28 Hilltop Dr · Gastonville, PA
Flood risk 4/10 · Minor
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.22%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $511 – $949
Heat risk 3/10 · Minor
- Hot days now (above 97°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 18 days/yr
Wind risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 2 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 4 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- Livability +3.6/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Schools +2.4/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$64,900
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
2004 Commadore Trailor with one car attached garage with plenty of nice additions. Entryway from the exterior includes several attractive planters for those wanting to plant flowers or gardening. Steps to the front entry have been resurfaced. The screened-in covered front patio is perfect for three season entertainment. Interior is a nice mix of LVP flooring and nicely maintained carpeting. Eat-in Kitchen includes stainless steel refrigerator, stainless steel convection oven and gas stove + hood Vent. Primary bedroom includes a 12x5 Bath with shower. Laundry room is off the primary bedroom. One car attached garage has been updated with new backing and new stairwell into the home. Shed at th
Key facts
- 3,598 sq ft lot
- Garage
- Built 2005
Property features AI
Finance
- HOA & community: Association fee $705 monthly
Exterior
- Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1 parking space)
- Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
- Home design: Resale property
- Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof
- Exterior features: 30 x 120 lot dimensions
Interior
- Kitchen: Convection Oven; Stove; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator
- Bedrooms: Main-level bedrooms (two additional bedrooms listed with main level)
- Flooring: Laminate flooring; Carpet
- Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (Gas); Central air conditioning (Electric)
- Interior features: Multi-pane windows; Kitchen island; Pantry
- Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer; Dryer
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $252 ($3k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
- Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 2.5% in Gastonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 71/100 on livability (#726 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
- Ringgold SD (suburban): math 19% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #452 of 539 in PA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
- Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 489 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Washington County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: HOA is 41% of rent.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 2.66% ✓
- Cap rate
- 10.95%
- Cash-on-cash
- 16.64%
- DSCR
- 1.74
- GRM
- 3.1
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $111,540
- List price
- $64,900
- Delta
- -41.81%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 5 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90 Hidden Valley Dr | 0.28mi | 3/2.0 | 1,056 (-2%) | 5mo | $60,000 | $57 | 79 |
| 10 Roundtop Dr | 0.13mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,095 (+2%) | 9mo | $121,000 | $111 | 78 |
| 31 Hilltop Dr | 0.03mi | 3/2.0 | 1,188 (+10%) | 5mo | $126,000 | $106 | 78 |
| 28 Parkvue Dr | 0.07mi | 3/2.0 | 960 (-11%) | 12mo | $42,000 | $44 | 68 |
| 13 Hilltop Dr | 0.08mi | 3/2.0 | 1,232 (+14%) | 8mo | $131,000 | $106 | 66 |
| 36 Hidden Valley Dr | 0.18mi | 3/2.0 | 1,008 (-6%) | 19mo | $39,000 | $39 | 65 |
| 25 Parkvue Dr | 0.12mi | 3/2.0 | 1,232 (+14%) | 8mo | $91,000 | $74 | 64 |
| 42 Hilltop Dr | 0.04mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 938 (-13%) | 17mo | $33,000 | $35 | 57 |
| 5 Roundtop Dr | 0.09mi | 2/1.0 (-1) | 1,223 (+14%) | 20mo | $35,500 | $29 | 48 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 8.3%
- Equity multiple
- 1.33×
- Total profit
- $5,962
- Equity at exit
- $9,677
- IRR
- 18.0%
- Equity multiple
- 2.52×
- Total profit
- $27,612
- Equity at exit
- $5,611
Cash invested: $18,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 62 Landlord-Friendly
- State Pennsylvania
- 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 15332
- Home prices YoY
- -10.7%
- Active inventory
- 53
- Price-to-rent
- 3.1×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,725 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$340
- Tax from tax record
- −$39 /mo · $464/yr
- Insurance
- −$27
- HOA
- −$705
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$362
- Net cashflow
- $252
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $289 | -5% $270 | +0% $252 | +5% $234 | +10% $215 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $116 | -5% $184 | +0% $252 | +5% $320 | +10% $388 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $285 | -0.5pp $268 | base $252 | +0.5pp $235 | +1.0pp $218 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $16,225
- Closing costs
- $1,947
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 4 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6129 State Route 88 Finleyville, PA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1277 | $1,475 | $1.16 | 2d | 1 | 0.21mi |
| 201 Woods Edge Finleyville, PA | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1500 | $1,600 | $1.07 | 8d | 1 | 0.69mi |
| 3106 Southern Dr South Park, PA | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1125 | $1,695 | $1.51 | 2d | 1 | 0.90mi |
| 3001 Perimeter Blvd South Park, PA | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 926 | $2,105 | $2.27 | 2d | 20 | 1.43mi |
HOA detail
- Monthly dues
- $705 · $8,460/yr
- Likely covers
- gas
Listing history 16 events
-
2026-06-21days on market $64,900 Active 42 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $64,900 Active 39 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $64,900 Active 38 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $64,900 Active 37 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $64,900 Active 36 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $64,900 Active 34 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $64,900 Active 33 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $64,900 Active 30 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $64,900 Active 29 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $64,900 Active 28 DOM
-
2026-06-05days on market $64,900 Active 25 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $64,900 Active 24 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $64,900 Active 23 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $64,900 Active 22 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $64,900 Active 21 DOM
-
2026-05-09$64,900 Active 757-char remark
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $464 · $39/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $745 · $62/mo
- Expected delta
- +$281/yr (+$23/mo · 60.5%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 2/10 Low
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $20,703
- − Mortgage interest
- −$3,635
- − Property taxes
- −$464
- − Insurance
- −$324
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,656
- − Management
- −$1,656
- − HOA
- −$8,460
- − Depreciation
- −$1,888
- Taxable income
- $2,619
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$629
- After-tax cash flow
- $2,395/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Ringgold SD
- NCES district ID
- 4220400
- Math proficiency
- 19% ▼ -20.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 36% ▼ -18.00%
- Median HH income
- $46,754
- Composite
- 23.75/100
- National rank
- #7819
- State rank
- #452 of 539 in PA
Livability — Gastonville
- Score
- 71/100
- State rank
- #726
- US rank
- #7265
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Gastonville, PA
- County
- Washington County · 106,469 people
- Metro
- Pittsburgh, PA
- Population (ZIP)
- 7,678
- Household income
- $66,578
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 145.0
Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 208,060 people
- By 2030
- 207,168 · -0.4%
- By 2040
- 202,738 · -2.6%
- By 2050
- 195,269 · -6.1%
- By 2075
- 175,588 · -15.6%
- By 2100
- 145,827 · -29.9%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (94%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 94% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 11% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 2% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 98% English-only · Spanish 2%
Political lean MEDSL · Washington
- 2024 margin
- Strong R (+25.5) · D 36.9% · R 62.4%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -20.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.7pp · 2024: -25.5pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+25.5 2020: R+22.8 2016: R+25.3 2012: R+13.3 2008: R+4.7
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -28.78%
- Current HPI
- 239.7401
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- Pittsburgh, PA
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.68%
- F500 in state
- 34
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Healthcare | 2 | $309B |
|
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| Insurance | 2 | $27B |
|
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| Telecommunications / Media | 1 | $124B |
|
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| Industrial Distribution | 1 | $22B |
|
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| Financial Services | 1 | $20B |
|
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| Chemicals / Materials | 1 | $18B |
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Price history
1 event — show timeline
- 2026-05-09 Listed $64,900 West Penn MLS
Property tax history
-5.0%/yrLatest (2026): $464 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…