444 Spring Dr · Silver Springs Shores, FL 34472

$224,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,275 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1977 0.40 ac lot Est $198k · 14% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• ARV discount +1.3/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

LARGE (. 40 ACRE) CORNER FENCED YARD, OPEN FLOOR PLAN, FRESH PAINT, NEW TOILETS. GOOD HOUSE FOR GROWING FAMILY OR INVESTMENT HOUSE. PRICED TO SELL FAST.

Key facts

• 0.4 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1977

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-124 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (26.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (26.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#527 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Emerald Shores Elementary School (math 30% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,797 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 666 students, 74% FRL); Lake Weir Middle School (math 37% / reading 33%, grade F, #416 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 1,207 students, 76% FRL); Lake Weir High School (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #458 of 667 statewide, top 69%, 1,483 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 683 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $143k; list at $225k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,296 (26.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.37%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $197,625
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
457 Water Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,436 (+13%)	1mo	$135,000	$94	71
5 Water Pass	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,345 (+6%)	10mo	$239,900	$178	71
34 Bahia Court Trak	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,211 (-5%)	17mo	$154,979	$128	64
9321 Pine Ln	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,217 (-4%)	22mo	$188,750	$155	60
43 Pine Radl	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,242 (-3%)	4mo	$165,000	$133	55
9637 Bahia Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+8%)	5mo	$248,000	$180	53
47 Lake Court Loop	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,151 (-10%)	4mo	$140,000	$122	53
806 Bahia Cir	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,270 (-0%)	23mo	$261,000	$206	51
35 Pine Radl	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,091 (-14%)	2mo	$237,000	$217	40
11 Spring Lake Ln	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,180 (-8%)	19mo	$199,900	$169	34
517 Bahia Track Ct	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,392 (+9%)	21mo	$150,000	$108	32
101 Spring Loop	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,154 (-10%)	22mo	$140,000	$121	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.93% appreciation · 0.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $51,513
• Equity at exit: $140,424

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.38×
• Total profit: $149,622
• Equity at exit: $253,829

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34472

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 683
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,643 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,789/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $-124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,800

Max offer price $202,947

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3	-5% $-61	+0% $-124	+5% $-188	+10% $-252
Rent	-10% $-254	-5% $-189	+0% $-124	+5% $-59	+10% $6
Rate	-1.0pp $-11	-0.5pp $-67	base $-124	+0.5pp $-183	+1.0pp $-242

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
446 Water Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,425	$1.14	23d	1	0.16mi
455 Water Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,450	$1.14	15d	1	0.16mi
478 Water Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1228	$1,650	$1.34	23d	1	0.28mi
9337 Bahia Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,765	$1.26	15d	1	0.34mi
60 Bahia Court Trak Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,695	$1.20	23d	1	0.37mi
9610 Bahia Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,895	$1.17	23d	1	0.40mi
12 Spring Loop Ocala, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	15d	1	0.44mi
13 Pine Radial Dr Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,795	$1.24	23d	1	0.62mi
9649 Bahia Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1282	$1,595	$1.24	23d	1	0.68mi
708 Bahia Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,500	$1.11	23d	1	0.78mi
5 Cedar Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1064	$1,750	$1.64	23d	1	0.81mi
544 Silver Crse Ocala, FL	2.0	1.0	904	$1,395	$1.54	15d	1	0.88mi
619 Silver Pass Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1510	$1,495	$0.99	23d	1	0.95mi
633 Silver Pass Unit B Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1072	$1,500	$1.40	23d	1	0.99mi
593 Fairways Cir Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	1.5	1031	$1,200	$1.16	23d	1	1.00mi
549 Fairways Dr Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1072	$1,200	$1.12	23d	1	1.05mi
561 Fairways Cir Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	1.5	1031	$1,250	$1.21	23d	1	1.07mi
532 Bahia Cir Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	1.5	1027	$1,300	$1.27	23d	1	1.09mi
553 Fairways Cir Unit B Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1304	$1,700	$1.30	15d	1	1.09mi
582 Fairways Cir Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1304	$1,500	$1.15	23d	1	1.15mi
520 Fairways Cir Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	1.5	1027	$1,100	$1.07	23d	1	1.15mi
510 Fairways Cir Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,299	$1.30	23d	1	1.16mi
7 Pine Run Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,500	$1.05	15d	1	1.17mi
8 Ash Pass Run Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,650	$1.46	23d	1	1.17mi
43 Water Track Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1287	$1,799	$1.40	15d	1	1.23mi
2 Ash Dr Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1083	$1,750	$1.62	15d	1	1.23mi
567 Midway Trak Unit H201 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1029	$1,350	$1.31	15d	1	1.25mi
681 Midway Dr Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	23d	1	1.26mi
681 Midway Dr Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	15d	1	1.26mi
162 Bahia Terrace Dr Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	984	$1,375	$1.40	23d	1	1.28mi
608 Midway Dr Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	1.5	1054	$1,500	$1.42	15d	1	1.39mi
43 Bahia Pass Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,475	$1.24	23d	1	1.41mi
7455 Midway Ter Unit K Ocala, FL	2.0	1.0	904	$1,249	$1.38	23d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-09
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-09
   listed $224,900 Pending

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,789 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,867 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: +$77/yr (+$6/mo · 4.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,716
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$1,789
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,577
• − Management: −$1,577
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable loss: −$5,493
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,318
• After-tax cash flow: $-173/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Silver Springs Shores

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #527
• US rank: #9854

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Silver Springs Shores, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 34,665
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,851
• Household income: $64,208
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 655.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 14% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.93%
• Current HPI: 255.0714
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.17%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+517.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-18 Listed $224,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-08 Sold (MLS) $142,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-24 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-08 Listed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-11-12 Sold (MLS) $27,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-09-18 Listed $26,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records
• 2004-07-23 Sold (MLS) $73,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-01-23 Listed $73,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $36,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,789 · +15.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.