3516 Shadowood Dr · Valrico, FL 33596

$484,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,281 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1994 9,600 sqft lot $223/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BRAND NEW ROOF! What a fantastic opportunity to own a beautiful home in River Hills! This home has been meticulously maintained by the original owner. Pulling up to the curb you are greeted with high appeal and an oversized lot. Opening the front door you are instantly moved into a spacious and relaxed environment. This home features high volume ceilings, open floor plan, lots of natural light and many modern conveniences. The living and dining rooms are great for entertaining while the open living space creates comfort and relaxed luxury. The glacier white kitchen is topnotch with black granite counters, stainless steel/black appliances, deep single-basin sink with a designer faucet, break

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• High volume ceilings
• Natural light

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• HIGH VOLUME CEILINGS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NATURAL LIGHT
• GLACIER WHITE KITCHEN
• BLACK GRANITE COUNTERS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exemption present; No community development district (CDD); Lot size about 0.22 acre (75 x 128)
• HOA & community: HOA: Greenacre Properties (fees required); Monthly HOA approximately $223.33 (or $670 quarterly); Association amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, tennis courts, pickleball, basketball court, playground, trails, golf, recreation facilities, gated community, vehicle restrictions, fence restrictions, sidewalks; Association fee includes escrow reserves and private road maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached garage with garage door opener; 2-car garage
• Security: Gated community; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; High-speed internet available; Underground utilities; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story (single level); West-facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on one story
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Patio; Screened patio; Sliding doors; Rain gutters; Sidewalks; Landscaped yard; Mature landscaping; On golf course; Private lot; Paved, privately maintained road; Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Water softener; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full baths
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Open floor plan; Kitchen-family room combo; Solid surface counters; Stone counters; Split bedroom layout; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Window treatments (blinds, shutters)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups; Inside utility

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $485k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-208 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $448k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $382k (21.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $382k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#442 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lithia Springs Elementary School (math 74% / reading 78%, grade A, #198 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 620 students, 22% FRL); Randall Middle School (math 80% / reading 77%, grade A+, #25 of 571 statewide, top 4%, 1,409 students, 16% FRL); Newsome High School (math 64% / reading 77%, grade B+, #55 of 667 statewide, top 8%, 3,203 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools average 19% FRL vs 52% district-wide (33 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 75% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+26 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Hillsborough average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($470k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $162k; list at $485k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $382,391 (21.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.84%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-87,733
• Equity at exit: $72,300

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-76,264
• Equity at exit: $41,925

Cash invested: $135,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33596

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,824 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,543
• Tax from tax record: −$261 /mo · $3,135/yr
• Insurance: −$202
• HOA: −$223
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$803
• Net cashflow: $-208

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,087

Max offer price $448,114

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $66	-5% $-71	+0% $-208	+5% $-345	+10% $-483
Rent	-10% $-510	-5% $-359	+0% $-208	+5% $-57	+10% $94
Rate	-1.0pp $36	-0.5pp $-85	base $-208	+0.5pp $-334	+1.0pp $-462

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $121,225
• Closing costs: $14,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3415 Ranch Rd Valrico, FL	4.0	2.0	3113	$4,425	$1.42	6d	1	0.39mi
5656 Rockfield Loop Valrico, FL	3.0	2.0	1805	$3,000	$1.66	26d	1	0.61mi
5121 Fairway One Dr Valrico, FL	3.0	2.5	2241	$3,500	$1.56	16d	1	0.90mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $223 · $2,676/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $484,900 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $484,900 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $484,900 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $484,900 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $484,900 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $484,900 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $484,900 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   price $484,900 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $494,900 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $494,900 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $494,900 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $494,900 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $494,900 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $494,900 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $494,900 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $494,900 Active 30 DOM
17. 2026-05-21
    status Active
18. 2026-04-30
    status Pending
19. 2026-04-30
    price $494,900
20. 2026-04-10
    listed $474,900 Active
21. 1994-12-13
    soldstatus $161,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,135 · $261/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,025 · $335/mo
• Expected delta: +$890/yr (+$74/mo · 28.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,887
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,162
• − Property taxes: −$3,135
• − Insurance: −$2,424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,671
• − Management: −$3,671
• − HOA: −$2,676
• − Depreciation: −$14,106
• Taxable loss: −$10,958
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,630
• After-tax cash flow: $131/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Valrico

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #442
• US rank: #7901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Valrico, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 65,118
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,757
• Household income: $116,465
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 13% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 11% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.33%
• Current HPI: 301.312
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.06%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+205.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $494,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Listed $474,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $161,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,135 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.