEN WITH A PANTRY
• NEW STAINLESS STOVE
• COZY BREAKFAST NOOK
• DELIGHTFUL SUN PORCH
• SPACIOUS FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Cash and Conventional financing accepted
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces; Attached garage; Detached parking available; Off-street parking; Kitchen-level parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity available; Phone available; Propane
• Home design: Single-family house; Resale property; One story
• Construction: Built in 1981; Stucco and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Chain link fenced, private level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast bar; Pantry; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Central vacuum; Tile bath; Dining room and living room combo; Sun room; One level living
• Laundry & utility: Dryer; Laundry located in the garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $163 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (5.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (5.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.0% in St. Marys — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Camden County (town): math 56% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #9 of 174 in GA (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Saint Marys Elementary School (math 67% / reading 50%, grade B-, #139 of 1,228 statewide, top 11%, 598 students, 48% FRL); Saint Marys Middle School (math 56% / reading 63%, grade B, #42 of 470 statewide, top 9%, 1,051 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 484 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 383 units permitted in Camden County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Camden County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,349 (5.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.32%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $222,458
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -16.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 Dufour Rd	0.00mi	2/1.0 (-1)	972 (0%)	0mo	$162,000	$167	91
509 Palmetto St	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,050 (+8%)	10mo	$219,900	$209	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-22,653
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-18,527
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31558

• Home prices YoY: -11.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 484
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,743 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,203/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,537

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
304 Admirals Walk Dr Saint Marys, GA	2.0	1.5	972	$2,300	$2.37	43d	1	0.65mi
306 Admiral's Walk Dr St Marys, GA	2.0	1.5	972	$2,200	$2.26	43d	1	0.65mi
2000 Harbor Pines Dr Saint Marys, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,324	$1.56	2d	9	0.67mi
307 Finley St Saint Marys, GA	2.0	1.0	628	$1,100	$1.75	2d	1	1.04mi
540 Chateau Cir Saint Marys, GA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,450	$1.45	21d	1	1.10mi
4450 St Marys, GA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	893	$1,591	$1.78	7d	17	1.14mi
207 Saint Patrick St Unit B St Marys, GA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	43d	1	1.40mi
900 Dilworth St Saint Marys, GA	2.0	1.5	940	$1,620	$1.72	23d	3	1.43mi
695 Douglas Dr Saint Marys, GA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,200	$1.43	43d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-03
   listed $185,000 New 463-char remark

   Show marketing remark (469 chars)

   Charming two-bedroom, one-bath bungalow located near downtown St. Marys, Georgia. Featuring an open living and dining area, a kitchen with a pantry, and a new stainless stove. The refrigerator stays! Enjoy a cozy breakfast nook at the serving bar. The home offers two comfortable bedrooms and one full bath, along with a delightful sun porch and a spacious fenced backyard. Plus, there’s both a one-car enclosed garage and a covered carport with concrete parking.

2. 2026-05-03
   listed $185,000 Active 469-char remark

   Show marketing remark (469 chars)

   Charming two-bedroom, one-bath bungalow located near downtown St. Marys, Georgia. Featuring an open living and dining area, a kitchen with a pantry, and a new stainless stove. The refrigerator stays! Enjoy a cozy breakfast nook at the serving bar. The home offers two comfortable bedrooms and one full bath, along with a delightful sun porch and a spacious fenced backyard. Plus, there’s both a one-car enclosed garage and a covered carport with concrete parking.

3. 2019-03-14
   soldstatus $87,000
4. 2019-03-12
   soldstatus $87,000

   Show marketing remark (225 chars)

   Wonderful renovated single family residence with 2 bedrooms, 2 baths, 1 car garage, and attached carport. Enclosed back porch, brand new carpet, interior paint. New roof in 2017, A/C in 2016 and large private fenced backyard.

5. 2018-11-29
   listed $89,900

   Show marketing remark (225 chars)

   Wonderful renovated single family residence with 2 bedrooms, 2 baths, 1 car garage, and attached carport. Enclosed back porch, brand new carpet, interior paint. New roof in 2017, A/C in 2016 and large private fenced backyard.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,203 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,702 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$499/yr (+$42/mo · 41.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,922
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$1,203
• − Insurance: −$1,722
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,674
• − Management: −$1,674
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$1,096
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$263
• After-tax cash flow: $2,224/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Camden County
• NCES district ID: 1300780
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $51,668
• Composite: 47.1/100
• National rank: #2331
• State rank: #9 of 174 in GA

Livability — St. Marys

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Marys, GA
• County: Camden County · 46,661 people
• Metro: St. Marys, GA
• Population (ZIP): 22,591
• Household income: $74,268
• Rent vs Own: 41.2% rent · 58.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1046.0

Population outlook (Camden County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,358 people
• By 2030: 54,841 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 54,295 · -0.1%
• By 2050: 51,529 · -5.2%
• By 2075: 42,990 · -20.9%
• By 2100: 33,094 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 14% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Camden

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.7) · D 31.9% · R 67.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.1pp toward R · 2008: -23.5pp · 2024: -35.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.7 2020: R+30.7 2016: R+33.9 2012: R+27.7 2008: R+23.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.90%
• Current HPI: 289.1157
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.22%
• Metro: St. Marys, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+80.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Sold (MLS) $162,000 GIAR
• 2026-06-05 Sold (MLS) $162,000 GAMLS
• 2026-05-28 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-05-28 Pending — GIAR
• 2026-05-03 Listed $185,000 GIAR
• 2026-05-03 Listed $185,000 GAMLS
• 2019-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records
• 2019-03-12 Sold (MLS) $87,000 GAMLS
• 2018-11-29 Listed $89,900 GAMLS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,203 · +963.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.