Piper Plan · Palm Coast, FL 32164

$229,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,466 sqft · Townhouse · 405 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Piper is the perfect combination of efficient space and endless style. This one-car garage floor plan offers a warm and welcoming feeling from the first step. Gather with friends and family in the large great room. Enjoy the fresh air outside on your patio. Upstairs, two spacious bedrooms share a hall bath. Your grand owner's suite exudes luxury, with its dual vanity bath and expansive walk-in closet. It will only take one look to see that the Piper is just right for you.

Key facts

• Central island
• One car garage
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• ONE CAR GARAGE
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• CENTRAL ISLAND
• OPTIONAL LANAI
• EXPANSIVE WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $229,990

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Piper plan (new construction plan); Located in Palm Coast, FL

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Central Air
• Interior features: Central air conditioning

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $199 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (1.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.8% in Palm Coast — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#478 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Flagler (rural): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #20 of 73 in FL (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1367 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,588 units permitted in Flagler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Flagler County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 405 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,391 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 405 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.71%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-28,612
• Equity at exit: $34,292

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-24,541
• Equity at exit: $19,885

Cash invested: $64,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32164

• Home prices YoY: -6.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1367
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,264 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$287 /mo · $3,450/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $199

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,012

Max offer price $229,990

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,498
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20 Sabal Bnd Unit 1 Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.5	1466	$2,100	$1.43	21d	1	0.02mi
35 Ocean Crest Way #1124 Palm Coast, FL	2.0	2.0	1264	$3,500	$2.77	23d	1	0.72mi
200 Ocean Crest Dr #1111 Palm Coast, FL	3.0	3.0	1818	$7,000	$3.85	23d	1	0.84mi
12 Dawson Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$2,500	$1.80	23d	1	1.03mi
14 Cedarview Ct Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$2,200	$1.50	23d	1	1.15mi
25 Riverview Bnd N Unit 1546088P Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1819	$2,581	$1.42	14d	1	1.28mi
900 Cinnamon Beach Way Unit 1261621P Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1689	$8,231	$4.87	23d	1	1.30mi
22 Bristol Dr Palm Coast, FL	2.0	2.0	1637	$1,975	$1.21	14d	1	1.30mi
9 Collinson Ct Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1276	$2,250	$1.76	2d	1	1.33mi
15 Crabtree Ct Unit B Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,725	$1.15	14d	1	1.33mi
57 Columbia Ln Unit B Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	2d	1	1.38mi
214 Coral Reef Ct N Unit B Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,850	$1.42	2d	1	1.47mi
35 Andover Dr Unit 1060869P Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1496	$3,150	$2.11	14d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,990 Active 405 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,990 Active 404 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,990 Active 403 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,990 Active 402 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $229,990 Active 400 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,990 Active 399 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,990 Active 397 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,990 Active 396 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,990 Active 395 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,990 Active 394 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,990 Active 390 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,990 Active 389 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,990 Active 388 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,990 Active 387 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 63% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,171
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,883
• − Property taxes: −$3,450
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,174
• − Management: −$2,174
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$1,350
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$324
• After-tax cash flow: $2,716/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagler
• NCES district ID: 1200540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,354
• Composite: 46.35/100
• National rank: #2464
• State rank: #20 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Coast

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #478
• US rank: #8721

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Coast, FL
• County: Flagler County · 113,412 people
• City population: 105,049
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,658
• Household income: $76,399
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1291.0

Population outlook (Flagler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,474 people
• By 2030: 131,864 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 146,176 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 157,398 · +27.5%
• By 2075: 177,990 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 183,381 · +48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 13% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Russian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Flagler

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.2) · D 35.6% · R 63.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: -28.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.2 2020: R+20.8 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -19.89%
• Current HPI: 297.4942
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.18%
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B