612 N Cascade Dr #25 · Woodburn, OR 97071

$49,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1993 $60/sqft · 18% above area Est $42k · 18% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Best deal on the market! Affordable living with low space rent in convenient location! This single wide is move in ready in great 55+ park. Small, but mighty, has everything you need with laundry hook-ups and spacious lot. Beautiful light fixture in kitchen sets the mood for quaint and charming living.

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• Convenient location
• Laundry hook-ups

Tags

• LAUNDRY HOOK-UPS
• SPACIOUS LOT
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $957 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.3% vs local median 3.1% in Woodburn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#91 in OR, #4,490 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B; Watch: crime D+, schools D, commute D.
• Woodburn SD 103 (town): math 20% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #169 of 183 in OR (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 306 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $48,499 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 82.04%
• DSCR: 4.65
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $42,488
• List price: $49,999
• Delta: 17.68%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
612 N Cascade Dr #19	0.00mi	2/1.0	800 (-5%)	1mo	$40,000	$50	91
612 N Cascade Dr #10	0.00mi	2/1.0	784 (-7%)	17mo	$45,000	$57	75
16688 OR-99 Hwy #36	0.71mi	2/2.0	924 (+10%)	22mo	$90,000	$97	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 82.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.77×
• Total profit: $52,761
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 85.6%
• Equity multiple: 9.86×
• Total profit: $124,036
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97071

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 306
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,594 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $227/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $957

Break-even live

Break-even rent $382

Max offer price $49,999

Occupancy floor 35%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1341 W Hayes St Unit 02 Woodburn, OR	2.0	1.0	891	$1,495	$1.68	44d	1	0.20mi
1560 Newberg Hwy Unit 180-25 Woodburn, OR	2.0	1.0	930	$1,350	$1.45	14d	1	0.23mi
1560 Newberg Hwy Unit 180-29 Woodburn, OR	2.0	1.0	930	$1,350	$1.45	44d	1	0.23mi
770 Evergreen Rd Unit 06 Woodburn, OR	1.0	1.0	720	$1,250	$1.74	23d	1	0.34mi
1208 Newberg Hwy Unit 103-A Woodburn, OR	2.0	1.0	960	$1,795	$1.87	44d	1	0.34mi
1208 Newberg Hwy Woodburn, OR	2.0	1.0	960	$1,795	$1.87	2d	1	0.34mi
300 S Evergreen Rd Woodburn, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	774	$1,770	$2.29	12d	1	0.55mi
1123 N 3rd St Unit 1125 Woodburn, OR	2.0	1.0	777	$1,595	$2.05	14d	1	0.78mi
311 S Evergreen Rd Woodburn, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	882	$1,780	$2.02	2d	1	0.86mi
477 Broadway St Unit 1 Woodburn, OR	2.0	1.0	684	$1,495	$2.19	44d	1	0.88mi
2100 Arney Ln Woodburn, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	887	$1,999	$2.25	3d	13	0.94mi
1601 N Front St Woodburn, OR	2.0	1.0	828	$1,280	$1.55	2d	1	1.00mi
398 Stacy Allison Way Woodburn, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1008	$2,087	$2.07	2d	108	1.00mi
1398 E Cleveland St Woodburn, OR	2.0	1.5	992	$1,595	$1.61	2d	1	1.29mi
1430 E Cleveland St Woodburn, OR	2.0	2.0	860	$1,708	$1.99	2d	3	1.32mi
1458 E Cleveland St Woodburn, OR	1.0	1.0	608	$1,295	$2.13	23d	1	1.36mi
8123 McCormick St Woodburn, OR	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,250	$2.05	14d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,999 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,999 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,999 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,999 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,999 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $49,999 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,999 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,999 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $49,999 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $49,999 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,999 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,999 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,999 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,999 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $49,999 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-04-20
    listed $49,999 Active 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    Best deal on the market! Affordable living with low space rent in convenient location! This single wide is move in ready in great 55+ park. Small, but mighty, has everything you need with laundry hook-ups and spacious lot. Beautiful light fixture in kitchen sets the mood for quaint and charming living.

17. 2026-04-18
    historical
18. 2026-04-14
    price $49,999
19. 2026-02-03
    price $60,000
20. 2025-12-05
    listed $65,000 Active
21. 2012-09-27
    historical
22. 2008-04-28
    listed $9,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $227 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $485 · $40/mo
• Expected delta: +$258/yr (+$21/mo · 113.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,126
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$227
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,530
• − Management: −$1,530
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $11,333
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,720
• After-tax cash flow: $8,766/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Woodburn SD 103
• NCES district ID: 4113530
• Math proficiency: 20% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,033
• Composite: 24.9/100
• National rank: #12993
• State rank: #169 of 183 in OR

Livability — Woodburn

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #91
• US rank: #4490

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living B Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Woodburn, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 33,123
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 33,123
• Household income: $70,938
• Rent vs Own: 36.1% rent · 63.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1039.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% White 34% Two or more races 22% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 43% English-only · Spanish 53% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -353.43%
• Current HPI: 297.3113
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+426.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $49,999 WVMLS
• 2026-04-18 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $49,999 WVMLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $60,000 WVMLS
• 2025-12-05 Listed $65,000 WVMLS
• 2012-09-27 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2008-04-28 Listed $9,500 WVMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2018): $227 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.