455 Yellow Belle Dr · Pageland, SC 29728

$214,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,442 sqft · SingleFamily · 81 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $257k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Quick move in available! Move in to your beautifully upgraded townhome by the Spring. This Poplar townhome plan has an open floorplan on the main level with kitchen, dining room, great room, and half bath. Kitchen includes a large Island, upgraded Quartz counter tops and Stainless Steel appliances! Upstairs will have 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms and a laundry room with Washer & Dryer included. Schedule your visit to learn more!

Key facts

• Laundry room
• Open floorplan
• Large island

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• LARGE ISLAND
• UPGRADED QUARTZ COUNTER TOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• HARD SURFACE FLOORING
• LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listed as Active with list price available (spec home)

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Utilities: Central air (listed under cooling)
• Home design: Single-family property (Spec / Poplar Quick Move In)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,442

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Central air
• Interior features: Central air conditioning

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-200 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (13.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (24.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.0% in Pageland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#352 in SC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield 01 (rural): math 25% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #55 of 80 in SC (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Petersburg Primary (434 students, 100% FRL); New Heights Middle (math 11% / reading 23%, grade F, #191 of 229 statewide, top 85%, 531 students, 100% FRL); Central High (math 27% / reading 72%, grade D, #151 of 196 statewide, top 79%, 644 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 63% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; 145 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Chesterfield County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,759 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.99%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $256,676
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
181 Duncan Rd	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-0%)	4mo	$180,000	$125	77
314 S Elm St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,364 (-5%)	2mo	$230,000	$169	57
1189 W Elizabeth St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,557 (+8%)	3mo	$276,200	$177	54
1014 W Sewell St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,329 (-8%)	13mo	$240,000	$181	49
1200 W Elizabeth St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,277 (-11%)	8mo	$255,000	$200	44
1213 W Elizabeth St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,261 (-13%)	15mo	$225,000	$178	39
1019 W Sewell St	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,248 (-14%)	11mo	$155,000	$124	35
706 W Godfrey St	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,242 (-14%)	17mo	$265,000	$213	32
314 Cato Heights Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,283 (-11%)	22mo	$263,000	$205	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $104,379
• Equity at exit: $193,680

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.27×
• Total profit: $317,442
• Equity at exit: $417,678

Cash invested: $60,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29728

• Home prices YoY: 19.9%
• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,628 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$269 /mo · $3,225/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $-200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,881

Max offer price $186,057

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-51	-5% $-126	+0% $-200	+5% $-274	+10% $-349
Rent	-10% $-329	-5% $-264	+0% $-200	+5% $-136	+10% $-71
Rate	-1.0pp $-92	-0.5pp $-145	base $-200	+0.5pp $-256	+1.0pp $-312

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,748
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,531
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$3,225
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,562
• − Management: −$1,562
• − Depreciation: −$6,254
• Taxable loss: −$6,191
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,486
• After-tax cash flow: $-914/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield 01
• NCES district ID: 4501560
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $33,946
• Composite: 25.04/100
• National rank: #7547
• State rank: #55 of 80 in SC

Livability — Pageland

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #352
• US rank: #24948

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 9,470
• Population (ZIP): 9,470

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,632 people
• By 2030: 43,331 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 40,218 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 36,847 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 29,636 · -33.6%
• By 2100: 23,536 · -47.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Black 38% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.1) · D 35.5% · R 63.5% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.1pp toward R · 2008: -3.0pp · 2024: -28.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.1 2020: R+20.5 2016: R+14.3 2012: R+3.3 2008: R+3.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 49.76%
• Current HPI: 299.8227
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B