904 Melrose Ave · Victoria, TX 77901

$119,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,180 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1948 0.33 ac lot $101/sqft · 11% above area Est $130k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located at 904 Melrose, this 2 bedroom, 1 bath home offers over 1,400 square feet of living space with a functional and inviting layout. The garage conversion is air-conditioned, creating additional flexible space that can be used as a second living area, office, or bonus room. Inside, you’ll find two spacious living areas along with a dining room that connects directly to the kitchen, making the home feel open and connected. Original hardwood floors run through much of the home and add character and warmth. Out back, the screened-in patio provides a comfortable space to relax, overlooking a large backyard with a storage shed for added convenience.

Key facts

• Garage conversion
• Air-conditioned
• Screened-in patio

Tags

• GARAGE CONVERSION
• AIR-CONDITIONED
• SCREENED-IN PATIO
• LARGE BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Converted garage; 1 carport space
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public water; Public sewer; Public trash collection
• Home design: Single-story; Resale property
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Composition/shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built (year source: assessor)
• Exterior features: Patio; Rain gutters; Outbuilding; Back yard chain-link fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Range; Pantry; Breakfast bar
• Flooring: Laminate; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air (one unit)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Book cases; Ceiling fan(s); Carbon monoxide detector; Tub with shower; Breakfast bar; Pantry
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup inside; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $151 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.7% in Victoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#309 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Victoria ISD (urban): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #645 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 199 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 43 units permitted in Victoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $826 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Victoria County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,915 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.42%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $129,500
• List price: $119,500
• Delta: -7.72%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4606 Evergreen St	0.46mi	3/1.5	1,169 (-1%)	5mo	$159,000	$136	71
1310 E Rosebud Ave	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,096 (-7%)	1mo	$130,000	$119	69
910 E Polk Ave	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,264 (+7%)	4mo	$149,000	$118	68
1304 E Polk Ave	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,264 (+7%)	4mo	$210,000	$166	68
1612 E Mesquite Ln	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,192 (+1%)	0mo	$106,000	$89	67
4713 Dahlia Ln	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,140 (-3%)	0mo	$180,000	$158	67
808 E E Polk	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,003 (-15%)	4mo	$110,000	$110	65
4912 Evergreen	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,194 (+1%)	5mo	$155,000	$130	59
4605 Evergreen St	0.47mi	3/1.5	1,298 (+10%)	3mo	$175,900	$136	57
205 Lariat Ln	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (-8%)	4mo	$126,500	$117	48
1005 Manor Dr	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,322 (+12%)	5mo	$60,000	$45	44
808 Fern Ln	0.73mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,294 (+10%)	2mo	$146,250	$113	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-13,407
• Equity at exit: $17,818

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-13,459
• Equity at exit: $10,332

Cash invested: $33,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77901

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,264 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$627
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,049/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $151

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,072

Max offer price $119,500

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $219	-5% $185	+0% $151	+5% $117	+10% $84
Rent	-10% $51	-5% $101	+0% $151	+5% $201	+10% $251
Rate	-1.0pp $211	-0.5pp $182	base $151	+0.5pp $120	+1.0pp $89

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,875
• Closing costs: $3,585
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3001 Arroyo Dr Victoria, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	857	$1,330	$1.55	44d	4	0.51mi
111 Monterrey Dr Unit A Victoria, TX	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,295	$1.28	44d	1	0.73mi
3104 Sam Houston Dr Victoria, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	925	$1,050	$1.14	44d	2	0.73mi
1906 Sam Houston Dr Victoria, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	678	$1,255	$1.85	44d	9	0.79mi
118 Milann St Unit B Victoria, TX	3.0	1.0	936	$1,175	$1.26	44d	1	0.83mi
114 Avant Garde Dr Victoria, TX	3.0	2.0	1382	$1,595	$1.15	44d	1	0.86mi
2303 N Louis St Unit 2307 Victoria, TX	2.0	1.0	820	$850	$1.04	44d	1	0.94mi
2303 N Louis St Unit 2303 Victoria, TX	3.0	1.0	850	$950	$1.12	44d	1	0.94mi
2406 E Mockingbird Ln Victoria, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1032	$1,300	$1.26	44d	4	1.06mi
2601 Leary Ln #14 Victoria, TX	3.0	2.0	950	$1,195	$1.26	44d	1	1.08mi
407 Versailles St Victoria, TX	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,200	$1.19	44d	1	1.19mi
1605 Bexar Ave Victoria, TX	3.0	1.0	762	$1,395	$1.83	44d	1	1.20mi
305 E Sabine St Unit A Victoria, TX	2.0	1.0	1224	$1,150	$0.94	44d	1	1.29mi
1603 E Brazos St Victoria, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	796	$975	$1.22	44d	6	1.42mi
1810 E Colorado St Victoria, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	907	$1,425	$1.57	44d	8	1.43mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $119,500 Pending 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,500 Active Under Contract 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,500 Active Under Contract 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,500 Active Under Contract 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,500 Active Under Contract 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,500 Active Under Contract 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,500 Active Under Contract 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,500 Active Under Contract 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $119,500 Active Under Contract 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,500 Active Under Contract 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,500 Active Under Contract 25 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,500 Active Under Contract 24 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,500 Active Under Contract 23 DOM
14. 2026-05-07
    listed $119,500 Active 662-char remark
15. 2023-10-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,049 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,187 · $182/mo
• Expected delta: +$138/yr (+$12/mo · 6.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,165
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,694
• − Property taxes: −$2,049
• − Insurance: −$598
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,213
• − Management: −$1,213
• − Depreciation: −$3,476
• Taxable loss: −$78
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$19
• After-tax cash flow: $1,833/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victoria ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844150
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,534
• Composite: 24.98/100
• National rank: #7562
• State rank: #645 of 826 in TX

Livability — Victoria

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #309
• US rank: #6960

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Victoria, TX
• County: Victoria County · 69,915 people
• City population: 69,915
• Metro: Victoria, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,854
• Household income: $57,923
• Rent vs Own: 46.5% rent · 53.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1802.0

Population outlook (Victoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 106,119 people
• By 2030: 113,161 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 127,402 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 141,953 · +33.8%
• By 2075: 179,410 · +69.1%
• By 2100: 200,127 · +88.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% Two or more races 30% White 24% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 35% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Victoria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.6) · D 28.4% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.6 2020: R+38.0 2016: R+40.0 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -127.62%
• Current HPI: 138.3569
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Victoria, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2026-05-29 Contingent — CTXMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $119,500 CTXMLS
• 2023-10-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,049 · -25.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.