3906 Harlingen St · Dallas, TX 75212

$580,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,000 sqft · Land · 82 Days on market

Built 2026 7,231 sqft lot $193/sqft · 32% above area Est $440k · 32% over ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.4/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into modern luxury with this stunning new construction home designed to impress from the moment you walk in. Soaring high ceilings create an open, airy feel, perfectly complemented by an abundance of natural light and thoughtfully curated, high-end finishes throughout. The gourmet kitchen flows seamlessly into the living and dining spaces, making it ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Retreat to the spacious primary suite featuring a massive walk-in closet that feels like its own private boutique—offering plenty of room for organization and style. Every detail of this home has been carefully crafted to blend comfort, elegance, and functionality. Experience the perfect balance of sophistication and modern living—schedule your private tour today.

Key facts

• New construction
• Walk-in closet
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• HIGH CEILINGS
• NATURAL LIGHT
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath land listed at $580k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $357k (38.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $279k (51.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $279k (51.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.3% in Dallas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#24 in TX, #1,380 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Dallas ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #559 of 826 in TX (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.2%/yr); 249 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,790/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 892% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $62k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $58k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$100k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($545k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $279,008 (51.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 52% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.48% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.34%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 17.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $439,900
• List price: $580,000
• Delta: 31.85%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $226,871
• Equity at exit: $522,510

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.41×
• Total profit: $716,223
• Equity at exit: $1,126,812

Cash invested: $162,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75212

• Rents YoY: -4.2%
• Active inventory: 249
• Price-to-rent: 17.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,790 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,042
• Tax from tax record: −$186 /mo · $2,227/yr
• Insurance: −$242
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$586
• Net cashflow: $-1,265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,391

Max offer price $356,595

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-936	-5% $-1,100	+0% $-1,265	+5% $-1,429	+10% $-1,593
Rent	-10% $-1,485	-5% $-1,375	+0% $-1,265	+5% $-1,154	+10% $-1,044
Rate	-1.0pp $-973	-0.5pp $-1,117	base $-1,265	+0.5pp $-1,415	+1.0pp $-1,568

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $145,000
• Closing costs: $17,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4120 Tram Dr Unit 1019501P Dallas, TX	5.0	2.5	2475	$7,484	$3.02	45d	1	0.85mi
4124 Tram Dr Dallas, TX	5.0	2.5	2478	$8,250	$3.33	23d	1	0.86mi
3618 McBroom St Dallas, TX	5.0	2.5	2449	$8,700	$3.55	0d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $580,000 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $580,000 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $580,000 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $580,000 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $580,000 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $580,000 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $595,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $595,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $595,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $595,000 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $595,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $595,000 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $595,000 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $595,000 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    price $595,000 784-char remark

    Show marketing remark (784 chars)

    Step into modern luxury with this stunning new construction home designed to impress from the moment you walk in. Soaring high ceilings create an open, airy feel, perfectly complemented by an abundance of natural light and thoughtfully curated, high-end finishes throughout. The gourmet kitchen flows seamlessly into the living and dining spaces, making it ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Retreat to the spacious primary suite featuring a massive walk-in closet that feels like its own private boutique—offering plenty of room for organization and style. Every detail of this home has been carefully crafted to blend comfort, elegance, and functionality. Experience the perfect balance of sophistication and modern living—schedule your private tour today.

16. 2026-04-30
    price $605,000 784-char remark

    Show marketing remark (784 chars)

    Step into modern luxury with this stunning new construction home designed to impress from the moment you walk in. Soaring high ceilings create an open, airy feel, perfectly complemented by an abundance of natural light and thoughtfully curated, high-end finishes throughout. The gourmet kitchen flows seamlessly into the living and dining spaces, making it ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Retreat to the spacious primary suite featuring a massive walk-in closet that feels like its own private boutique—offering plenty of room for organization and style. Every detail of this home has been carefully crafted to blend comfort, elegance, and functionality. Experience the perfect balance of sophistication and modern living—schedule your private tour today.

17. 2026-03-31
    listed $615,000 Active 784-char remark

    Show marketing remark (784 chars)

    Step into modern luxury with this stunning new construction home designed to impress from the moment you walk in. Soaring high ceilings create an open, airy feel, perfectly complemented by an abundance of natural light and thoughtfully curated, high-end finishes throughout. The gourmet kitchen flows seamlessly into the living and dining spaces, making it ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Retreat to the spacious primary suite featuring a massive walk-in closet that feels like its own private boutique—offering plenty of room for organization and style. Every detail of this home has been carefully crafted to blend comfort, elegance, and functionality. Experience the perfect balance of sophistication and modern living—schedule your private tour today.

18. 2026-03-18
    historical
19. 2026-02-28
    price $629,900
20. 2026-01-15
    listed $640,000 Active
21. 2025-09-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,227 · $186/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,614 · $884/mo
• Expected delta: +$8,387/yr (+$699/mo · 376.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,481
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,489
• − Property taxes: −$2,227
• − Insurance: −$2,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,678
• − Management: −$2,678
• − Depreciation: −$16,873
• Taxable loss: −$26,364
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,327
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,848/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dallas ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,881
• Composite: 28.41/100
• National rank: #6763
• State rank: #559 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dallas

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #1380

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dallas, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 1,168,437
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,259
• Household income: $59,750
• Rent vs Own: 43.6% rent · 56.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 892.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 26% Black 23% White 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 52% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 138.69%
• Current HPI: 477.2035
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.21%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $595,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $605,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $615,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-18 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $629,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $640,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+13.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,227 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.