11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #132 · Surprise, AZ
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (shaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 3/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $610 – $1,132
Heat risk 9/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 114°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 16 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 1 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +27.4/30.0
- DSCR +9.6/10.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- 1% rule +7.4/10.0
- Appreciation +5.1/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Livability +3.7/5.0
- Schools +3.3/10.0
- Rent growth +1.1/5.0
$158,500
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Find yourself at home in this gorgeous, 1736 square foot home, located in Rose Garden Resort! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home has a BRAND NEW HVAC unit and has been updated from top to bottom! Inside, you will find new luxury vinyl plank flooring, new carpet, new quartz countertops, new stainless steel appliances, new fixtures, new trim and new paint! Rose Garden Resort offers a community pool, spa & sauna, bocce ball, shuffleboard, and a community center with a fitness room, meeting rooms, game rooms, a library with computers and more! Financing Available if needed through a third party!
Key facts
- 2 parking spots
- Community pool
- Built 1998
Property features AI
Finance
- Other: Directions: Head west on Bell Road from 101 to Sierra Dawn, turn left into community
- Financial info: Monthly land lease fee
- HOA & community: Community pool; Pickleball courts; Gated community; Community spa (heated); Community media room; Coin-operated laundry; Biking/walking paths; Fitness center; Association maintains grounds and trash; No visible truck/trailer/RV/boat allowed; Land lease (monthly)
Exterior
- Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
- Security: Gated community
- Utilities: City water; Public sewer
- Home design: Manufactured/Mobile home; Leasehold ownership
- Construction: Wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof
- Exterior features: Storage; Gravel/stone front yard; Gravel/stone backyard
Interior
- Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen
- Bedrooms: Up to 3 possible bedrooms
- Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
- Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
- Interior features: High-speed internet; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; 3/4 bath in primary bedroom; Dual-pane windows; Living room fireplace
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $158k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $462 ($6k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $158k).
- Recommended offer: $154k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
- Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 76 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- In year one you build about $1k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $280 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
- Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
- Current owner paid $118k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.24% ✓
- Cap rate
- 9.79%
- Cash-on-cash
- 12.49%
- DSCR
- 1.56
- GRM
- 6.7
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $84,263
- List price
- $158,500
- Delta
- 88.10%
- Verdict
- OVERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #131 | 0.00mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,680 (-3%) | 5mo | $122,000 | $73 | 85 |
| 11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #20 | 0.19mi | 3/2.0 | 1,716 (-1%) | 6mo | $50,000 | $29 | 84 |
| 11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #339 | 0.00mi | 3/2.0 | 1,680 (-3%) | 16mo | $99,000 | $59 | 81 |
| 11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #261 | 0.00mi | 3/2.0 | 1,624 (-6%) | 12mo | $149,900 | $92 | 80 |
| 11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #80 | 0.00mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,536 (-12%) | 1mo | $120,000 | $78 | 75 |
| 11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #372 | 0.00mi | 3/2.0 | 1,560 (-10%) | 11mo | $93,000 | $60 | 74 |
| 11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #17 | 0.00mi | 3/2.0 | 1,904 (+10%) | 17mo | $120,000 | $63 | 70 |
| 11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #28 | 0.00mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,568 (-10%) | 12mo | $34,000 | $22 | 69 |
| 11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #36 | 0.47mi | 3/2.0 | 1,708 (-2%) | 12mo | $135,000 | $79 | 65 |
| 11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #262 | 0.00mi | 3/2.0 | 1,493 (-14%) | 16mo | $125,000 | $84 | 63 |
| 11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #29 | 0.19mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,534 (-12%) | 5mo | $73,500 | $48 | 62 |
| 16101 N El Mirage Rd #361 | 0.74mi | 3/2.0 | 1,792 (+3%) | 12mo | $164,000 | $92 | 50 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
0.18% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 9.7%
- Equity multiple
- 1.46×
- Total profit
- $20,367
- Equity at exit
- $47,430
- IRR
- 12.3%
- Equity multiple
- 2.26×
- Total profit
- $55,722
- Equity at exit
- $58,149
Cash invested: $44,380 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Arizona
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 85378
- Home prices YoY
- 0.1%
- Rents YoY
- -5.5%
- Active inventory
- 76
- Price-to-rent
- 6.7×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,971 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$831
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$198 /mo · $2,378/yr
- Insurance
- −$66
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$414
- Net cashflow
- $462
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $39,625
- Closing costs
- $4,755
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 34 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11402 W Hutton Dr Surprise, AZ | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1600 | $1,800 | $1.12 | 24d | 1 | 0.24mi |
| 11345 W Loma Blanca Dr Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1368 | $1,930 | $1.41 | 44d | 1 | 0.29mi |
| 11417 W Amber Trl Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1130 | $1,750 | $1.55 | 5d | 1 | 0.30mi |
| 16608 N 113th Dr Surprise, AZ | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1571 | $1,900 | $1.21 | 44d | 1 | 0.32mi |
| 11554 W Mule Deer Ct Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1963 | $1,816 | $0.93 | 44d | 1 | 0.62mi |
| 17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 2 Surprise, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1078 | $1,732 | $1.61 | 24d | 1 | 0.69mi |
| 17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 3 Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1183 | $1,822 | $1.54 | 24d | 1 | 0.69mi |
| 17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1078 | $1,813 | $1.68 | 13d | 1 | 0.76mi |
| 17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1183 | $1,981 | $1.67 | 2d | 1 | 0.76mi |
| 17590 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1737 | $1,695 | $0.98 | 24d | 1 | 0.80mi |
| 17590 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1737 | $1,695 | $0.98 | 5d | 1 | 0.80mi |
| 12121 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1680 | $1,999 | $1.19 | 24d | 1 | 0.82mi |
| 15204 N El Frio Ct El Mirage, AZ | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1978 | $2,019 | $1.02 | 3d | 1 | 0.83mi |
| 12134 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1680 | $1,950 | $1.16 | 24d | 1 | 0.83mi |
| 12128 W Tara Ln El Mirage, AZ | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2117 | $2,145 | $1.01 | 1d | 1 | 0.85mi |
| 12128 W Tara Ln El Mirage, AZ | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2117 | $2,145 | $1.01 | 18d | 1 | 0.85mi |
| 12204 W Ocotillo Ln El Mirage, AZ | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2117 | $1,949 | $0.92 | 24d | 1 | 0.89mi |
| 14815 N Tonya Cir El Mirage, AZ | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1642 | $2,040 | $1.24 | 44d | 1 | 0.91mi |
| 15109 N Verbena St El Mirage, AZ | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1642 | $1,869 | $1.14 | 44d | 1 | 0.93mi |
| 14809 N El Frio Cir El Mirage, AZ | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1459 | $2,199 | $1.51 | 22d | 1 | 0.96mi |
| 14809 N El Frio Cir El Mirage, AZ | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1700 | $2,300 | $1.35 | 24d | 1 | 0.96mi |
| 11759 W Banff Ln El Mirage, AZ | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1495 | $2,000 | $1.34 | 44d | 1 | 1.00mi |
| 15620 N El Mirage Rd Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1310 | $1,599 | $1.22 | 24d | 2 | 1.05mi |
| 11439 W Ashley Chantil Dr Surprise, AZ | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1949 | $1,995 | $1.02 | 44d | 1 | 1.07mi |
| 11429 W Austin Thomas Dr Surprise, AZ | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1536 | $1,875 | $1.22 | 44d | 1 | 1.13mi |
| 16629 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1052 | $1,462 | $1.39 | 2d | 3 | 1.13mi |
| 16520 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ | 2.0–3.0 | 2.5 | 1267 | $1,850 | $1.46 | 2d | 17 | 1.22mi |
| 11476 W Madisen Ellise Dr Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1301 | $2,070 | $1.59 | 44d | 1 | 1.22mi |
| 11319 W Madisen Ellise Dr Surprise, AZ | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1949 | $2,500 | $1.28 | 24d | 1 | 1.25mi |
| 11319 W Madisen Ellise Dr Surprise, AZ | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1949 | $2,500 | $1.28 | 44d | 1 | 1.25mi |
| 11755 W Thompson Ranch Rd El Mirage, AZ | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 936 | $2,771 | $2.96 | 1d | 1 | 1.35mi |
| 14715 N 124th Ave El Mirage, AZ | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1534 | $2,010 | $1.31 | 44d | 1 | 1.47mi |
| 12437 W Via Camille El Mirage, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1534 | $1,875 | $1.22 | 17d | 1 | 1.49mi |
| 12438 W Hearn Rd El Mirage, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1308 | $1,595 | $1.22 | 24d | 1 | 1.49mi |
Listing history 24 events
-
2026-06-18days on market $158,500 Active 42 DOM
-
2026-06-17status $158,500 Active 41 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $158,500 Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale 41 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $158,500 Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale 40 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $158,500 Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale 39 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $158,500 Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale 37 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $158,500 Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale 33 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $158,500 Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale 32 DOM
-
2026-06-07statusdays on market $158,500 Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale 31 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $158,500 Active 28 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $158,500 Active 27 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $158,500 Active 26 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $158,500 Active 25 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $158,500 Active 24 DOM
-
2026-05-07$158,500 Active 546-char remark
-
2025-06-24historical
-
2025-03-03price $159,900
-
2025-01-23$164,500 Active
-
2024-12-06soldstatus $117,500 Closed
Show marketing remark (599 chars)
Find yourself at home in this gorgeous, 1736 square foot home, located in Rose Garden Resort! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home has a BRAND NEW HVAC unit and has been updated from top to bottom! Inside, you will find new luxury vinyl plank flooring, new carpet, new quartz countertops, new stainless steel appliances, new fixtures, new trim and new paint! Rose Garden Resort offers a community pool, spa & sauna, bocce ball, shuffleboard, and a community center with a fitness room, meeting rooms, game rooms, a library with computers and more! Financing Available if needed through a third party!
-
2024-11-25status Pending
Show marketing remark (599 chars)
Find yourself at home in this gorgeous, 1736 square foot home, located in Rose Garden Resort! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home has a BRAND NEW HVAC unit and has been updated from top to bottom! Inside, you will find new luxury vinyl plank flooring, new carpet, new quartz countertops, new stainless steel appliances, new fixtures, new trim and new paint! Rose Garden Resort offers a community pool, spa & sauna, bocce ball, shuffleboard, and a community center with a fitness room, meeting rooms, game rooms, a library with computers and more! Financing Available if needed through a third party!
-
2024-11-19price $117,500
Show marketing remark (599 chars)
Find yourself at home in this gorgeous, 1736 square foot home, located in Rose Garden Resort! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home has a BRAND NEW HVAC unit and has been updated from top to bottom! Inside, you will find new luxury vinyl plank flooring, new carpet, new quartz countertops, new stainless steel appliances, new fixtures, new trim and new paint! Rose Garden Resort offers a community pool, spa & sauna, bocce ball, shuffleboard, and a community center with a fitness room, meeting rooms, game rooms, a library with computers and more! Financing Available if needed through a third party!
-
2024-11-05price $124,000
Show marketing remark (599 chars)
Find yourself at home in this gorgeous, 1736 square foot home, located in Rose Garden Resort! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home has a BRAND NEW HVAC unit and has been updated from top to bottom! Inside, you will find new luxury vinyl plank flooring, new carpet, new quartz countertops, new stainless steel appliances, new fixtures, new trim and new paint! Rose Garden Resort offers a community pool, spa & sauna, bocce ball, shuffleboard, and a community center with a fitness room, meeting rooms, game rooms, a library with computers and more! Financing Available if needed through a third party!
-
2024-09-19price $129,900
Show marketing remark (599 chars)
Find yourself at home in this gorgeous, 1736 square foot home, located in Rose Garden Resort! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home has a BRAND NEW HVAC unit and has been updated from top to bottom! Inside, you will find new luxury vinyl plank flooring, new carpet, new quartz countertops, new stainless steel appliances, new fixtures, new trim and new paint! Rose Garden Resort offers a community pool, spa & sauna, bocce ball, shuffleboard, and a community center with a fitness room, meeting rooms, game rooms, a library with computers and more! Financing Available if needed through a third party!
-
2024-09-06$130,000 Active
Show marketing remark (599 chars)
Find yourself at home in this gorgeous, 1736 square foot home, located in Rose Garden Resort! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home has a BRAND NEW HVAC unit and has been updated from top to bottom! Inside, you will find new luxury vinyl plank flooring, new carpet, new quartz countertops, new stainless steel appliances, new fixtures, new trim and new paint! Rose Garden Resort offers a community pool, spa & sauna, bocce ball, shuffleboard, and a community center with a fitness room, meeting rooms, game rooms, a library with computers and more! Financing Available if needed through a third party!
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
- Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $23,657
- − Mortgage interest
- −$8,878
- − Property taxes
- −$2,378
- − Insurance
- −$792
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,893
- − Management
- −$1,893
- − Depreciation
- −$4,611
- Taxable income
- $3,213
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$771
- After-tax cash flow
- $4,774/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos
This beautifully updated mobile home is move-in ready with new finishes and recent updates, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
- Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
- Both New outdoor lighting — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
Renovation cost estimate screening
Value-add ROI direction
- Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
- Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
- Both New outdoor lighting — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Dysart Unified District (4243)
- NCES district ID
- 0402690
- Math proficiency
- 34% ▼ -10.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 40% ▼ -5.00%
- Median HH income
- $58,033
- Composite
- 32.76/100
- National rank
- #5634
- State rank
- #73 of 249 in AZ
Livability — Surprise
- Score
- 74/100
- State rank
- #19
- US rank
- #4616
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Surprise, AZ
- County
- Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
- City population
- 160,031
- Metro
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- Population (ZIP)
- 9,765
- Household income
- $56,444
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 510.0
Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 4,979,203 people
- By 2030
- 5,378,229 · +8.0%
- By 2040
- 6,156,598 · +23.6%
- By 2050
- 6,872,376 · +38.0%
- By 2075
- 8,401,270 · +68.7%
- By 2100
- 9,247,439 · +85.7%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Native American 1%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 31% Cuban 3%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 2% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 9% · Canada, Guatemala
- Languages at home
- 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Arabic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa
- 2024 margin
- Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▲ 0.18%
- Current HPI
- 287.1228
- Rent YoY
- ▼ -5.53%
- Metro
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 4.54%
- F500 in state
- 20
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 2 | $13B |
|
||
| Mining / Metals | 1 | $23B |
|
||
| Environmental Services | 1 | $16B |
|
||
| Metals / Steel | 1 | $14B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $9B |
|
||
| Homebuilding | 1 | $8B |
|
||
Price history
+21.9% since first listed12 events — show timeline
- 2026-06-17 Relisted — ARMLS
- 2026-06-04 Contingent — ARMLS
- 2026-05-07 Listed $158,500 ARMLS
- 2025-06-24 Listing Removed — ARMLS
- 2025-03-03 Price Changed $159,900 ARMLS
- 2025-01-23 Listed $164,500 ARMLS
- 2024-12-06 Sold (MLS) $117,500 ARMLS
- 2024-11-25 Pending — ARMLS
- 2024-11-19 Price Changed $117,500 ARMLS
- 2024-11-05 Price Changed $124,000 ARMLS
- 2024-09-19 Price Changed $129,900 ARMLS
- 2024-09-06 Listed $130,000 ARMLS
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
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