204 Holly Dr · Natchez, MS 39120

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 984 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1955 0.25 ac lot Est $98k · 27% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is located in Eastbrook Subdivision and offers great potential for investors or first-time buyers. The property needs some tender loving care and is ready for your personal touch and updates. No appliances are included. With a little vision and effort, this home could be transformed into a comfortable residence or valuable investment opportunity.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1955

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.25 acre

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car carport; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence (house); One level
• Construction: Vinyl exterior; Slab foundation; Built (year source: assessor)
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Other exterior features

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Central heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $278 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 4.3% in Natchez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#156 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Natchez-Adams School District (town): math 8% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #114 of 130 in MS (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 283 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Adams County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 92% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,125 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.52%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $98,400
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
811 Kenwood Ln	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,005 (+2%)	3mo	$105,000	$104	89
1301 Westwood Rd	0.34mi	3/1.0	965 (-2%)	2mo	$109,000	$113	79
209 Holly Dr	0.06mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,032 (+5%)	20mo	$109,500	$106	67
12 Maplewood Ln	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	912 (-7%)	2mo	$99,500	$109	66
25 Maplewood Ln	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	951 (-3%)	19mo	$95,000	$100	56
1501 Eastwood Rd	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	897 (-9%)	5mo	$54,500	$61	54
3703 Sherwood Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,100 (+12%)	13mo	$106,000	$96	54
302 Holly Dr	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+12%)	24mo	$118,500	$108	52
8 Oakwood Ln	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,076 (+9%)	13mo	$99,000	$92	51
1306 Eastwood Rd	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,061 (+8%)	12mo	$90,000	$85	50
19 Beechwood Ln	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	873 (-11%)	12mo	$69,500	$80	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,617
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $20,316
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39120

• Active inventory: 283
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,317 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $663/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $278

Break-even live

Break-even rent $966

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $348	-5% $313	+0% $278	+5% $242	+10% $207
Rent	-10% $174	-5% $226	+0% $278	+5% $330	+10% $382
Rate	-1.0pp $341	-0.5pp $309	base $278	+0.5pp $245	+1.0pp $212

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    remarks 376-char remark
14. 2026-06-04
    listed $125,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $663 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $988 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$325/yr (+$27/mo · 49.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 92% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,804
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$663
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,264
• − Management: −$1,264
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $1,349
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$324
• After-tax cash flow: $3,007/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natchez-Adams School District
• NCES district ID: 2803030
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $28,288
• Composite: 10.41/100
• National rank: #9785
• State rank: #114 of 130 in MS

Livability — Natchez

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #156
• US rank: #15334

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Natchez, MS
• Population (ZIP): 29,212

Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,614 people
• By 2030: 27,405 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 24,914 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 22,554 · -21.2%
• By 2075: 17,096 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 12,156 · -57.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% White 37% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Adams

• 2024 margin: D (+13.9) · D 56.5% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: 15.6pp · 2024: 13.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.9 2020: D+16.1 2016: D+14.7 2012: D+18.0 2008: D+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.67%
• Current HPI: 112.2371
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $125,000 MLSU
• 2004-01-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $663 · +20.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.