521 Sarahs Ln · Locust Grove, GA 30248

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,336 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1999 0.25 ac lot $176/sqft · 5% below area Est $248k · 5% under $18/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming and move-in ready 3 bedroom, 2 bath ranch home conveniently located near schools, shopping, and easy access to I-75! This well-maintained home features brand new flooring and fresh paint throughout, offering a bright and updated feel from the moment you step inside. The functional layout provides comfortable living spaces, while the spacious kitchen and living areas make everyday living and entertaining a breeze. Step outside to enjoy the privacy-fenced backyard-perfect for pets, play, or relaxing evenings. Additional highlights include a 2-car garage, a roof that's only about 6 years old, and a water filtration system that will remain with the home. Don't miss this great opportunity for convenience, comfort, and value all in one!

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1999

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-62 ($-745/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.1% in Locust Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#315 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, schools F.
• Henry County (rural): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #89 of 174 in GA (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 496 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,989 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (92 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henry County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $167k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,681 (16.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.13%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $247,532
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: -5.06%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
521 Sarahs Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,336 (0%)	1mo	$230,000	$172	100
514 Sarahs Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,315 (-2%)	0mo	$225,000	$171	96
481 Sarahs Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,241 (-7%)	1mo	$225,000	$181	81
303 Kellys Walk	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,366 (+2%)	5mo	$212,000	$155	80
963 Gettysburg Way	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,429 (+7%)	3mo	$250,000	$175	77
361 Hemlock Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-6%)	3mo	$155,000	$124	70
1215 Browns Country Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-2%)	4mo	$174,500	$133	67
208 Nadia Ct	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,272 (-5%)	1mo	$165,000	$130	59
176 Rockwood Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-3%)	5mo	$165,000	$127	59
3019 Ryan Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+13%)	4mo	$269,900	$179	57
3026 Ryan Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+13%)	4mo	$270,000	$179	53
300 Leguin Mill Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,220 (-9%)	5mo	$278,000	$228	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-43,657
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-49,658
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30248

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 496
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,967 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$268 /mo · $3,211/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$18
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,045

Max offer price $224,035

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
125 Waters Edge Dr Locust Grove, GA	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,825	$1.38	24d	1	0.09mi
329 Kellys Walk Locust Grove, GA	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,769	$1.14	3d	1	0.23mi
308 Kellys Walk Locust Grove, GA	3.0	2.0	1319	$1,805	$1.37	2d	1	0.30mi
2237 Ross Ln Locust Grove, GA	3.0	2.0	1530	$1,800	$1.18	13d	1	0.32mi
1221 Browns Country Ln Locust Grove, GA	3.0	2.0	1379	$1,759	$1.28	44d	1	0.48mi
206 Nadia Ct Locust Grove, GA	3.0	2.0	1557	$1,785	$1.15	24d	1	0.67mi
163 Brentwood Ln Locust Grove, GA	4.0	3.0	1602	$1,650	$1.03	44d	1	0.69mi
384 Jasmine Dr Locust Grove, GA	3.0	2.5	1719	$1,880	$1.09	44d	1	0.97mi
239 Kings Cv Locust Grove, GA	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,570	$1.06	13d	1	0.99mi
1320 Elmstead Pl Locust Grove, GA	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	2245	$2,104	$0.94	1d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $18 · $216/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Under Contract 758-char remark

   Show marketing remark (758 chars)

   Charming and move-in ready 3 bedroom, 2 bath ranch home conveniently located near schools, shopping, and easy access to I-75! This well-maintained home features brand new flooring and fresh paint throughout, offering a bright and updated feel from the moment you step inside. The functional layout provides comfortable living spaces, while the spacious kitchen and living areas make everyday living and entertaining a breeze. Step outside to enjoy the privacy-fenced backyard-perfect for pets, play, or relaxing evenings. Additional highlights include a 2-car garage, a roof that's only about 6 years old, and a water filtration system that will remain with the home. Don't miss this great opportunity for convenience, comfort, and value all in one!

2. 2026-05-02
   status Back On Market 758-char remark

   Show marketing remark (758 chars)

   Charming and move-in ready 3 bedroom, 2 bath ranch home conveniently located near schools, shopping, and easy access to I-75! This well-maintained home features brand new flooring and fresh paint throughout, offering a bright and updated feel from the moment you step inside. The functional layout provides comfortable living spaces, while the spacious kitchen and living areas make everyday living and entertaining a breeze. Step outside to enjoy the privacy-fenced backyard-perfect for pets, play, or relaxing evenings. Additional highlights include a 2-car garage, a roof that's only about 6 years old, and a water filtration system that will remain with the home. Don't miss this great opportunity for convenience, comfort, and value all in one!

3. 2026-04-21
   status Under Contract 758-char remark

   Show marketing remark (758 chars)

   Charming and move-in ready 3 bedroom, 2 bath ranch home conveniently located near schools, shopping, and easy access to I-75! This well-maintained home features brand new flooring and fresh paint throughout, offering a bright and updated feel from the moment you step inside. The functional layout provides comfortable living spaces, while the spacious kitchen and living areas make everyday living and entertaining a breeze. Step outside to enjoy the privacy-fenced backyard-perfect for pets, play, or relaxing evenings. Additional highlights include a 2-car garage, a roof that's only about 6 years old, and a water filtration system that will remain with the home. Don't miss this great opportunity for convenience, comfort, and value all in one!

4. 2026-04-16
   listed $235,000 New 758-char remark

   Show marketing remark (758 chars)

   Charming and move-in ready 3 bedroom, 2 bath ranch home conveniently located near schools, shopping, and easy access to I-75! This well-maintained home features brand new flooring and fresh paint throughout, offering a bright and updated feel from the moment you step inside. The functional layout provides comfortable living spaces, while the spacious kitchen and living areas make everyday living and entertaining a breeze. Step outside to enjoy the privacy-fenced backyard-perfect for pets, play, or relaxing evenings. Additional highlights include a 2-car garage, a roof that's only about 6 years old, and a water filtration system that will remain with the home. Don't miss this great opportunity for convenience, comfort, and value all in one!

5. 2026-04-15
   historical $235,000 758-char remark

   Show marketing remark (758 chars)

   Charming and move-in ready 3 bedroom, 2 bath ranch home conveniently located near schools, shopping, and easy access to I-75! This well-maintained home features brand new flooring and fresh paint throughout, offering a bright and updated feel from the moment you step inside. The functional layout provides comfortable living spaces, while the spacious kitchen and living areas make everyday living and entertaining a breeze. Step outside to enjoy the privacy-fenced backyard-perfect for pets, play, or relaxing evenings. Additional highlights include a 2-car garage, a roof that's only about 6 years old, and a water filtration system that will remain with the home. Don't miss this great opportunity for convenience, comfort, and value all in one!

6. 2021-04-27
   soldstatus $167,000 Sold 32-char remark

   Show marketing remark (32 chars)

   Home is currently under contract

7. 2021-03-23
   listed $167,000 32-char remark

   Show marketing remark (32 chars)

   Home is currently under contract

8. 2021-03-23
   historical 32-char remark

   Show marketing remark (32 chars)

   Home is currently under contract

9. 2018-09-19
   soldstatus $125,000
10. 2018-09-12
    soldstatus $125,000 Sold
11. 2018-08-07
    status Under Contract
12. 2018-08-04
    price $124,900
13. 2018-08-02
    listed $129,900 New
14. 2015-01-05
    soldstatus $90,000
15. 2015-01-03
    price $90,000
16. 2014-12-19
    soldstatus $90,000 Sold
17. 2014-12-03
    status Pending Offer Approval
18. 2014-12-02
    price $95,000
19. 2014-11-25
    price $95,000
20. 2014-11-07
    listed $97,000 New
21. 2014-11-01
    historical
22. 2014-10-24
    price $98,400
23. 2014-10-24
    status Reduced
24. 2014-10-22
    status Under Contract
25. 2014-10-12
    price $99,400
26. 2014-10-01
    status Back On Market
27. 2014-10-01
    historical
28. 2014-09-19
    price $99,500 Reduced
29. 2014-09-05
    price $99,800 Reduced
30. 2014-09-02
    status Back On Market
31. 2014-09-01
    historical
32. 2014-08-20
    price $99,900 Reduced
33. 2014-08-11
    price $102,300 Reduced
34. 2014-07-30
    price $102,400 Reduced
35. 2014-07-18
    price $102,500 Reduced
36. 2014-05-01
    historical
37. 2014-04-21
    status Back On Market
38. 2014-03-24
    status Under Contract
39. 2014-03-09
    historical
40. 2014-03-09
    status Back On Market
41. 2014-03-09
    status Back On Market
42. 2014-03-08
    price $102,900 Reduced
43. 2014-03-03
    status Back On Market
44. 2014-03-01
    historical
45. 2014-02-20
    price $104,900 Reduced
46. 2014-02-11
    price $105,900 Reduced
47. 2014-01-29
    price $109,900 Reduced
48. 2013-12-31
    price $113,900 Reduced
49. 2013-12-15
    price $114,900 Reduced
50. 2013-12-08
    listed $119,900 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,211 · $268/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,211 · $268/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,602
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$3,211
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,888
• − Management: −$1,888
• − HOA: −$216
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$4,776
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,146
• After-tax cash flow: $401/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henry County
• NCES district ID: 1302820
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $62,594
• Composite: 26.13/100
• National rank: #7279
• State rank: #89 of 174 in GA

Livability — Locust Grove

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #315
• US rank: #17034

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Locust Grove, GA
• County: Henry County · 316,359 people
• City population: 36,038
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 36,038
• Household income: $83,823
• Rent vs Own: 15.8% rent · 84.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 485.0

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 249,041 people
• By 2030: 264,369 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 294,459 · +18.2%
• By 2050: 322,249 · +29.4%
• By 2075: 392,310 · +57.5%
• By 2100: 437,836 · +75.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 37% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.7) · D 64.5% · R 34.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +37.1pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 29.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.7 2020: D+20.5 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+3.2 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.09%
• Current HPI: 203.5358
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.16%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+612.1% since first listed

52 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-05-02 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-04-21 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $235,000 GAMLS
• 2026-04-15 Coming Soon $235,000 GAMLS
• 2021-04-27 Sold (MLS) $167,000 GAMLS
• 2021-03-23 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2021-03-23 Listed $167,000 GAMLS
• 2018-09-19 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2018-09-12 Sold (MLS) $125,000 GAMLS
• 2018-08-07 Pending — GAMLS
• 2018-08-04 Price Changed $124,900 GAMLS
• 2018-08-02 Listed $129,900 GAMLS
• 2015-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2015-01-03 Price Changed $90,000 GAMLS
• 2014-12-19 Sold (MLS) $90,000 GAMLS
• 2014-12-03 Pending — GAMLS
• 2014-12-02 Price Changed $95,000 GAMLS
• 2014-11-25 Price Changed $95,000 GAMLS
• 2014-11-07 Listed $97,000 GAMLS
• 2014-11-01 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2014-10-24 Price Changed $98,400 GAMLS
• 2014-10-24 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2014-10-22 Pending — GAMLS
• 2014-10-12 Price Changed $99,400 GAMLS
• 2014-10-01 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2014-10-01 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2014-09-19 Price Changed $99,500 GAMLS
• 2014-09-05 Price Changed $99,800 GAMLS
• 2014-09-02 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2014-09-01 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2014-08-20 Price Changed $99,900 GAMLS
• 2014-08-11 Price Changed $102,300 GAMLS
• 2014-07-30 Price Changed $102,400 GAMLS
• 2014-07-18 Price Changed $102,500 GAMLS
• 2014-05-01 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2014-04-21 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2014-03-24 Pending — GAMLS
• 2014-03-09 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2014-03-09 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2014-03-09 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2014-03-08 Price Changed $102,900 GAMLS
• 2014-03-03 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2014-03-01 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2014-02-20 Price Changed $104,900 GAMLS
• 2014-02-11 Price Changed $105,900 GAMLS
• 2014-01-29 Price Changed $109,900 GAMLS
• 2013-12-31 Price Changed $113,900 GAMLS
• 2013-12-15 Price Changed $114,900 GAMLS
• 2013-12-08 Listed $119,900 GAMLS
• 2005-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 1999-01-14 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,211 · +13.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.