1020 Harbor Dr · Calabash, NC 28467

$259,465

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,247 sqft · SingleFamily · 119 Days on market

Built 2025 Est $256k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new home features a convenient layout with everything needed for modern living on a single level. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen with the living and dining areas, offering convenient access to an outdoor patio. Three bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, including the luxe owner's suite, featuring an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• En-suite bathroom
• Outdoor patio

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• OUTDOOR PATIO
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-53 ($-639/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (15.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.1% in Calabash — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#487 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 691 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,235 (15.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.88%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $255,635
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1017 Harbor Dr Lot 41	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,421 (+14%)	1mo	$255,000	$179	74
1025 Harbor Dr Lot 37	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,419 (+14%)	0mo	$278,865	$197	73
528 Leeward Way	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,221 (-2%)	14mo	$249,900	$205	69
513 Crooked Pine Pl SW	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,316 (+6%)	1mo	$226,000	$172	68
1 Deer Run Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,217 (-2%)	13mo	$240,000	$197	66
1094 Clubview Ln	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,232 (-1%)	7mo	$215,000	$175	65
749 Landmark Cv	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,258 (+1%)	12mo	$281,000	$223	61
4 Sage Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,292 (+4%)	9mo	$151,276	$117	58
2 Wave Ln	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,332 (+7%)	3mo	$275,000	$206	58
493 Pepper Breeze Ave SW	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,176 (-6%)	16mo	$250,000	$213	56
1089 Harbor Dr SW Lot 5 Albany	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,249 (+0%)	16mo	$268,365	$215	55
1089 Albany C6 - Lot 5 Harbor Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,249 (+0%)	16mo	$268,365	$215	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-45,403
• Equity at exit: $38,687

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-43,768
• Equity at exit: $22,434

Cash invested: $72,650 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28467

• Home prices YoY: -33.7%
• Active inventory: 691
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,202 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,361
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$324 /mo · $3,892/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,270

Max offer price $251,760

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $126	-5% $36	+0% $-53	+5% $-143	+10% $-233
Rent	-10% $-227	-5% $-140	+0% $-53	+5% $34	+10% $121
Rate	-1.0pp $77	-0.5pp $13	base $-53	+0.5pp $-120	+1.0pp $-189

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,866
• Closing costs: $7,784
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1035 Brightwater Way Calabash, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1327	$2,145	$1.62	24d	1	0.16mi
1063 Harbor Dr Calabash, NC	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,200	$1.55	22d	1	0.42mi
834 Greenwood Ct Calabash, NC	3.0	2.0	1475	$2,100	$1.42	15d	1	0.71mi
1420 Sherman Dr Calabash, NC	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1011	$770	$0.76	15d	3	0.79mi
660 Aubrey Ln Calabash, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1081	$2,870	$2.65	15d	69	0.92mi
891 Mh Marina Rd #3 Carolina Shores, NC	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,300	$1.04	15d	1	1.13mi
7112 Town Center Rd Sunset Beach, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	955	$1,400	$1.47	15d	13	1.23mi
31 Quaker Ridge Dr Calabash, NC	2.0–3.0	2.0	1411	$2,292	$1.62	22d	51	1.27mi
1086 Mille Ave Calabash, NC	3.0	2.0	1232	$2,000	$1.62	24d	1	1.28mi
2033 Wild Indigo CIR NW Calabash, NC	3.0	3.0	1457	$1,775	$1.22	24d	1	1.29mi

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,428
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,534
• − Property taxes: −$3,892
• − Insurance: −$1,297
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,114
• − Management: −$2,114
• − Depreciation: −$7,548
• Taxable loss: −$5,072
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,217
• After-tax cash flow: $578/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

Livability — Calabash

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #487
• US rank: #17866

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Calabash, NC
• County: Brunswick County · 131,536 people
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 13,313
• Household income: $75,341
• Rent vs Own: 10.4% rent · 89.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 81.0

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 4% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.90%
• Current HPI: 133.7186
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B